Octopus Agile prices from 1st July

Chrysalis

@Mstty

EPG support ends on 1 July for Agile, so first any rates above EPG rate wont get discounted.

The new tariff has a 100P cap and a higher SC than the one you presented on here last year, although the current wholesale rates are still decent, it has started creeping up.

It is also no longer fixed terms for a year.

I dont expect the off peak rates to suddenly jump up in July providing they stay as they are now, but peak time rates might jump up as they currently subsidised.  I dont know what they peaking at right now, as I am still on the 35p tariff, so mine is flatlining at that level (with EPG discount so 33p), and the energy stats website is also flatlining at 35p.

Off peak currently only dropping to around 18p.

I will screenshot todays costs for you.

Scot_39

Thanks for the trend - don't suppose Octopus ever tell you what the actual unit prices would have been when capped somewhere - and currently discounted - as potentially in that 4-7 pm slot ?

Or guess could wait to people start posting similar come July 1st.

And that average line on graph is of course only the unit price time average.  People thinking of switching - need to also look at the distribution of units used. Your use weighted average price.

Assuming those 4-7 hour c 33p was the EPG cap limiting - higher come July.  And the risk is that when the cap comes off those time slots - not just that the time average increases a bit - but that the personal use weighted average increases more so - if your usage profile set that way.

But with an average there of say 23p - still seems a fairly large amount of room to absorb some increase upto the new 30p regional ave Ofgem SR level coming in in July.

But as the two sets of prices Agile vs Ofgem converge as prices settle - then it is clear - then usage profile matters more. 

Just as it does with conventional time of use likes of E7 and E10 multirate vs SR.

Whereas I suspect almost anyone could have won with agile in the last say 6 months.  Given it seems from posts here to only very infrequently over shot EPG+max discount - in the down market.

If those are typical -

many an E7 will now be in cheap rate in that morning peak (running to 8 or 830 DST in some regions)

and my E10 afternoon slot - as active 2-5pm in summer - in hr of main evening peak (my NSH aren't on obviously - but it feeds the whole house - so could do a washing or cook a meal - burning a couple of kWh).

But heh - wasn't my idea to have tariffs stuck on GMT timings - in the digital age.

scobie

Agile prices are excellent tomorrow. Down to just a few p a KwH at various times during the day with a low of under a penny at one point early pm. 

[Deleted User]

Scot_39 said:

Thanks for the trend - don't suppose Octopus ever tell you what the actual unit prices would have been when capped somewhere - and currently discounted - as potentially in that 4-7 pm slot ?

Or guess could wait to people start posting similar come July 1st.

And that average line on graph is of course only the unit price time average.  People thinking of switching - need to also look at the distribution of units used. Your use weighted average price.

Assuming those 4-7 hour c 33p was the EPG cap limiting - higher come July.  And the risk is that when the cap comes off those time slots - not just that the time average increases a bit - but that the personal use weighted average increases more so - if your usage profile set that way.

But with an average there of say 23p - still seems a fairly large amount of room to absorb some increase upto the new 30p regional ave Ofgem SR level coming in in July.

But as the two sets of prices Agile vs Ofgem converge as prices settle - then it is clear - then usage profile matters more. 

Just as it does with conventional time of use likes of E7 and E10 multirate vs SR.

Whereas I suspect almost anyone could have won with agile in the last say 6 months.  Given it seems from posts here to only very infrequently over shot EPG+max discount - in the down market.

If those are typical -

many an E7 will now be in cheap rate in that morning peak (running to 8 or 830 DST in some regions)

and my E10 afternoon slot - as active 2-5pm in summer - in hr of main evening peak (my NSH aren't on obviously - but it feeds the whole house - so could do a washing or cook a meal - burning a couple of kWh).

But heh - wasn't my idea to have tariffs stuck on GMT timings - in the digital age.

I am sorry but having read your post very carefully, I confess that I have no idea what point/s you are trying to make. 

The whole rationale for choosing a ToU tariff -  as far as the customer is concerned  - is that the lowest overall cost per day is achieved by load shifting. Agile may well suit a retired couple who can avoid the 4 to 7pm period for high energy use but would be wholly unsuitable for a family with young children.

crumpet_man

Why would it be unsuitable for a family with young children?  What is using so much energy from 4pm to 7pm?  We have just one child and the only difference I can think of is that sometimes we cook two separate meals at different times.

I am on Agile and for the last month my average unit cost is 20.22p/kWh.  I could have got it lower by not using any kitchen appliances from 4 to 7 but it wouldn't have made a huge difference to my bill.  

razord

Octopus Watch has been showing predictions for the last few days of the post July 1st pricing at peak times. It's been up to around 36p per kWh, so a small increase.

Here's their predictions for Monday in the South West (they get more accurate the closer to the time period, but hopefully this shows it's not a huge leap)

greyteam1959

scobie said:

Agile prices are excellent tomorrow. Down to just a few p a KwH at various times during the day with a low of under a penny at one point early pm. 

I haved instructed her indoors to get the washing machine dishwasher & tumble dryer on.
😁😁

[Deleted User]

crumpet_man said:

Why would it be unsuitable for a family with young children?  What is using so much energy from 4pm to 7pm?  We have just one child and the only difference I can think of is that sometimes we cook two separate meals at different times.

I am on Agile and for the last month my average unit cost is 20.22p/kWh.  I could have got it lower by not using any kitchen appliances from 4 to 7 but it wouldn't have made a huge difference to my bill.  

The biggest savings are achieved if the 4 to 7pm period can be avoided. Children coming home from school tend to want to be fed; play on games machines etc. The peak load quickly adds up.

Scot_39

[Deleted User] said:

I am sorry but having read your post very carefully, I confess that I have no idea what point/s you are trying to make. 

The whole rationale for choosing a ToU tariff -  as far as the customer is concerned  - is that the lowest overall cost per day is achieved by load shifting. Agile may well suit a retired couple who can avoid the 4 to 7pm period for high energy use but would be wholly unsuitable for a family with young children.

That the changes make it even more of a time of use tariff than it has been.  That more care has to be taken post July 1st to avoid peaks by self discipline and load sharing.

As born out by the forecasts of upto 36.5p in the above future "Octopus Watch" forecast post - which is 20% higher than the new lower c30p SVT rate.

Whearas today a 20% increase over SVT - say from 33 to 40p - would have been completely hidden by the EPG discount.

debitcardmayhem

Just a thought how about

Der Ring des Nibelungen

Wagner of course , who knows I just want to Put_In my take on future of prices.

OK i'll get my hat and coat and wish you goodnight