Where are we at with energy tariff's these days?

MP1995

t1redmonkey said:

I've just taken out a 1 year fix with Octopus.  I think it's worth it, as it's only £2/month higher than the Flexible Octopus tariff (based on my usage) and there are zero exit fees so I can change my mind at any time.  To me that's worth paying a tiny bit more in the short term when variable tariffs are projected to go up again in October.  Of course if by some miracle prices come down drastically then I can just exit the fix without any penalty and go on to a better deal.

Do you have a working smart meter?

Newbie_John

NedS said:

Newbie_John said:

TheElectricCow said:

As mentioned by others above, if you’re looking for sheer cost savings and are comfortable taking on the extra risk, you could do much worse than Octopus Agile or Tracker. Agile so far has proven to be the cheapest tariff going for my usage, even on the most expensive days it’s worked out roughly on par with a SVT, and on the best days it’s well over 100% cheaper. 

Having some flexibility with your energy use will go a long way on these tariffs, but isn’t absolutely necessary in many cases - ensuring you have a decent understanding of your usage patterns is well advised though.

A fix is most worthwhile if you value longer term stability and protection from a potentially volatile global market over the cheapest prices, which will be a different decision for everyone based on their individual priorities.

I don't really think there is much risk with Agile - you can leave it anytime.. and fix as you wish.
Fixing in my opinion doesn't make sense these days, as we're really talking few % savings if.. prices change as expected. With Agile, my friend who never checks prices and do what he wants whenever he wants - saved about 20% comapred to SVR, in my case it's more than 50% saved. 

If the argument for fixing is to protect against geopolitical shocks and give certainty, one needs to do that before the unimaginable happens. Being able to leave Agile at any time, after that shock has occurred, and fixing at post-crisis prices doesn't really help.

A better comparison would be SVR vs Agile, for which Agile has been significantly cheaper for most users. Fixed would almost certainly be more expensive for most right now, but you are paying for the guarantee of the fix over the lifetime of the product.

Sure, that's a valid argument - fix would be great if December 2022 happened again.
The conversation is about "fixes" based on what we know now, or what we expect to happen in near future, and this sadly doesn't offer much difference between a fix and expected SVR for the next year, literally +/-5%.
TOU tariffs can provide significant savings vs SVRs and current fixes.

spot1034

It's probably also worth pointing out to those who haven't read all the threads on this topic in recent months that we were in an unusual situation last winter where wholesale prices were on a downward path, and as the price cap is set using historic prices (from a few months before) tariffs like Agile and Tracker which are based on present, not historic, wholesale prices were very attractive in comparison. This situation has now unwound. There is still scope to save money with Agile but it will involve more effort to move usage out of the more expensive hours, and there is still the possibility that if we get a cold, calm spell in winter with little wind generation, Agile prices will rise to eye-wateringly high levels, perhaps with little respite at any hour of the day or night, and perhaps lasting for a significant period. It just didn't happen last winter, but that doesn't mean it won't next time. 

bristolleedsfan

Newbie_John said:

NedS said:

Newbie_John said:

TheElectricCow said:

As mentioned by others above, if you’re looking for sheer cost savings and are comfortable taking on the extra risk, you could do much worse than Octopus Agile or Tracker. Agile so far has proven to be the cheapest tariff going for my usage, even on the most expensive days it’s worked out roughly on par with a SVT, and on the best days it’s well over 100% cheaper. 

Having some flexibility with your energy use will go a long way on these tariffs, but isn’t absolutely necessary in many cases - ensuring you have a decent understanding of your usage patterns is well advised though.

A fix is most worthwhile if you value longer term stability and protection from a potentially volatile global market over the cheapest prices, which will be a different decision for everyone based on their individual priorities.

I don't really think there is much risk with Agile - you can leave it anytime.. and fix as you wish.
Fixing in my opinion doesn't make sense these days, as we're really talking few % savings if.. prices change as expected. With Agile, my friend who never checks prices and do what he wants whenever he wants - saved about 20% comapred to SVR, in my case it's more than 50% saved. 

If the argument for fixing is to protect against geopolitical shocks and give certainty, one needs to do that before the unimaginable happens. Being able to leave Agile at any time, after that shock has occurred, and fixing at post-crisis prices doesn't really help.

