Where are we at with energy tariff's these days?

B0bbyEwing

For long enough it was a case of stick with the variable tariff as nobody was offering any fixes or any worthwhile fixes. I know I was with Shell & they weren't offering fixes (since taken over by Octopus I know).

I'm planning on having a smart meter installed towards the end of next month if I can just get the timing right. Just wondered if it's the general advice to stick with variable or shift to fixed. 

I've just ran a quote & a fixed quote for me is marginally dearer each month. The unit prices are ever so slightly higher on each with standing charges the same. I've no idea what the projected outlook is supposed to be for energy so yeah just wondered what others were doing really.

Netexporter

If you are getting a smart meter, and your motivation is saving money, then TOU tariffs are worth considering. I'd start with looking at Tracker and Agile.

matelodave

AFAIK the projected outlook is for prices to rise a bit in the autumn (October) with another 3-4% in January 2025 but of course this is only a guess, but Cornwall Insight have been pretty close. However there are always outside factors that can skew it either way.

As we use the vast majority of our energy between October and March (70% of our annual consumption) I've decided that I can take a bit of a gamble and pay a bit more for a fixed deal whilst our consumption is at its lowest, in the hope that we'll break even or even benefit if the costs go up when the colder weather arrives. But who really knows.

Do your sums based on your own energy consumption rather than what the energy company guesses or even looking at the "typical" household as I've noticed that over the past few years the "typical" household electricity consumption has been slowly whittled away from an average of about 3500kwh a year down to 2700kwh a year, similar with gas which is down to 11,500kwh from a previous 12,500kwh. So do your own calculations.

Dont get too hung up on the standing charge unless you are a very low user- a 10p a day increase will cost you just £36.50 a year whereas a ha'penny per kwh on gas is £60 or more depending on your consumption.

Cornwall Insight’s Default Tariff cap forecasts using new Typical Domestic Consumption Values: Standing charge and unit rate (dual fuel, direct debit customer)

Electricity	Q424 Forecast
Standing Charge (£/day)	0.61
Per Unit Costs (p/kWh)	24.96
Gas	Q424 Forecast
Standing Charge (£/day)	0.33
Per Unit Costs (p/kWh)	6.15

Newbie_John

Netexporter said:

If you are getting a smart meter, and your motivation is saving money, then TOU tariffs are worth considering. I'd start with looking at Tracker and Agile.

Exactly this, I've switched to Agile in November last year and since then savings were in hundreds of pounds. For example February this year 637kW used, paid £80 and this would cost me £200 on standard rate. Sure fixes are OK, but offer just few % of savings sadly. Anyway in the last 8 months I only had one day when standard rate would have been cheaper - by 3 pence 😅

mmmmikey

Something that often seems to get overlooked (IMHO) in these SVR or fix discussions is that you're not really comparing like with like. If you fix you are protected from unexpected price shocks, which you don't get on SVR and strikes me as being particularly valuable given the currently unstable geopolitical situation.

If it's difficult to make the call between SVR and fixed on the basis of prices, or if the benefit of SVR is marginal at best then surely logic drives you to fix and enjoy the benefit of what effectively becomes free insurance against any potential Trump, Russia, China, Middle East, far right European, Latin American, etc. threat to global stability and the effect on the energy market?

If you are on a TOU tariff such as Agile I can see that the cost savings are worth taking the risk for. But why take the risk for a marginal benefit?

TheElectricCow

As mentioned by others above, if you’re looking for sheer cost savings and are comfortable taking on the extra risk, you could do much worse than Octopus Agile or Tracker. Agile so far has proven to be the cheapest tariff going for my usage, even on the most expensive days it’s worked out roughly on par with a SVT, and on the best days it’s well over 100% cheaper. 

Having some flexibility with your energy use will go a long way on these tariffs, but isn’t absolutely necessary in many cases - ensuring you have a decent understanding of your usage patterns is well advised though.

A fix is most worthwhile if you value longer term stability and protection from a potentially volatile global market over the cheapest prices, which will be a different decision for everyone based on their individual priorities.

Bungle73

I went for a fix last year (with So Energy). In hindsight it was probably a mistake as prices didn't escalate in the way I suspected they might. I'm coming to the end of my fix and considered going onto a variable tariff, but in the end decided to go with another fix (this time with Outfox the Market) as it's a good deal and prices are forecast to rise in October, and the world situation still seems very volatile, probably more so than last year.

Bungle73

What's slightly annoying is that "Should you fix" calculator on this website STILL has not been updated THREE WEEKS after the last cap rate change and OVER A MONTH since we all knew what it was going to be!

Newbie_John

TheElectricCow said:

As mentioned by others above, if you’re looking for sheer cost savings and are comfortable taking on the extra risk, you could do much worse than Octopus Agile or Tracker. Agile so far has proven to be the cheapest tariff going for my usage, even on the most expensive days it’s worked out roughly on par with a SVT, and on the best days it’s well over 100% cheaper. 

Having some flexibility with your energy use will go a long way on these tariffs, but isn’t absolutely necessary in many cases - ensuring you have a decent understanding of your usage patterns is well advised though.

A fix is most worthwhile if you value longer term stability and protection from a potentially volatile global market over the cheapest prices, which will be a different decision for everyone based on their individual priorities.

I don't really think there is much risk with Agile - you can leave it anytime.. and fix as you wish.
Fixing in my opinion doesn't make sense these days, as we're really talking few % savings if.. prices change as expected. With Agile, my friend who never checks prices and do what he wants whenever he wants - saved about 20% comapred to SVR, in my case it's more than 50% saved. 

t1redmonkey

I've just taken out a 1 year fix with Octopus.  I think it's worth it, as it's only £2/month higher than the Flexible Octopus tariff (based on my usage) and there are zero exit fees so I can change my mind at any time.  To me that's worth paying a tiny bit more in the short term when variable tariffs are projected to go up again in October.  Of course if by some miracle prices come down drastically then I can just exit the fix without any penalty and go on to a better deal.

NedS

Newbie_John said:

TheElectricCow said:

As mentioned by others above, if you’re looking for sheer cost savings and are comfortable taking on the extra risk, you could do much worse than Octopus Agile or Tracker. Agile so far has proven to be the cheapest tariff going for my usage, even on the most expensive days it’s worked out roughly on par with a SVT, and on the best days it’s well over 100% cheaper. 

Having some flexibility with your energy use will go a long way on these tariffs, but isn’t absolutely necessary in many cases - ensuring you have a decent understanding of your usage patterns is well advised though.

A fix is most worthwhile if you value longer term stability and protection from a potentially volatile global market over the cheapest prices, which will be a different decision for everyone based on their individual priorities.

I don't really think there is much risk with Agile - you can leave it anytime.. and fix as you wish.
Fixing in my opinion doesn't make sense these days, as we're really talking few % savings if.. prices change as expected. With Agile, my friend who never checks prices and do what he wants whenever he wants - saved about 20% comapred to SVR, in my case it's more than 50% saved. 

If the argument for fixing is to protect against geopolitical shocks and give certainty, one needs to do that before the unimaginable happens. Being able to leave Agile at any time, after that shock has occurred, and fixing at post-crisis prices doesn't really help.

A better comparison would be SVR vs Agile, for which Agile has been significantly cheaper for most users. Fixed would almost certainly be more expensive for most right now, but you are paying for the guarantee of the fix over the lifetime of the product.