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Investing in uncertain times and diversifying
Comments
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Potentially also a nice bounce if the Iran situation is as close to being concluded as is rumoured. It really can't drag on much longer, as once stockpiles run low it will devastate world economies.
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I think we could see (or be seeing) yet another example of market-economy divergence. Economies will be affected even if the war ends soon. Markets are either looking through this, or are waiting to see enough evidence of it - so either forward or backward looking!
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At least bond markets seem to be reacting in an understandable way to rising inflation and geo-political uncertainty. Rates are going up and eventually equities will have to give back some of their recent gains. I see US/Iran and AI financing as being the biggest risks right now.
My DC investments keep gaining, but I've made sure that I don't rely on them for retirement income and I have about 10 years spending sitting in cash at 3.6% interest, so I sleep relatively well, even with the idiots in charge of the asylum.
And so we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.2 -
I don't disagree about markets vs economies, but my point was merely that it will soon become politically impossible for the status quo to go on, and while equities haven't priced in the situation to a large enough extent, we see them react to each piece of positive news.
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Equity markets are being driven by borrowing and circular financing and seem to be ignoring inflation and geo-political problems. I really think that there's a lot of fantasy going on right now and the markets are decoupled from the economy that most people experience.
And so we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.0 -
I don't think that it soon becoming politically impossible for the status quo to go on will actually ensure that the status quo ends.
That's because on one side you have a regime which doesn't particularly care about what its electorate think, and on the other side you have a vain and capricious leader who can't stand again for election himself so isn't scared of losing an election.
It could all run on for a long time yet. The fact that it continuing will cause economic devastation doesn't hasten its end one bit. Both sides are intransigent and vain and neither side is pragmatic or realistic.
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You could be right, although I hope not. We've seen the climb-down several times when TSHTF. Oil prices going parabolic could risk regime change rather earlier than the current timetable, and I think he'd care about that.
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Canada is now officially in a recession.
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Yeah but there have many issues from the 20 2 documentary I watched, their population vs land mass etc.
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In my view it iis unproductive for equity investors to try to predict the future. Events like Iran and Trump are short term, equity investment is for the long term. The chances are that they are resolved in ways you had not considered or that some totally different situation occurs to cause you further concern. Better to maximise diversification and let events take their course.
If short term events are a worrying potential problem for meeting your life objectives you should arrange your finances to avoid any short term dependence on equity returns.
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