Premium bonds unusual situation, for me!

zigmin1589

organum said:

We have the maximum holdings and each month we get something.
This month we got a single £25 which is most unusual.
I realise this is financial gambling but over the many years of holding the bonds the returns have been up and down but overall reasonable whilst not spectacular, hence my question.
Has anyone else had unexpectedly low returns this month?

I have the maximum holding and not had a win for 7 MONTHS. Not happy. I have withdrawn half my holding this morning and will do the same next month.

jaceyboy

zigmin1589 said:

organum said:

We have the maximum holdings and each month we get something.
This month we got a single £25 which is most unusual.
I realise this is financial gambling but over the many years of holding the bonds the returns have been up and down but overall reasonable whilst not spectacular, hence my question.
Has anyone else had unexpectedly low returns this month?

I have the maximum holding and not had a win for 7 MONTHS. Not happy. I have withdrawn half my holding this morning and will do the same next month.

Jees that is bad! thought my luck was poor :'(

Sg28

DjangoUnchained said:

have had the full holding £50k for a year or two and no spectacular wins so have taken it  out and put it in fixed one year accounts at 5%. apart from £100 which ive left in PB as you never know....

1 year fixed at 5%? Why not 6%?

Albermarle

zigmin1589 said:

organum said:

We have the maximum holdings and each month we get something.
This month we got a single £25 which is most unusual.
I realise this is financial gambling but over the many years of holding the bonds the returns have been up and down but overall reasonable whilst not spectacular, hence my question.
Has anyone else had unexpectedly low returns this month?

I have the maximum holding and not had a win for 7 MONTHS. Not happy. I have withdrawn half my holding this morning and will do the same next month.

By my calculation ( and I could be wrong) the chance of someone with the maximum holding not winning anything for 7 months is One in 2.1 Million

EthicsGradient

Albermarle said:

zigmin1589 said:

organum said:

We have the maximum holdings and each month we get something.
This month we got a single £25 which is most unusual.
I realise this is financial gambling but over the many years of holding the bonds the returns have been up and down but overall reasonable whilst not spectacular, hence my question.
Has anyone else had unexpectedly low returns this month?

I have the maximum holding and not had a win for 7 MONTHS. Not happy. I have withdrawn half my holding this morning and will do the same next month.

By my calculation ( and I could be wrong) the chance of someone with the maximum holding not winning anything for 7 months is One in 2.1 Million

(I see the 1 in 22,000 only applies from August, so recalculated with the current 1 in 24,000 ...)

 Yes, 1 in 2.1 million looks right, using the odds up to now , which are that a single bond has a 1 in 24,000 chance of winning each month. So the chances of not winning are (1 - 1/24000); raise that to the power of 7 * 50,000 and you get 1 in 2.1 million.

For the OP (a couple, in one month), it would be to the power of 2 * 50,000, which is 1 in 64. Tough, but it will happen to someone, and not surprising to see it occasionally reported on MSE. 1 in 2 million, however ...

zigmin1589

Albermarle said:

zigmin1589 said:

organum said:

We have the maximum holdings and each month we get something.
This month we got a single £25 which is most unusual.
I realise this is financial gambling but over the many years of holding the bonds the returns have been up and down but overall reasonable whilst not spectacular, hence my question.
Has anyone else had unexpectedly low returns this month?

I have the maximum holding and not had a win for 7 MONTHS. Not happy. I have withdrawn half my holding this morning and will do the same next month.

By my calculation ( and I could be wrong) the chance of someone with the maximum holding not winning anything for 7 months is One in 2.1 Million

Wow, that is sooo bad. I certainly wouldn't get the same odds of winning. 

techwatcher

zigmin1589 said:

Albermarle said:

zigmin1589 said:

organum said:

We have the maximum holdings and each month we get something.
This month we got a single £25 which is most unusual.
I realise this is financial gambling but over the many years of holding the bonds the returns have been up and down but overall reasonable whilst not spectacular, hence my question.
Has anyone else had unexpectedly low returns this month?

I have the maximum holding and not had a win for 7 MONTHS. Not happy. I have withdrawn half my holding this morning and will do the same next month.

By my calculation ( and I could be wrong) the chance of someone with the maximum holding not winning anything for 7 months is One in 2.1 Million

Wow, that is sooo bad. I certainly wouldn't get the same odds of winning. 

You have been really, really unlucky, but this can happen with randomness and probability. It's very, very unlikely but, as you have found, not impossible.

PixelPound

Sg28 said:

DjangoUnchained said:

have had the full holding £50k for a year or two and no spectacular wins so have taken it  out and put it in fixed one year accounts at 5%. apart from £100 which ive left in PB as you never know....

1 year fixed at 5%? Why not 6%?

Because the post you quoted 2 months old - there wasn't 6% then
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6332491/the-top-fixed-interest-savings-discussion-area/p218

mummytummy

I had over 18 months without a win on maximum holdings.  This year, and I’ve probably jinxed it now, I’ve won £575 😊

EthicsGradient

mummytummy said:

I had over 18 months without a win on maximum holdings.  This year, and I’ve probably jinxed it now, I’ve won £575 😊

At the lowest chances of a win recently (1 in 34,500, between Dec 2020 and June 2022), that would be a 1 in 213.6 billion chance. Are you sure?