Premium bonds unusual situation, for me!

organum

We have the maximum holdings and each month we get something.
This month we got a single £25 which is most unusual.
I realise this is financial gambling but over the many years of holding the bonds the returns have been up and down but overall reasonable whilst not spectacular, hence my question.
Has anyone else had unexpectedly low returns this month?

Sg28

Have a look at the premium bond winner thread. Theres some nice wins on there this month. Also Im pretty sure theres someone on there who went 5 months with 0 wins on max holding.

I only won £50 this month on max. 

strawb_shortcake

I don't think it's unusual, I have max holdings and I don't win every month. It's quite simply the nature of the beast.

I think I had 2 or 3 months last year without a single prize. But other months generally make up for it. 

boingy

I had expectedly low returns this month but that's because I cashed them all in and put it in Chip @3.82%.
Only one PB month in the last five years has beaten the monthly interest from Chip. Of course, this month might have been the one that made me a millionaire! 

Slightly more relevant to your question, in five years of max holdings a typical month was £50 or £75. I had 5 or 6 zero months and one month where I won £250. The average was well below £100 per month though. The tax free aspect used to be more relevant to me but recent life changes mean it is not such an issue now.

Stubod

Even with max holding. statistically there is always a chance of at least one month, (and posssibly more) with no wins. Over the last 3 years I have averaged 2 months a year with 0 wins. Somebody reported on the PB thread they had nothing for several months on the max. holding. That's why with interest rates getting higher it may be time to switch out of PB's and consider a guaranteed bond that can currently earn 5%, as that would guarantee you £166/month, (at 20% tax)?

Swipe

My results on max holding this year so far:

01/01/23		0
01/02/23		25
01/03/23		200
01/04/23		100
01/05/23		0
01/06/23		200

That's a 2.1% return

eskbanker

The probability of a blank month with a maximum holding is 12.5%, i.e. one month in every eight should be expected to have no winnings....

jaceyboy

I have max and so does my wife, I won 1 x £100 and she won 1 x 25, very poor this month as normally we win around £150-£175 each per month, I was thinking of pulling mine out but my mother just one £5150 this month so there is always hope!

cwep2

My wife and I both held the max holding for about a 2yr period.

She consistently won more than me! We only ever won £25, £50 or £100 prizes, she was above the official prize rate, I was below but when you adjust for the high prizes I was close enough to the 'median' return - I recalculated every time the prize rate changed. She won around £250 more than I did over that time.

Now with better rates for easy access, only one of us still has the max amount (higher rate tax payer) and I find the prizes very inconsistent, we have had two months with zero, one £50 and a £125 + £150 which seems like feast or famine.

To be honest with rates going up elsewhere I'm thinking 5%+ 1yr fixes is now better as a higher rate tax payer, unless they up the prize rate pretty sharpish.

boingy

cwep2 said:

 unless they up the prize rate pretty sharpish.

I think NS&I and "pretty sharpish" do not exist in the same universe. 

DjangoUnchained

have had the full holding £50k for a year or two and no spectacular wins so have taken it  out and put it in fixed one year accounts at 5%. apart from £100 which ive left in PB as you never know....