Outgoing export on Octopus going down

Scot_39

Some states - uncle / cousins have fallen foul of tightening in past - uncle now has a 5kW export cap - was 8kW iirc. My cousin - waited 2+ years for an export permit on a new build as well after adding battery/solar.

Last I read their operator was looking at dynamic caps in at least 2 "states" / areas - ACT and all of NSW ? - to replace the now common fixed c5kW cap.

So export only allowed in hours when excess local demand present - probably biased to favour grid level generation.

Not sure the UK is quite there yet - but at 21.5GW total solar - maybe 15GW+ grid level, 32GW (c13GW at say 40% LF) wind and 5GW non load following nuclear - its getting interesting vs summer c26/27GW average demand - if not day time peak.

It certainly makes little sense to pay grid curtailment and balancing costs - and domestic export - at the same time to many of us who are earning from export.

NibblyPig

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81888527#Comment_81888527

Spoken like a politician. My bill has gone up from the standing charge. My 'income' has gone down, except it's not really income, it's just one amount that offsets the amount I owe, I don't have a separate account.

Bit like when they say we didn't put tax up, but instead they just froze tax thresholds which is the same end result but they can technically say they didn't put it up. End result is I am paying more per year.

Fascinated to know how charging me more can help them deliver their promise of my bill going down by £150.

Import unit cost appears to have gone up by 1.5p as well, joy.

They're the ones that encouraged me to pay for my solar install in the first place… and there's 15p difference between the buy and sell price off me. Even taking into account network costs (which I also pay for in my standing charge) is it really not simple profiteering?

Newbie_John

So solar pay off time is increasing, if before you were aiming at 10 years it now will be 12.5.

More like 20 as there will be more changes during that time for sure..

matt_drummer

Transmission costs are part of the unit rate, not the standing charge.

I buy my electricity from Octopus at 7p per kWh but they buy mine at 15p per kWh.

Hardly profiteering is it?

But it is not that simple because electricity doesn't always cost the same amount.

As they are now only going to pay us 12p per kWh they should be able to reduce what we have to pay them to buy theirs, make sense, no?

pensionpawn

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81888650#Comment_81888650

Surely if the SEG rates fall further, without a corresponding fall in import rates, the margin decreases and the payback period increases?

Alnat1

Have there been any changes announced to basic Flux prices or Outgoing Agile formula?

They haven't really been a good option for a few years, would either be worth looking at from March?

QrizB

Have there been any changes announced to basic Flux prices or Outgoing Agile formula?

Octopus's email suggests considering Outgoing Agile as an alternative; I don't think there's been any change to the formula in years, if ever, but it will be more competitive when Outgoing is only 12p.

You can see recent prices on the Energy Stats site:

https://energy-stats.uk/octopus-outgoing-export-pricing/

I've not heard of changes to Flux but that doesn't mean there won't be any.

NedS

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81889121#Comment_81889121

Lets look at an example:

If import prices (SVR) are 30p and SEG rates are 15p, then there is a 15p leverage between what I can sell solar for and the price I pay for import. So I save 15p for every kWh I can consume instead of exporting. If my battery is 10kWh (and I assume I can fully charge from solar and later use 100% per day) I can save 10kWh at 15p = £1.50/day or £547.50 per year.

If import prices remain the same, but SEG rates fall to 12p, then there is now a 18p difference, so I'm now saving 18p for every kWh of solar I can consume rather than importing from the grid at 30p. That 10kWh battery can now save me 10kWh at 18p = £1.80/day, or £657 per year, and as I'm saving over £100 more per year, it will pay for itself even quicker so the payback period decreases.

Similarly, if the import price rises (again increasing the gap between import and export), the payback period decreases.

So any change that increases the gap between import and export prices will reduce the payback period for a battery.

debitcardmayhem

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81889215#Comment_81889215

Sadly your example is woefully short of logic, which part of the country do you live in where you could get a linear PV i.e. the X kWh every day, what happens when you have a surplus of generation and conversely when a shortage.
I like your optimism but the modelling needs a lot of work on it, and it's far too complex for me having been rudely awakened at 5 am by a b****** fox. The example does not take into "loss"(perceived of course) on the excess during summer.

Similarly those who think it's a loss, or an extra cost , it's a perception only. The posters who have been banging on about the FIT and RPI vs CPI are forgetting that they are getting an uplift not a 20% decrease.

pete-20-11

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81889144#Comment_81889144

Will it be more competitive?

Surely that depends on when you export?

Those with big batteries that can avoid exporting during the day and then force export during peak might be better off on agile outgoing, but if guess everyone else would be better on the static 12p rate.