Inflation up or down

zagfles

Ed-1 said:

zagfles said:

The govt energy subsidy wasn't included, meaning inflation now looks lower than it would have been? 

Same for mortgage interest costs. Interest AFAIK has never been included in inflation measures.

The Energy Bills Support Scheme £400 off bills wasn't included but the biggest subsidy (the Energy Price Guarantee) was included.

Mortgage interest rates are included in RPI but not CPI.

So it makes the implication of politically massaging the figures even more laughable. More info here: 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/methodologies/consumerpriceinflationincludesall3indicescpihcpiandrpiqmi

zagfles

Nebulous2 said:

georged123 said:

Swipe said:

£12 a pack? I see Malboro Golds are £15 in the Tesco website 

£12 is your minimum nowadays for the cheaper fags. Marlboros, Silk Cut Purple etc are easily over £15 in a lot of places...

I work in retail and a lot of people just dont seem bothered about the price of things. There's no real change to routines or budgets for a lot of people. 

Another poster made the point about cheap money and I think thats a salient point. The government is happy to keep paying out a lot of money to keep the economy just about ticking along but something's going to give sooner rather than later.

I've been conducting my own anecdotal survey of retail spending, and I've been amazed at how long expenditure has persisted in the face of higher interest rates. We went for a meal a week ago - quite early, before 6, as we had been busy and were hungry. "I'm sorry, there isn't a table in the restaurant until 9, but you can eat in the bar area if you can find a table there." Restaurant prices around here, in a fishing area, have risen substantially since the pandemic. Pre-pandemic fish and chips was almost always under £10. Now its around £16 - in a fairly modest eatery - even at lunchtime. Yet they are still very busy, with their biggest issue being staffing. 

I've got my own campaign going against the caravan and motorhome club. We've caravanned a great deal for around 40 years, but I'm now reluctant to pay their prices. Site pricing has doubled since pre-pandemic. A smidge under £20 a night then and a sliver under £40 a night now. The forums are full of people complaining, bookings do seem to have been affected, but the club still isn't listening. 

There are indicators that the boom is running out of steam however. Credit card debt is rising. Retail sales were unexpectedly down in December. Hospitality venues are closing - which seems out of step with my observations of restaurants that are perpetually full - but there you are. Housebuilders are going bust. 

As more and more people come to the end of fixed mortgage deals the increases will have an impact on discretionary spending. 

It appears the medicine will work, just much more slowly than I expected. 

Sentiment is everything in a consumer-driven economy, and there is still a possibility that it tips quickly and aggressively, rather than the expected 'soft landing.'

COVID has had a big impact particularly on the stuff you mention. I know it caused a massive rise in the cost of motorhomes, and so presumably in the cost of related stuff like site fees etc. I guess people thought it might be the "new normal" and holidaying in your own private space was the way forwards.

Hospitality venues being full yet closing - that'll be down to staff shortages you mention and of course will lead to price rises. Which again is likely to be a side effect of the massive rise in "economic inactivity" since COVID, often blamed on older people retiring early but more significant is the big rise in the "long term sick" (which interestingly seems unique to the UK, most other countries have recovered but we haven't).

pecunianonolet

Same observation here, been out yesterday for a birthday party in one of the bigger cities up north. Pubs are as full as ever, and people don't seem to be pacing how much they drink and prices of £6 or £7 for a pint don't seem to stop them. A portion of Nachos with hardly anything on was £10

Later in the food place we've been we paid for 2 people £55 for a meal and a drink. The food was maybe 4/10. The cocktail the OH had doesn't deserve the price tag and surely not the word cocktail. The toilets were disgusting, it rained and they started to just place buckets everywhere. With taxi and train into the city we spent £100.  

I'd rather stay home nowadays before I spend so much money for so little in return but everywhere we went it was full and no sign of people struggling. If some of the bad places would go bust, it wouldn't be a problem imho but doesn't seem like people know how to prioritise their spending.

zagfles

pecunianonolet said:

Same observation here, been out yesterday for a birthday party in one of the bigger cities up north. Pubs are as full as ever, and people don't seem to be pacing how much they drink and prices of £6 or £7 for a pint don't seem to stop them. A portion of Nachos with hardly anything on was £10

Later in the food place we've been we paid for 2 people £55 for a meal and a drink. The food was maybe 4/10. The cocktail the OH had doesn't deserve the price tag and surely not the word cocktail. The toilets were disgusting, it rained and they started to just place buckets everywhere. With taxi and train into the city we spent £100.  

