Inflation up or down

simonsmithsays

Ask 20 economists and get 20 answers 

pecunianonolet

simonsmithsays said:

Ask 20 economists and get 20 answers 

Wow, such a value add to the conversation.

masonic

simonsmithsays said:

Ask 20 economists and get 20 answers 

That's how the measurement of complex systems works. Those 20 answers will all lie somewhere on a probability distribution, which evolves over time as things change. That doesn't make them useless, but they are at risk of overinterpretation in the wrong hands.

sevenhills

MiserlyMartin said:

The figures are fiddled anyway. Food inflation is 30%

Which inflation rate is untrue, CPI or RPI? 

Londonlisa12

BoE have been determined to kill sterling since Carney took over , who was only there to help his ex colleagues at Goldman Sachs annd the rest of the parasitic banking scum earn billions off it , Bailey has just carried it on.
They were far to  late in increasing rates and without doubt they will bring them down far too early.
About time people realized what they are about.

dealyboy

@MiserlyMartin said:

The figures are fiddled anyway. Food inflation is 30%

I said that in a post as well, but it was actually 30% over two years in October 2023. I believe the latest food CPIH is 9.2% in the year to November 2023 (ONS).

dealyboy

dealyboy said:

Up ... just to confound Sunak, but then again I'm a contrarian  .

New inflation figures today (17th Jan 2024) CPI up from 3.9% to 4.0% (year to Dec 2023).

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices

edit: just to add the table for individual CPI categories ...

Table 3: CPI annual and monthly inflation rates by division, UK
December 2022, November 2023, and December 2023

	CPI 12-month rate (%)		CPI 1-month rate (%)
	Nov 2023	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2023
CPI All items	3.9	4.0	0.4	0.4
Food and non- alcoholic beverages	9.2	8.0	1.6	0.5
Alcohol and tobacco	10.2	12.9	-1.1	1.3
Clothing and footwear	5.7	6.4	-0.3	0.4
Housing and household services	-3.4	-3.4	0.1	0.2
Furniture and household goods	2.3	2.5	1.2	1.4
Health	7.4	7.3	0.6	0.5
Transport	-1.5	-1.1	0.3	0.7
Communication	8.1	8.5	-1.0	-0.6
Recreation and culture	5.3	5.7	-0.2	0.2
Education	4.5	4.5	0.0	0.0
Restaurants and hotels	7.5	7.0	0.9	0.5
Miscellaneous goods and services	4.8	4.3	0.3	-0.3
All goods	2.0	1.9	0.1	0.0
All services	6.3	6.4	0.8	0.9
CPI exc food, energy, alcohol and tobacco (core CPI)	5.1	5.1	0.5	0.6

Source: Consumer price inflation from the Office for National Statistics

boingy

I'm thinking that means no change to interest rates then.

Londonlisa12

The vote was 6 to 3 to hold the rate last time, so now that CPI is rising again it only takes 2 of the 6 to see common sense and we will have another rise.But they won’t because Bailey just like Carney is in the pockets of the banks and determined to kill sterling and use inflation to get rid of debt,whilst making everyone with anything poorer in real terms.

Frequentlyhere

I'm just amazed anyone is still buying cigarettes in the UK at £12 a pack. 

Bit of an archaic category might I suggest? How much spending is there on alcohol vs tobacco?

edit: to answer my own question, it's £10,004 million  (that's the way they put it, seems odd to me) for tobacco tax receipts and £13bn for alcohol.

So unless I have myself confused with zeros and billions, they're not actually that dissimilar.  I guess because tobacco duty is just so high.

Pretty astonishing really. £10bn just in tax for tobacco for one year in this day and age. Looking elsewhere to confirm, it's actually £12bn including VAT. Quite an eye opener for me.