"Average Earnings Growth" and triple lock

philip4567

The triple lock is based on the "Average Earnings Growth" figure for July 2025 (released in August 2025) and the CPI for September 2025.

Does anyone know what the "Average Earnings Growth" figure is for this July?

I'm finding it very difficult to track down and find out if it's the figure including bonses or not.

MyRealNameToo

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/july2025 

Cobbler_tone

philip4567 said:

Does anyone know what the "Average Earnings Growth" figure is for this July?

AI said this, are you any nearer?

As of the July 2025 release from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the Average Earnings Growth in the UK for the period March to May 2025 was:

• 5.0% for both regular earnings (excluding bonuses) and total earnings (including bonuses) 
  1
  .
• In real terms, adjusted for inflation:
  • Regular pay grew by 1.1% using CPIH (Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs).
  • Total pay grew by 1.0% using CPIH.
  • Using CPI (excluding housing costs), real growth was 1.8% for regular pay and 1.7% for total pay 
    1
    .

The public sector saw a slightly higher regular earnings growth of 5.5%, while the private sector recorded 4.9% 

NoMore

MyRealNameToo said:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/july2025 

That’s the march to may figure. The triple lock uses the may to July figure which hasn’t been published yet and won’t be until sept   OCT(edit See Snowmans post below) I believe. 

SnowMan

The triple lock means the state pension should increase by the higher of inflation, earnings and 2.5%

Inflation: The September CPI is used and this is published on 22nd October 2025.

Earnings: As I understand it the earnings percentage should be the July 2025 figure which is the annual increase in the 3 months average of total pay (i.e including bonuses) for May, June and July. This comes out on 16th September. The June 2025 figure of 4.6% (which was the average of April, May and June) became available on 12th August and is shown here

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/timeseries/kac3/lms/

The figure used for this years increase (the earnings element was highest) was the July 2024 figure (which was the May, June and July 2024 average) of 4.1%. That figure has subsequently been revised in recent months to 4.4% but the revisions happened only after the state pension increase of 4.1% was confirmed in the budget and so the triple lock increase was only 4.1%.   

Edit: post amended to confirm it is the 16th September earnings figure for July 2025 that should be used

SnowMan

Interestingly it now appears that the new state pension did not (arguably) increase by the triple lock this year.

This appears to be because the ONS have quietly revised up the July 2024 3 month average earnings figure from 4.1% to 4.4% in recent months. They had previously revised it up from 4% to 4.1% but this happened before the budget announcement and was incorporated. Hence the increase was actually 0.3% (=4.4% minus 4.1%) less than earnings. Is that correct?

SnowMan

NoMore said:

MyRealNameToo said:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/july2025 

That’s the march to may figure. The triple lock uses the may to July figure which hasn’t been published yet and won’t be until sept   OCT(edit See Snowmans post below) I believe. 

No you were right and I was wrong, it will be available in September (and not October as I said). I've edited my post to correct this. 

I got confused because the August 2024 figure is 4.1% which coincidentally was the increase to the new state pension. And so I thought that was the increase used for this year's increase, but it is actually the July 2024 figure that was used before it was revised from 4.1% up to 4.4% as it now shows.

GunJack

Must admit I think it's about time the triple lock was done away with and SP just rises at CPI. If it helps save more messing with ages then why not? I never really understood the argument in linking to earnings anyway....

BlackKnightMonty

GunJack said:

Must admit I think it's about time the triple lock was done away with and SP just rises at CPI. If it helps save more messing with ages then why not? I never really understood the argument in linking to earnings anyway....

Absolutely. It’s completely unsustainable !

Stubod

..as long as it is CPI H..!!!!

BlackKnightMonty

Stubod said:

..as long as it is CPI H..!!!!

The nation can’t afford to give you that.