A better comparison would be SVR vs Agile, for which Agile has been significantly cheaper for most users. Fixed would almost certainly be more expensive for most right now, but you are paying for the guarantee of the fix over the lifetime of the product.

Sure, that's a valid argument - fix would be great if December 2022 happened again.
The conversation is about "fixes" based on what we know now, or what we expect to happen in near future, and this sadly doesn't offer much difference between a fix and expected SVR for the next year, literally +/-5%.
TOU tariffs can provide significant savings vs SVRs and current fixes.

What we know now is EDF have a 12 month fix at same unit rates as current energy cap.

What % is energy cap predicted to increase on 1 October ?????

In past months people have fixed for less than current energy cap

TOU tariffs are not certain to provide significant savings vs SVRs and current fixes during winter months going forward, 

[Deleted User]

bristolleedsfan said:

Newbie_John said:

NedS said:

Newbie_John said:

TheElectricCow said:

As mentioned by others above, if you’re looking for sheer cost savings and are comfortable taking on the extra risk, you could do much worse than Octopus Agile or Tracker. Agile so far has proven to be the cheapest tariff going for my usage, even on the most expensive days it’s worked out roughly on par with a SVT, and on the best days it’s well over 100% cheaper. 

Having some flexibility with your energy use will go a long way on these tariffs, but isn’t absolutely necessary in many cases - ensuring you have a decent understanding of your usage patterns is well advised though.

A fix is most worthwhile if you value longer term stability and protection from a potentially volatile global market over the cheapest prices, which will be a different decision for everyone based on their individual priorities.

I don't really think there is much risk with Agile - you can leave it anytime.. and fix as you wish.
Fixing in my opinion doesn't make sense these days, as we're really talking few % savings if.. prices change as expected. With Agile, my friend who never checks prices and do what he wants whenever he wants - saved about 20% comapred to SVR, in my case it's more than 50% saved. 

If the argument for fixing is to protect against geopolitical shocks and give certainty, one needs to do that before the unimaginable happens. Being able to leave Agile at any time, after that shock has occurred, and fixing at post-crisis prices doesn't really help.

A better comparison would be SVR vs Agile, for which Agile has been significantly cheaper for most users. Fixed would almost certainly be more expensive for most right now, but you are paying for the guarantee of the fix over the lifetime of the product.

Sure, that's a valid argument - fix would be great if December 2022 happened again.
The conversation is about "fixes" based on what we know now, or what we expect to happen in near future, and this sadly doesn't offer much difference between a fix and expected SVR for the next year, literally +/-5%.
TOU tariffs can provide significant savings vs SVRs and current fixes.

What we know now is EDF have a 12 month fix at same unit rates as current energy cap.

What % is energy cap predicted to increase on 1 October ?????

In past months people have fixed for less than current energy cap

TOU tariffs are not certain to provide significant savings vs SVRs and current fixes during winter months going forward, 

I agree with the sense of what you're saying, but would point out that there are TOU tariffs (like Economy 7 and some of the more specialist ones like Octopus Flux) for which there are fixed and/or SVR (or SVR -like) contracts available. That is, not all the TOU tariffs are as volatile as the market trackers and some of them have a similar risk profile to their single rate alternatives. But just to reiterate I do agree with the main thrust of the points that you make.

Newbie_John

bristolleedsfan said:

Newbie_John said:

NedS said:

Newbie_John said:

TheElectricCow said:

As mentioned by others above, if you’re looking for sheer cost savings and are comfortable taking on the extra risk, you could do much worse than Octopus Agile or Tracker. Agile so far has proven to be the cheapest tariff going for my usage, even on the most expensive days it’s worked out roughly on par with a SVT, and on the best days it’s well over 100% cheaper. 

Having some flexibility with your energy use will go a long way on these tariffs, but isn’t absolutely necessary in many cases - ensuring you have a decent understanding of your usage patterns is well advised though.

A fix is most worthwhile if you value longer term stability and protection from a potentially volatile global market over the cheapest prices, which will be a different decision for everyone based on their individual priorities.

