FTSE100 best single year return since 2009.

masonic

talexuser said:

Altior said:

talexuser said:

It's nothing to do with US stocks doing well, no-one could predict that. It's the judgement the UK would do less well than before, which has proven so to be.
I never said anywhere I was 100% UK so that is untrue.
UK outflows in 2016 set a new record, so saying years before anything changed after the brexit vote is clearly not so..

Your posts don't make too much sense. Global stocks have 'outperformed' due to the US.

If you were global with no bias, and went global ex UK, the difference is minimal.

Markets were generally betting on a remain result, and they got it wrong (where Brexit was perceived to have an impact). So you would have to take any measure back to well before the outcome of the vote was concerned. Of course currency speculation played a big part.

Lastly, if the EU is 'the answer', did you have any bias to countries that remain part of it? 

You keep proposing straw man arguments  which have nothing to do with what I posted... if I was this and if I was that, if I had bias to something or other. That the UK has done badly cannot be denied. Before I had significant home bias, removing this and going global ex UK has done much better than if I had stayed where I was. Where the better results came from is immaterial, it was a good call to drop the UK compared to other markets. There was a record outflow from UK after the vote which shows a lot of other people came to the same conclusion. 

It is incorrect to assume that a country has done "badly" because there exists a country that has done better. The US equity market has outperformed historical norms by an exceptional margin. It is the outlier. Mainly due to its sectoral composition.

You keep stating there was a record outflow from the UK after the vote. This makes no sense. The stockmarket is a place where shares are exchanged. For every seller there is a buyer. Gains and losses are determined by the price market participants are willing to trade. There is no evidence of any adverse repricing of UK equities following the referendum vote. If I am missing it, please point it out on my chart. In the absence of a precipitous drop, all that can be said is that trading volumes were in the normal range and there were as many shares bought as sold.

chiang_mai

masonic said:

Altior said:

For what it's worth I am (almost!) completely de-risked, now even from domestic ITs. I have a toe in (about 10% of my portfolio value), and that's about it. Yes that is a risk in of itself, but I have the patience to wait for another buying opportunity. 

That's you @artyboy and @Cus . I've gone from 90% down to 60% over 2025. If equities march much higher I could rebalance down to 50%, but I wouldn't go lower than that. It's certainly shaping up to be an interesting 2026 so far, so perhaps a buying opportunity will present sooner rather than later.

And me too, I've gone from 70%+ to my current 37%, which is my floor.....it's a sign of the times. 

Veloflyer

I couldn't care less about the politics. It's all bread and circuses for the plebs and wars notwithstanding perhaps, I am not sure whether it has much long term bearing on the markets in any event. 

I am still in 2 minds about the US. I appreciate the huge weighting of the magnificent 7, but then again, I see no reason why the US should not continue the way it has been doing for the past 15 years or so. I have nevertheless reduced the weighting of my portfolio to about 65-70% US - diversifying more and hoping the ROW will at least match US growth.   

Altior

Veloflyer said:

I couldn't care less about the politics. It's all bread and circuses for the plebs and wars notwithstanding perhaps, I am not sure whether it has much long term bearing on the markets in any event. 

I am still in 2 minds about the US. I appreciate the huge weighting of the magnificent 7, but then again, I see no reason why the US should not continue the way it has been doing for the past 15 years or so. I have nevertheless reduced the weighting of my portfolio to about 65-70% US - diversifying more and hoping the ROW will at least match US growth.   

The thread is about FTSE 100 performance since 2009 though. Another poster squeezed some politics into it. That's the problem, one can either correct them or ignore them. I chose to correct them this time as it can be done with facts and logic, not politics. Politics can have a huge influence on global equities, no escaping that! 

In regard to the US, for me, fundamentally one has to ask what you are buying with US equities. Valuations should be based on future return expectations. For example, if you purchased one unit of AAPL today, how long would it take to get your money back and go 'net positive', after inflation. US equities traditionally achieve that through buybacks and reinvesting, rather than distributing profits. It might however, already be a bit longer than you might think. 

Some would argue there's a new world order in regard to investing, and traditional valuations are obsolete. It's all sentiment driven. I take the view that the music will stop at some point, as it usually does.

chiang_mai

Veloflyer said:

I couldn't care less about the politics. It's all bread and circuses for the plebs and wars notwithstanding perhaps, I am not sure whether it has much long term bearing on the markets in any event. 

