"Average Earnings Growth" and triple lock

westv

Grumpy_chap said:

Cobbler_tone said:

I was spending £3k a month back then and now I spend around £1k.

What on earth can you spend £3k a month on, every month?

Our annual spending is around that averaged per month.

Cobbler_tone

£3k per month net is our magic number as a couple in retirement. We could always do one more year but the OH is done at 54 and I’ll push to 57. We have talked it through to death but situations around us helped sharpen the focus.

Stubod

Cobbler_tone said:

There must be kids (who are no longer kids) involved, and/or mortgages, unless you don’t eat!
I was spending £3k a month back then and now I spend around £1k.

..no kids, and no mortgage....food bill around 5k per year....largest increases are council tax which has averaged 4.6% per year, and electric at 3.6% per year...food around 1.9% per year..

Cobbler_tone

Stubod said:

Cobbler_tone said:

There must be kids (who are no longer kids) involved, and/or mortgages, unless you don’t eat!
I was spending £3k a month back then and now I spend around £1k.

..no kids, and no mortgage....food bill around 5k per year....largest increases are council tax which has averaged 4.6% per year, and electric at 3.6% per year...food around 1.9% per year..

Not sure how you can reconcile back to 1% a year if you are comparing like for like. Petrol for example was 80p per litre and food will have doubled. 

Anyway, your figures and sounds like you are doing OK.

Stubod

Cobbler_tone said:

Not sure how you can reconcile back to 1% a year if you are comparing like for like. Petrol for example was 80p per litre and food will have doubled. 

Anyway, your figures and sounds like you are doing OK.

..our petrol usage has dropped. In 2000 we spent £780 on fuel, last year we spent £840, so an overall average increase of only 0.3%. Food spend in 2000 was £3,400, last year £5,200, so an average annual increase of 1.9% per year.

Cobbler_tone

Stubod said:

Cobbler_tone said:

Not sure how you can reconcile back to 1% a year if you are comparing like for like. Petrol for example was 80p per litre and food will have doubled. 

Anyway, your figures and sounds like you are doing OK.

..our petrol usage has dropped. In 2000 we spent £780 on fuel, last year we spent £840, so an overall average increase of only 0.3%. Food spend in 2000 was £3,400, last year £5,200, so an average annual increase of 1.9% per year.

Big drop in comparative food spend too. I’ve gone the other way on food but like Waitrose too much!

SnowMan

SnowMan said:

SnowMan said:

The earnings percentage used for the earnings element of the triple lock calculation has been established through custom to be the July 2025 seasonally adjusted total pay including bonuses figure published today (16th September) of 4.7%. The July 2025 figure is the average of the year on year increase in earnings for the 3 months of May, June and July. 

This July 2025 earnings figure can be subject to a small revision when further earnings data is published on 14th October and 11th November. These publications occur before the budget takes place on 26th November, which is when the triple lock increase is usually announced. For example in 2024 the corresponding July 2024 earnings figure of 4% published in September was revised to 4.1% in October and the triple lock increase was based on this 4.1% revised figure.

So while CPI is unlikely to exceed 4.7% and the earnings element will almost certainly bite, there could still be a small revision to the 4.7%. 

The October further earnings data mentioned above has been published today (14th October) and the July 2025 seasonally adjusted total pay including bonuses figure of 4.7% published on 16th September has been revised upwards to 4.8%.
Consequently the anticipated triple lock increase, that should be announced in the budget, should now be 4.8% and not 4.7% unless this July 2025 earnings figure is further revised in the earnings data publication of 11th November. 

The 11th November publication has just been published and there has been no further revision to the July 2025 earnings figure of 4.8%.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/timeseries/kac3/lms/

The triple lock increase should therefore be 4.8%. It is custom and practice that this July figure (after revisions up to the budget date) is used for the earnings element, rather than legislation so we do need to wait for formal confirmation at the budget on 26th November.