I don't really think there is much risk with Agile - you can leave it anytime.. and fix as you wish.
Fixing in my opinion doesn't make sense these days, as we're really talking few % savings if.. prices change as expected. With Agile, my friend who never checks prices and do what he wants whenever he wants - saved about 20% comapred to SVR, in my case it's more than 50% saved. 

If the argument for fixing is to protect against geopolitical shocks and give certainty, one needs to do that before the unimaginable happens. Being able to leave Agile at any time, after that shock has occurred, and fixing at post-crisis prices doesn't really help.

A better comparison would be SVR vs Agile, for which Agile has been significantly cheaper for most users. Fixed would almost certainly be more expensive for most right now, but you are paying for the guarantee of the fix over the lifetime of the product.

Sure, that's a valid argument - fix would be great if December 2022 happened again.
The conversation is about "fixes" based on what we know now, or what we expect to happen in near future, and this sadly doesn't offer much difference between a fix and expected SVR for the next year, literally +/-5%.
TOU tariffs can provide significant savings vs SVRs and current fixes.

What we know now is EDF have a 12 month fix at same unit rates as current energy cap.

What % is energy cap predicted to increase on 1 October ?????

In past months people have fixed for less than current energy cap

TOU tariffs are not certain to provide significant savings vs SVRs and current fixes during winter months going forward, 

It looks like about 10% rise for 1/10-31/12 and this should remain the same from 1/1-31/3.
Looking at last year worst day on Agile:
https://agileprices.co.uk/?tariff=AGILE-FLEX-22-11-25&fromdate=20231129
the price was at peak 200% of SVR and 50% at night, and I would really expect it to remain withing the same range. And there are best days like:
https://agileprices.co.uk/?tariff=AGILE-FLEX-22-11-25&fromdate=20231224
When it was free for the whole day.
Also it's capped to 100p/kWh so 400% the SVR rate, and you can run away to SVR anytime.. 
What's unknown is the ratio of bad to good days in winter 2024/25.

But yeah, if we are talking about guaranteed savings - then no, you cannot be guaranteed to save, Agile is a tool like fishing rod - one will get the fish and one will hort themselves :-D

NedS

This page (pick the appropriate region for you at the top of the page) has a nice graph about half way down showing the average price for each 30min slot for the last 365 days:

https://energy-stats.uk/octopus-agile-eastern-england/

Other than the peak period of 4-7pm, the average price for every single 30min time slot has been less than the SVR for the last 12 months. Even a small battery could avoid drawing from the grid during 4-7pm completely.

Generally, Agile pricing looks more volatile in Winter with higher peaks and more negative periods, due to higher demand and more volatile production due to stormy (windy) weather (or at least that's my interpretation of the data). Summer pricing looks more stable with cheaper overnight and daytime periods corresponding to lower overnight demand and summertime solar generation, with early morning and evening peaks in demand.

Agile works great for folks like us who are home all day and can take advantage of the cheaper periods.

mac.d

bristolleedsfan said:

What we know now is EDF have a 12 month fix at same unit rates as current energy cap.

What % is energy cap predicted to increase on 1 October ?????

In past months people have fixed for less than current energy cap

TOU tariffs are not certain to provide significant savings vs SVRs and current fixes during winter months going forward, 

Being on the (now less attractive compared to last year) tracker tariff and not really able to shift enough to take advantage of agile, I'm very much thinking this bit in bold and if it'd possibly be worth just moving off tracker to the octopus fix that's on offer. 

There's no longer much of a saving to be made on electric, its the gas that's still a bit cheaper, but if prices go up by the forecasted 10% in October, it makes the current fixed tariff seem more attractive for the winter at least. I'm loathe to switch away from the tracker tariff though!

bristolleedsfan

Octopus have launched Octopus 12M Fixed July 2024 v1 cheaper for both fuels than previous version.

Gas broadly same as current energy cap,

Thanks to competition, just shows most fixed rates could be cheaper than they have been.   

spot1034

Whilst there are major suppliers with fixes at the same price as the current cap, E. On Next were not offering such a fix and yesterday they pulled the old one which was slightly more expensive than the cap, and replaced it with one that was even higher. Given that and the upward trend in wholesale prices, I should say that the 'match the present price cap' fixes won't be around for much longer.