FTSE100 best single year return since 2009.

masonic

Altior said:

For what it's worth I am (almost!) completely de-risked, now even from domestic ITs. I have a toe in (about 10% of my portfolio value), and that's about it. Yes that is a risk in of itself, but I have the patience to wait for another buying opportunity. 

That's you @artyboy and @Cus . I've gone from 90% down to 60% over 2025. If equities march much higher I could rebalance down to 50%, but I wouldn't go lower than that. It's certainly shaping up to be an interesting 2026 so far, so perhaps a buying opportunity will present sooner rather than later.

GeoffTF

masonic said:

GeoffTF said:

masonic said:

GeoffTF said:

This board was full of people convinced that a home bias was a very bad idea, and then this happens.

Home bias in the form of the FTSE 250 wasn't so harmful, but the FTSE 100 still has a lot of catching up to do: ...

It's interesting that things started to go off the rails for the UK vs ROW from 2015. I suppose it gives some hope that the factors causing the UK to start lagging behind could change.

It helps to only have a home bias at the right times. A low valuation is a good indicator. The obvious thing that happened in 2016 is not likely to be reversed any time soon. Nonetheless, with the US market still sky high, I am inclined to stick with a modest home bias for now.

The UK Dividend Stocks blog does an infrequent valuation analysis on the UK indices, although the last one was a year ago....

So I do not think it is something you can market time.

That said, the US valuation (and proportion of the global index) is extreme enough for me to tilt away from it, but into ROW rather than UK specifically. I've never overweighted the UK by market cap, but in the past I have done very well out of a satellite group of UK small cap investment trusts, but gradually cut these down in more recent years. I am not convinced the conditions where they would flourish again will be seen in the short term, and I'm probably getting to the point I shouldn't be adding unneeded risk to my portfolio.

I do not believe that we can market time either. Nonetheless, I have not done badly. I started buying Vanguard Developed World ex UK at the beginning of 2013. (I was worried about the impact of the growing Europhobia.) My directly held UK stock portfolio had done well, but I cannot claim that was a result of skill rather than chance. I started buying FTSE 100 in 2020, while shifting the remains of my directly held UK stocks. There is survivor bias on boards like this. The unlucky investors went away to lick their wounds long ago.

Veloflyer

I read this thread with interest. My New Year's resolution is to diversify more of my HL portfolio as I am some 80% invested in the US. In addition, I feel something like ishares350 UK Equity Index fund or ishares FTSE 250 is ripe for investment.    

p0lystring

I think a lot of this is just asset prices rising due to weak fiat money.

talexuser

I sold out of the UK soon after the Brexit vote and went World tracker exUK plus various global trusts and it was the best decision I made in 40 years of investing compared to tracking the funds I would have been in staying put. Now there's a hefty lump in capital preservation after some excellent gains... this toppiness can't last forever.

Altior

Just luck though wasn't it, unless you anticipated lockdowns and the AI bubble. It's not a narrative of UK equities being weak, but US ones being on a huge bull (a handful of mega caps, specifically).

Veloflyer

Altior said:

Just luck though wasn't it, unless you anticipated lockdowns and the AI bubble. It's not a narrative of UK equities being weak, but US ones being on a huge bull (a handful of mega caps, specifically).

I am similar in terms of luck over the past 15 years or so, but I now fear I am too heavily US weighted. I also have global trackers as well as S&P trackers, but even globals are 70 odd % US weighted. I also worry about the mega magnificent 7 being over-valued and some correction happening when/if influential folk decide that those 7 imperial stocks don't have any clothes....or at least only wearing underwear.

I am not writing off the US by any means, but given my proximity to retirement,  80% US weighted equity would seem too much.  VEUR or FTSE350 tracker may be a suitable transfer alternative.   

Mind, my nagging doubt to the above is the old concern is that if the US sneezes, the rest of the World catches cold....

    

Altior

Veloflyer said:

Altior said:

Just luck though wasn't it, unless you anticipated lockdowns and the AI bubble. It's not a narrative of UK equities being weak, but US ones being on a huge bull (a handful of mega caps, specifically).

I am similar in terms of luck over the past 15 years or so, but I now fear I am too heavily US weighted. I also have global trackers as well as S&P trackers, but even globals are 70 odd % US weighted. I also worry about the mega magnificent 7 being over-valued and some correction happening when/if influential folk decide that those 7 imperial stocks don't have any clothes....or at least only wearing underwear.

I am not writing off the US by any means, but given my proximity to retirement,  80% US weighted equity would seem too much.  VEUR or FTSE350 tracker may be a suitable transfer alternative.   

Mind, my nagging doubt to the above is the old concern is that if the US sneezes, the rest of the World catches cold....

    

The last sentence is the prescient one. Pretty much everything will sell off. I'm personally not taking a particular view on what will happen or when. I'm just comfortable being out, and have my shopping list prepared for when the cupboards need restocking. 

boingy

TBH I've stopped looking at individual indices. The press are always looking to say "Index x" has set a new record high/low/change.

talexuser

Altior said:

Just luck though wasn't it

No, it was a predictable economic hit from losing free trade with your biggest trading partner, and was proved as such by the record outflows from UK shares in that year.