I am still in 2 minds about the US. I appreciate the huge weighting of the magnificent 7, but then again, I see no reason why the US should not continue the way it has been doing for the past 15 years or so. I have nevertheless reduced the weighting of my portfolio to about 65-70% US - diversifying more and hoping the ROW will at least match US growth.   

As others have pointed out, the US CAPE ratio is at 39% whereas it's long term median is 16%. Contrast that to other markets such as the UK where the figures are 16% and 15% respectively and you get an idea. 70% in US markets right now is very brave and I hope that it pays off for you. I on the otherhand have gone from 60% to 24% in the space of the past 12 months....each to their own. 

artyboy

masonic said:

Altior said:

For what it's worth I am (almost!) completely de-risked, now even from domestic ITs. I have a toe in (about 10% of my portfolio value), and that's about it. Yes that is a risk in of itself, but I have the patience to wait for another buying opportunity. 

That's you @artyboy and @Cus . I've gone from 90% down to 60% over 2025. If equities march much higher I could rebalance down to 50%, but I wouldn't go lower than that. It's certainly shaping up to be an interesting 2026 so far, so perhaps a buying opportunity will present sooner rather than later.

I'm at 0% and holding my nerve, given the geopolitical landscape, I would be amazed if a good opportunity didn't appear before long. Meantime I'm still making £50k growth a year from MMFs, which isn't exactly going to drive me into penury when I retire...

Veloflyer

Altior said:

Veloflyer said:

I couldn't care less about the politics. It's all bread and circuses for the plebs and wars notwithstanding perhaps, I am not sure whether it has much long term bearing on the markets in any event. 

I am still in 2 minds about the US. I appreciate the huge weighting of the magnificent 7, but then again, I see no reason why the US should not continue the way it has been doing for the past 15 years or so. I have nevertheless reduced the weighting of my portfolio to about 65-70% US - diversifying more and hoping the ROW will at least match US growth.   

The thread is about FTSE 100 performance since 2009 though. Another poster squeezed some politics into it. That's the problem, one can either correct them or ignore them. I chose to correct them this time as it can be done with facts and logic, not politics. Politics can have a huge influence on global equities, no escaping that! 

In regard to the US, for me, fundamentally one has to ask what you are buying with US equities. Valuations should be based on future return expectations. For example, if you purchased one unit of AAPL today, how long would it take to get your money back and go 'net positive', after inflation. US equities traditionally achieve that through buybacks and reinvesting, rather than distributing profits. It might however, already be a bit longer than you might think. 

Some would argue there's a new world order in regard to investing, and traditional valuations are obsolete. It's all sentiment driven. I take the view that the music will stop at some point, as it usually does.

I am largely in passive global tracker funds plus a passive S&P tracker - CSP1 etc. By their nature heavily US weighted. I am not a great fan of using sentiment or emotion in deciding where to put my hard earned, but I do appreciate the effect of perception - which has a similar esoteric feel. I am also not a great fan of looking at CAPE either - mainly as it is historically based data. I am still largely of the opinion that I would be foolish to deviate the majority of funds away from the US - given most of the world's capital is tied up there, they are by far the largest economy and they have the clout to match.         

Altior

Veloflyer said:

Altior said:

Veloflyer said:

I couldn't care less about the politics. It's all bread and circuses for the plebs and wars notwithstanding perhaps, I am not sure whether it has much long term bearing on the markets in any event. 

I am still in 2 minds about the US. I appreciate the huge weighting of the magnificent 7, but then again, I see no reason why the US should not continue the way it has been doing for the past 15 years or so. I have nevertheless reduced the weighting of my portfolio to about 65-70% US - diversifying more and hoping the ROW will at least match US growth.   

The thread is about FTSE 100 performance since 2009 though. Another poster squeezed some politics into it. That's the problem, one can either correct them or ignore them. I chose to correct them this time as it can be done with facts and logic, not politics. Politics can have a huge influence on global equities, no escaping that! 

In regard to the US, for me, fundamentally one has to ask what you are buying with US equities. Valuations should be based on future return expectations. For example, if you purchased one unit of AAPL today, how long would it take to get your money back and go 'net positive', after inflation. US equities traditionally achieve that through buybacks and reinvesting, rather than distributing profits. It might however, already be a bit longer than you might think. 

Some would argue there's a new world order in regard to investing, and traditional valuations are obsolete. It's all sentiment driven. I take the view that the music will stop at some point, as it usually does.

