FTSE100 best single year return since 2009.

Altior

talexuser said:

Altior said:

Just luck though wasn't it

No, it was a predictable economic hit from losing free trade with your biggest trading partner, and was proved as such by the record outflows from UK shares in that year. 

Of course it was. The UK is only a tiny part of global valuations. As is the EU. And there was no loss of free trade! 

talexuser

Good that you agree 

Altior

talexuser said:

Good that you agree 

I don't agree with anything that you have posted on the thread so far.

US equities going on a tear was independent of anything that happened with the UK or the EU, when the UK was in or out. 

So if the Brexit vote (years before anything changed) was why you went from 100% UK to the vast majority US, it was fortune. Nothing wrong with that, better to be lucky than not. 

talexuser

It's nothing to do with US stocks doing well, no-one could predict that. It's the judgement the UK would do less well than before, which has proven so to be.
I never said anywhere I was 100% UK so that is untrue.
UK outflows in 2016 set a new record, so saying years before anything changed after the brexit vote is clearly not so..

Altior

talexuser said:

It's nothing to do with US stocks doing well, no-one could predict that. It's the judgement the UK would do less well than before, which has proven so to be.
I never said anywhere I was 100% UK so that is untrue.
UK outflows in 2016 set a new record, so saying years before anything changed after the brexit vote is clearly not so..

Your posts don't make too much sense. Global stocks have 'outperformed' due to the US.

If you were global with no bias, and went global ex UK, the difference is minimal.

Markets were generally betting on a remain result, and they got it wrong (where Brexit was perceived to have an impact). So you would have to take any measure back to well before the outcome of the vote was concerned. Of course currency speculation played a big part.

Lastly, if the EU is 'the answer', did you have any bias to countries that remain part of it? 

Martico

Both can be true at the same time.
As can the premise that the EU was also weakened by Brexit.
It comes down to cointerfactuals / what-ifs, which can't really be resolved

masonic

As far as stockmarkets go, I'm not really seeing anything in the performance data.

The European index fund is not ex-UK, but its gradient is only slightly steeper than the FTSE 100 over 10 years; over 5 years it has done slightly worse. As Altior says, it is the US that has really pulled away in the 2010s and 2020s (so far).

Altior

Martico said:

Both can be true at the same time.
As can the premise that the EU was also weakened by Brexit.
It comes down to cointerfactuals / what-ifs, which can't really be resolved

I don't really see that. Equity markets typically don't like change. If the politics are being taken out of it, which they should, nobody knew what the end result would look like. It didn't really matter whether it would be net positive or negative for large orgs reporting from the UK, as that wouldn't play out for a long time, and as we know, took much longer than anticipated. 

But I don't see how anyone can claim the UK being in or out of the EU has materially impacted global equity valuations. It's nearly all down to the US performance. The underlying reasons for US performance is another matter!

talexuser

Altior said:

talexuser said:

It's nothing to do with US stocks doing well, no-one could predict that. It's the judgement the UK would do less well than before, which has proven so to be.
I never said anywhere I was 100% UK so that is untrue.
UK outflows in 2016 set a new record, so saying years before anything changed after the brexit vote is clearly not so..

Your posts don't make too much sense. Global stocks have 'outperformed' due to the US.

If you were global with no bias, and went global ex UK, the difference is minimal.

Markets were generally betting on a remain result, and they got it wrong (where Brexit was perceived to have an impact). So you would have to take any measure back to well before the outcome of the vote was concerned. Of course currency speculation played a big part.

Lastly, if the EU is 'the answer', did you have any bias to countries that remain part of it? 

You keep proposing straw man arguments  which have nothing to do with what I posted... if I was this and if I was that, if I had bias to something or other. That the UK has done badly cannot be denied. Before I had significant home bias, removing this and going global ex UK has done much better than if I had stayed where I was. Where the better results came from is immaterial, it was a good call to drop the UK compared to other markets. There was a record outflow from UK after the vote which shows a lot of other people came to the same conclusion. 

Altior

talexuser said:

Altior said:

talexuser said:

It's nothing to do with US stocks doing well, no-one could predict that. It's the judgement the UK would do less well than before, which has proven so to be.
I never said anywhere I was 100% UK so that is untrue.
UK outflows in 2016 set a new record, so saying years before anything changed after the brexit vote is clearly not so..

Your posts don't make too much sense. Global stocks have 'outperformed' due to the US.

If you were global with no bias, and went global ex UK, the difference is minimal.

Markets were generally betting on a remain result, and they got it wrong (where Brexit was perceived to have an impact). So you would have to take any measure back to well before the outcome of the vote was concerned. Of course currency speculation played a big part.

Lastly, if the EU is 'the answer', did you have any bias to countries that remain part of it? 

You keep proposing straw man arguments  which have nothing to do with what I posted... if I was this and if I was that, if I had bias to something or other. That the UK has done badly cannot be denied. Before I had significant home bias, removing this and going global ex UK has done much better than if I had stayed where I was. Where the better results came from is immaterial, it was a good call to drop the UK compared to other markets. There was a record outflow from UK after the vote which shows a lot of other people came to the same conclusion. 

That the UK has done badly cannot be denied.

I'll give it one last go.

Practically every other region has 'done badly' when compared to the US, since 2016.

It has practically nothing to do with the EU. Whatsoever. 

It has almost everything to do with a handful of mega caps, based in the US.

If you think 'we' would be positively booming if we were still EU, you would be wrong. You got lucky.