HMRC pension forecast tool wrong

sausage_time

I'm seeing various reports today about a bug in the HMRC pension forecast tool on the web. One example from the Telegraph…

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/state-pensions/state-pension-forecasts-can-be-wrong-hmrc-admits/

Apologies if that is behind a pay wall. I don't subscribe so don't believe so. Other sites are carrying the story too.

Details are sketchy but it seems to be related to contracting out.

Can anyone shed any light on this?

MarlowMallard

I read that article. It's light on detail and repeats the usual "you need 35 years" mistake.

Reading between the lines, the problem may be if you were actually contracted-out of SERPS for years before 2016, but your online record thinks you were contracted-in, the online check-state-pension calculator overestimates your pension (or underestimates how many extra years you need), and it's not easy to deduce this from the information given.

It does seem like a flaw that the calculator doesn't show contracted in/out status year-by-year so you can check for yourself.

DRS1

I believe there is a url you can click while logged in to see your COPE amount which may be a shortcut to seeing whether they have your contracted out status correct. I am assuming of course that if they have a COPE amount for you it is the correct amount! And of course it is not the same as the COD amount is it?

pinnks

That COPE link no longer works but you can get to your COPE, if you have one, using https://www.tax.service.gov.uk/check-your-state-pension/account/cope

sausage_time

My estimate notes I was contracted out, but also says "You cannot improve your forecast any more" from £230.25 per week. Should I take some comfort from that?

My contracted out payments were lumped into my defined contribution scheme (subsequently transferred) and I cannot see any way a value can be attached to this.

GenX0212

COPE doesn't affect your SP forecast?

QrizB

COPE doesn't affect your SP forecast?

Correct. There are a surprisingly large number of people who think their COPE will be deducted from their SP when it's paid - we used to have them asking that question here on a regular basis.

Now HMRC have hidden the COPE figure, we get fewer of those questions.

sausage_time

The thrust of Telegraph (and elsewhere) article is that the pension estimate can be wrong in some circumstances - due to contracted out payments. I'm trying to understand under what circumstances the figure is wrong (and should I be worried).

Dazed_and_C0nfused

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81874923#Comment_81874923

Probably numerous reasons. But if you have now actually accrued £230.25, after loads of post 2016 years, there is almost certainly nothing for you to be worried about.

The exception is if your contracting out was from being a civil servant. If that's the case you can expect the Telegraph to call for your head on a platter shortly!

sausage_time

The exception is if your contracting out was from being a civil servant. If that's the case you can expect the Telegraph to call for your head on a platter shortly!

Not me! Thanks.

Nebulous2

I can't find it now - but the article I read said the error has now been fixed and only impacts people relying on a very early figure - possibly from around 2016, 2017.

A typical click bait story.....