I am largely in passive global tracker funds plus a passive S&P tracker - CSP1 etc. By their nature heavily US weighted. I am not a great fan of using sentiment or emotion in deciding where to put my hard earned, but I do appreciate the effect of perception - which has a similar esoteric feel. I am also not a great fan of looking at CAPE either - mainly as it is historically based data. I am still largely of the opinion that I would be foolish to deviate the majority of funds away from the US - given most of the world's capital is tied up there, they are by far the largest economy and they have the clout to match.         

It's a different type of sentiment from my observation. App and social media driven, and an almost gaming like mentality. 

We haven't really experienced an extended deep downturn in the app/social media era. Lockdowns should have been, but blink and you missed it. The mega caps soon benefited from the world effectively being shut down for an extended period of time, and governments threw new fiat money everywhere.

It's the whales that will ultimately decide, I guess. How this new world will react, I don't suppose anyone will know for sure.

chiang_mai

Veloflyer said:

I am largely in passive global tracker funds plus a passive S&P tracker - CSP1 etc. By their nature heavily US weighted. I am not a great fan of using sentiment or emotion in deciding where to put my hard earned, but I do appreciate the effect of perception - which has a similar esoteric feel. I am also not a great fan of looking at CAPE either - mainly as it is historically based data. I am still largely of the opinion that I would be foolish to deviate the majority of funds away from the US - given most of the world's capital is tied up there, they are by far the largest economy and they have the clout to match.         

My objective each year is to realise a 12% return on my investments, once I've done that I can derisk and take things easy for the year, I've done similar for many years. I can chose to make that 12% in any one of a number of different markets, the UK, EM, Japan and Europe, all offer opportunities. Last year, for the first time, I accepted that I didn't need to have 60% of my equities invested in the US, just because the US represents 60% of the global market. Instead, I invested across a range of less expensive markets that aren't over priced and that don't carry the same risks plus I sleep well. I'm still invested in the US but only via a very diluted All World Index and only then, to a lesser degree, I traded in my S&P Index because when the markets fall, there's only one way that can go. My EM, Japan and EU funds have EACH returned over 29% over the past twelve months, there are plenty of non-US options out there, ones that don't have concentration risk and sky high valuations. 

Many novice investors have a distrust of historic metrics , at least that's what many say. But wothout historic data, what else is there, perception, emotion, Bloomberg tips! Historic data is far from perfect but it does offer important clues, for those who take the time to study the data and understand it.
  

Veloflyer

chiang_mai said:

Veloflyer said:

I am largely in passive global tracker funds plus a passive S&P tracker - CSP1 etc. By their nature heavily US weighted. I am not a great fan of using sentiment or emotion in deciding where to put my hard earned, but I do appreciate the effect of perception - which has a similar esoteric feel. I am also not a great fan of looking at CAPE either - mainly as it is historically based data. I am still largely of the opinion that I would be foolish to deviate the majority of funds away from the US - given most of the world's capital is tied up there, they are by far the largest economy and they have the clout to match.         

My objective each year is to realise a 12% return on my investments, once I've done that I can derisk and take things easy for the year, I've done similar for many years. I can chose to make that 12% in any one of a number of different markets, the UK, EM, Japan and Europe, all offer opportunities. Last year, for the first time, I accepted that I didn't need to have 60% of my equities invested in the US, just because the US represents 60% of the global market. Instead, I invested across a range of less expensive markets that aren't over priced and that don't carry the same risks plus I sleep well. I'm still invested in the US but only via a very diluted All World Index and only then, to a lesser degree, I traded in my S&P Index because when the markets fall, there's only one way that can go. My EM, Japan and EU funds have EACH returned over 29% over the past twelve months, there are plenty of non-US options out there, ones that don't have concentration risk and sky high valuations. 

Many novice investors have a distrust of historic metrics , at least that's what many say. But wothout historic data, what else is there, perception, emotion, Bloomberg tips! Historic data is far from perfect but it does offer important clues, for those who take the time to study the data and understand it.
  

I'm 61 and perhaps cannot afford a similar risk to you regarding concentration on markets outwith the US to such an extent as I believe this does offer a greater risk than global trackers like VWRP for instance. I do appreciate it may offer greater growth but I am prepared to sacrifice that for lower risk. Each to his own though.

I hear much about the US being over-valued, but my trackers and the S&P are still on the rise and I see nothing at present that demonstrates that it will all come crashing down some time in the near future.

Historic metrics are pretty meaningless. Not even a guide. I have no crystal ball so offer no alternatives to what will happen in the future. AlI I can do is diversify, consider gilts, annuity, cash buffer in case of a crash, read up on what Buffet and others have to say and pray to whichever deity  is flavour of the month.