"Average Earnings Growth" and triple lock

Cobbler_tone

Dazed_and_C0nfused said:

Qyburn said:

The statement being quoted goes ..

"The government will ease the administrative burden for pensioners whose sole income is the basic or new State Pension without any increments so that they do not have to pay small amounts of tax via Simple Assessment"

They're promising to ease the "administrative burden", not necessarily the tax burden. And pensioners won't have to pay small amounts of tax "via Simple Assessment", that's not the same as saying they won't pay it at all.

Logically if they weren't going to be taxed, there's no "administrative burden" to be eased.

Although RR has now said to Martin Lewis that they would not need to pay any tax, which is clearly different to Wednesday's announcement.

There are plenty of examples (which don’t need listing) which demonstrate that something will/won’t necessarily happen because they once said it.

artyboy

Grumpy_chap said:

QrizB said:

An early election would fix that - "this parliament" could end in ealy 2026

Whilst there is no indication that the next GE will be as soon as that, it does have to be held by summer 2029.
If the current incumbents consider things to be going well, we might reasonably expect the GE to be summer 2028.
If the current incumbents consider things to be going less well, we might reasonably expect the GE to be summer 2029.

Either way, the cynic might interpret the measures announced in this budget with delayed implementation as laying a series of traps:

• eVED from April 2028
• salary sacrifice changes from April 2029
• SP (only) incomes protected from tax until 2030

At the risk of giving the mods a pretext to lock this by making a political comment, bear in mind that the 2011 Fixed Term Parliament Act removed the government's discretion to call a GE whenever they want. 

Obviously they can pass a law to allow it in 2028, but otherwise it's definitely going to be 2029zzz

Grumpy_chap

artyboy said:

At the risk of giving the mods a pretext to lock this by making a political comment, bear in mind that the 2011 Fixed Term Parliament Act removed the government's discretion to call a GE whenever they want. 

Obviously they can pass a law to allow it in 2028, but otherwise it's definitely going to be 2029zzz

2011 Fixed Term Parliament Act.
Repealed in 2022.
Keep up

hugheskevi said:

I do worry this is another well-intentioned measure that will end up being extremely hard to remove.

Yes, it will only need one lot vying for votes to say something like "we will continue to protect those with only the SP from income tax" and the rest will follow in line and, thus, another principle like the triple lock has been created or, call it the Quadruple Lock as mentioned in another thread.

artyboy

Grumpy_chap said:

artyboy said:

At the risk of giving the mods a pretext to lock this by making a political comment, bear in mind that the 2011 Fixed Term Parliament Act removed the government's discretion to call a GE whenever they want. 

Obviously they can pass a law to allow it in 2028, but otherwise it's definitely going to be 2029zzz

2011 Fixed Term Parliament Act.
Repealed in 2022.
Keep up

hugheskevi said:

I do worry this is another well-intentioned measure that will end up being extremely hard to remove.

Yes, it will only need one lot vying for votes to say something like "we will continue to protect those with only the SP from income tax" and the rest will follow in line and, thus, another principle like the triple lock has been created or, call it the Quadruple Lock as mentioned in another thread.

Doh! Oh well, bring it on. Sooner the better.

Silvertabby

jem16 said:

Silvertabby said:

onomatopoeia99 said:

JoeCrystal said:

So basically anyone with high SERPs/2SP and deferred as it's only source of income is going to be a winner. Silvertabby's friend must be so happy at the moment if it is only source of income! 😁

No, the budget document says "with no increments" so any of those things you list get you excluded from the income tax exemption.

But what people are picking up on is what Rachel Reeves said to Martin Lewis - ie, that 'those on just the State pension won't pay tax'.

WE know what she said isn't what she meant - but she'll still have to do some backtracking to knock this rumour on the head !

If you listen carefully Rachel Reeves didn’t actually say that. Those were Martin Lewis’ words. 

Agree - but this has Chinese Whispered into 'those on just the State pension won't pay tax' - and this Whisper has long legs.  

BikingBud

Unfortunately it is all part of the pantomime.

SnowMan

Triple lock increase for April 2027 possibly in the region of 3.7%-4.1%

The earnings percentage increase used for the earnings element of the triple lock calculation (in April 2027) has been established through custom to be the July 2026 seasonally adjusted total pay including bonuses percentage (average annual increase for months of May, June and July 2026) which will be published on 15th September (although it may still be subject to a minor revision in October before the budget)

The corresponding June 2026 figure has been published today (18th August) of 4.1%. This 4.1% figure is based on the average of the single month earnings increase figures of 4.7% for April, 3.7% for May and 4.1% for June. If say the single month figure was 4% for July then that would mean the July 2026 3 month average used for the triple lock would be 3.9% (average of 3.7%, 4.1% and 4%). So perhaps the earnings increase for triple lock purposes might be in the range 3.7% - 4.1%.

Latest CPI figure for June 2026 was 2.6%. July's figure is out tomorrow [edit now announced at 2.9%]. And it is September's figure (published on 21st October) that is traditionally used for the prices element of the triple lock. Of course it is possible CPI may increase into September.

The triple lock increase is based on the higher of the earnings increase, price inflation and 2.5%. The triple lock is a manifesto commitment rather than a legislated increase and it is usually announced in the budget (28th October 2026).

But as a best guess perhaps the triple lock increase for April 2027 will be based on the earnings calculation and be in the region of 3.7%-4.1%. Does that seem right?

Cobbler_tone

Too much I'd imagine.

SnowMan

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82106325#Comment_82106325

Now an article on the actuarial post website covering the same ground as my post. They've just used the 4.1% June three month figure for their estimate, which doesn't take into account that the 4.7% April single month component will fall out of the calculation for July and hence the July three month figure is more likely than not to be less than the June three month figure

https://www.actuarialpost.co.uk/article/wage-data-likely-to-be-key-factor-in-triple-lock-uplift-27071.htm

NoMore

Why speculate by October we will know for certain because the sept cpi data and the wages growth will both have been published.

It’s only 8 weeks or so.