I'd rather stay home nowadays before I spend so much money for so little in return but everywhere we went it was full and no sign of people struggling. If some of the bad places would go bust, it wouldn't be a problem imho but doesn't seem like people know how to prioritise their spending.

Two Christmas parties I went to last month. First was in a trendy city centre pub. Meal was £33 each, drinks were over £6 a pint. I'd rate food at 4/10 and beer at 6/10. We had to vacate the dining area after finishing so the next lot could eat, the main part of the pub was packed with nowhere to sit.

Second was in an ex-Wetherspoons place. Big pub, loads of space. Tables where we could stay after eating. Meals were £10 for 2, so £5 each. Food was definitely better, 7/10, although just one course it was almost as filling as the 3 courses in the other pub. Beer was under £3 a pint, and better, maybe 8/10.

LHW99

It appears the medicine will work, just much more slowly than I expected.

I suspect one factor may be the fixed rate mortgage. People still on a low % have spare money, until the fix comes to an end and they find just how much their payments will rise.

Its probably why the BoE rate rises haven't had as much effect as some media pundits predicted.

pecunianonolet

"Ministers’ 99% mortgage idea could overheat UK housing market, say experts"

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/21/99-per-cent-mortgage-scheme-uk-housing-market-ministers

Are they completely out of their mind? The last 5% campaign was already a big failure. Instead they should restrict to minimum 20% deposit and even more important scrap anything under 10 year running mortgages. Those short lived deals are not sustainable in any way. Property prices are still far too inflated.

If the clowns in No 10 and 11 introduce such a scheme inflation will go up again 

Londonlisa12

The Guardian 😂😂😂

pecunianonolet

Londonlisa12 said:

The Guardian 😂😂😂

One of the few last serious media outlets left together with FT, although, reading news about your own country from the perspective of the media in other countries, ideally in the original language is even better. Especially, concerning inflation, brexit, trade, foreign policies, and much more.

I can, can you?

Maybe the below floats your boat more

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/mortgage-guarantee-1-deposits-being-31930588

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/sunak-hunt-budget-mortgages-deposits-b2481536.html

Anyhow, your comment is no surprise for someone who campaigned in 2019 to abolish the TV license. Anyhow, sit back, keep calm, relax and have a pancetta macaroni cheese, hopefully not out of the freezer. Would recommend glass of wine, good deals at Aldi always available.

I am more a Lidl shopper, can therefore report a 129.41% price increase on sparkling water. From 17p pre pandemic to 39p a bottle just now. 

zagfles

pecunianonolet said:

Londonlisa12 said:

The Guardian 😂😂😂

One of the few last serious media outlets left together with FT, although, reading news about your own country from the perspective of the media in other countries, ideally in the original language is even better. Especially, concerning inflation, brexit, trade, foreign policies, and much more.

I can, can you?

Maybe the below floats your boat more

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/mortgage-guarantee-1-deposits-being-31930588

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/sunak-hunt-budget-mortgages-deposits-b2481536.html

Anyhow, your comment is no surprise for someone who campaigned in 2019 to abolish the TV license. Anyhow, sit back, keep calm, relax and have a pancetta macaroni cheese, hopefully not out of the freezer. Would recommend glass of wine, good deals at Aldi always available.

I am more a Lidl shopper, can therefore report a 129.41% price increase on sparkling water. From 17p pre pandemic to 39p a bottle just now. 

Is it really necessary to dredge up previous posts about stuff like macaroni cheese in a thread about inflation in order to sneer at someone?

That aside, despite the obvious bias of papers like the Guardian, Mirror and Independant, the article is spot on, the 99% mortgage idea is totally brain dead, it will obviously cause house price inflation and make the problem they're trying to fix worse. But it's been the same with virtually all housing policy by goverments of all colours. Let's not forget that by far the biggest sustained real terms rise in house prices occurred under the last Labour govt, between 1997 and 2007 https://www.allagents.co.uk/house-prices-adjusted/ and it was them who started the govt schemes to subsidise house buying with stuff like "key workers" schemes. 

So the prospect of sane housing policy whoever wins the next election is remote I fear!