Octopus Agile prices from 1st July

Mstty

My question is are the prices likely to increase 1st July on Agile

We are considering tracker as our next move all electric household and we can shift energy use easily to avoid 4-7pm etc

Edited sorry I meant Agile silly me lol

pfpf

do you mean will the 1st July bring a new Tariff name with a different SC/cap? otherwise tracker is tracker isn't it?

SJMALBA

How would avoiding 4-7 pm make any difference with Tracker? Wouldn't that be more the realm of Agile (not that I know much (anything?) about Agile!)?

bristolleedsfan

Mstty said:

My question is are the prices likely to increase 1st July on tracker.

When tracker prices change daily what makes July 1st any different to any other day ????

https://www.weather25.com/europe/united-kingdom?page=date&date=1-7

Mstty

Sorry I meant Agile my bad and amended title and first post. Brain not working in this heat lol

mmmmikey

My brain is not working properly either - just made a pot of tea but left out a vital ingredient - the teabag. You're right, must be the heat

If I've understood it correctly then Agile prices will only change between 16:00 and 19:00 on 1st July because that's the only time they are expensive enough to attract the EPG discount at the moment. So the other prices should continue to vary with current trends.

I use Agile as and "Economy 21" tarriff and just make sure I don't use any energy between 16:00 and 19:00 and it's working very well for me so far. Slightly better than E7 for the nighttime hours and massively better than E7 for daytime if I exclude the peak. FWIW I'd just swap and see how it goes - very easy to swap to another tarriff if it doesn't work for you.

But always keeping in mind that this post was written by someone with tea making difficulties

Mstty

mmmmikey said:

My brain is not working properly either - just made a pot of tea but left out a vital ingredient - the teabag. You're right, must be the heat

If I've understood it correctly then Agile prices will only change between 16:00 and 19:00 on 1st July because that's the only time they are expensive enough to attract the EPG discount at the moment. So the other prices should continue to vary with current trends.

I use Agile as and "Economy 21" tarriff and just make sure I don't use any energy between 16:00 and 19:00 and it's working very well for me so far. Slightly better than E7 for the nighttime hours and massively better than E7 for daytime if I exclude the peak. FWIW I'd just swap and see how it goes - very easy to swap to another tarriff if it doesn't work for you.

But always keeping in mind that this post was written by someone with tea making difficulties

That was a very good response for someone with a teabagless cup of tea🤣🤣🤣

That was what I thought may happen. Still not an Octopus customer yet so was going to wait for a couple of weeks of Agile prices before switching.

I like that idea of an economy 21, that did make me laugh.

MWT

The only part of the current Agile tariff that will be directly affected on 1st July is the artificial cap that the Government support put in place which tended to cause the maximum rate to be around £0.34, with the support removed you may see more periods where the price goes above this level. 

Scot_39

As MWT the govt EPG discount created a kind of pricing deadband.

IF I read it correct

Below EPG price - you paid the price

Between the cap price and the max discount - you paid the cap price.

And above the EPG + max discount - you paid price up to £1 - max discount (or was it £1 after).

The help for those on expensive fixes was limitted to the cap or the maximum discount.  They never paid less than EPG - but if not let out of contract - many would have paid more.

I have often wondered whether this wasn't Agile customers having their cake and eating it - really cheap market rates cf SVT etc when available - but getting help with the expensive - whether in fact the EPG shoud have been applied as it was.

Perhaps say applied only if average rate went over EPG instead - not each half hour slot. If daily average truly less - they would still have paid less. So a bit like a cheap fix - no EPG help given.

If daily average between EPG and max discount - paid EPG etc.

MWT

Scot_39 said:

I have often wondered whether this wasn't Agile customers having their cake and eating it - really cheap market rates cf SVT etc when available - but getting help with the expensive - whether in fact the EPG shoud have been applied as it was.

They had an earlier version that was quickly dropped where it was applying the discount to all the rates, which was clearly a mistake.

The version they ended up with was reasonable I think and certainly appears ot have met the Government requirements for the support.

Either way, that dead-band is going to go away, but I do not expect it to cause problems for customers who are genuinely agile in their use.

Scot_39

The OP's main thoughts for query re July though - may in some ways yet be a few months early.

If the primary concern is the loss of the clear - now vs past average pricing advantage - as prices fell back quickly from last autumns wholesale highs of these "wholesale" linked tariffs.

Those declines have now slowed dramatically into Q4 supply (arguably Q3 wholesale market prices) estimates - Using Ofgem caps - as a guide (should ideally use their wholesale price only) (but remember they are 3m backward purchase windows iirc)

£4279 Q1 supply to £3280 Q2 supply = approx -£1000

£3280 to £2074 = approx -£1200

£2074 to c£1934 if take CI Jun13 Q4 prediction = -£140

£1934 to c£1945 it take CI Jun13 Q1 24 prediction = +£11

A drop is still a drop - another c£140 for Q4. So now vs lag should still work.

Sure that makes it a "keep a closer watch on" - but its definitely not invalidating the idea. And even the small forecast average Q1 rise - suggests nothing to panic about - to think about ditching.

But perhaps for those worried about the risk - or simply the need to regularly monitor - there does appear to be lower incentive to enter now.

Of course - it's hard to know exactly how Octopus derived their wholesale to retail pricing. But for the sake of argument - at worst in a flat market - might expect Agile to match almost exactly the Ofgem cap pricing - subject to daily or rather 1/2 hourly average consumer usage profiles.

So kind of really like the "economy 21" type analogy.

Avoid the non trivial daily peak 1/2 hour slot rates dragging the standard averages up - and then still save a bunch.

Which I suspect would work even if rates started to track up slowly - e.g. normal energy inflation not crisis level chaos.