Investing in uncertain times and diversifying

masonic

True most of the time. A crash is always coming.

london21

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81976370#Comment_81976370

They have been saying that for some time now.

chiang_mai

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81975793#Comment_81975793

What she also said, in the same breath, was,

"I’m not saying it will happen today, tomorrow, or in 12 months’ time"

.

thunderroad88

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81979673#Comment_81979673

I.e. she has no more idea than the rest of us.

chiang_mai

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81979710#Comment_81979710

It is unsual that a BOE Deputy Gov would comment publically on the state of markets play. I suspect she is merely verbalising what everyone else is thinking and has therefore covered her derriere ..in the event the soft stuff does hit the fan.

chiang_mai

I don't know how everyone else has fared since 28 February but my investments appear to be treading water. I'm down about 1.5% since then and have even added 3% to my US S&P index fund to bring me up to a whopping 28% invested in the US markets, for a total of 44% invested in equities……those levels seem about right to me currently and seem to be complementary to the 7 years income I have allowed for.

Sector wise: my sector allocations range between 7% and 18% with only two of them held down at 2% and 3%….the balance and spread seems about right also. Geographically I'm fairly evenly spread amongst all major regions. I opted to buy the Fidelity S&P tracker rather than use the FTSE All World to increase my US allocations slightly because I wanted to increase my large caps to further reduce risk……my mid/small caps are running about 22% and 13% respectively which seems ample.

I am less and less concerned at the prospect of markets falls. My view is that no amount of diversification will prevent the contagion that stems from a major market crash so it's best to be invested at a level that suits all climates and then forget about it.

thunderroad88

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81981218#Comment_81981218

I sold my HSBC and Fidelity global trackers in mid February as I wanted to have more control over geographic and factor allocations. I still kept my good performing managed funds like Orbis, Artemis and Ranmore which give some US, some Asia and plenty of UK and Europe, but took my global tracker money and bought SPXL and PCT to provide US large cap and tech, AVSG to increase US small cap value, Fidelity Emerging Markets Trust, M&G Asia and Amundi Japan to cover Asia/EM.

Luckily I had only begun the process when Iran started so added a fair bit through March, but still overweight in cash and remaining cautious. My equities are now 50% (was 58% in January) and my regional splits are about 35% US, 30% UK/ Europe, 35% Asia/EM/Japan. Think I may add more in due course to S&P tracker to push US allocation to 40% but watching and waiting to see how and when Iran is resolved. 5% up ytd but not quite recovered to pre war level..

chiang_mai

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81981297#Comment_81981297

Whilst I, like you, am down 1.5% since 29 February, my year to date (which ended 26 April) produced 18.9% for the entire year…..this year may be a very different story.

Global trackers such as HSBC and Fidelity provide good diversification. But when you are already low on the US allocation, it's difficult to increase the US alone, without taking on additional unwanted baggage from other regions also. Ordainarily I might have opted for L&G's US Index but this time I went for Fidelity's S&P 500 index tracker in order to avoid yet more mid and small caps. I was starting to believe that Tech Sector woes may be overdone and that it was time to increase the US in that area…hence my choice.

london21

Up £18,963

5?+%

Wish i never sold in the first place but one lives and learns.

london21

Glad i bought it back, not sure what is going on with Trump but in for a long time. Up £28,954 about 8%