Premium bonds unusual situation, for me!

Malthusian

Albermarle said:

By my calculation ( and I could be wrong) the chance of someone with the maximum holding not winning anything for 7 months is One in 2.1 Million

There are 22 million Premium Bond holders in the country, so patterns with a 1 in 2 million chance will happen all the time. 

Albermarle

Malthusian said:

Albermarle said:

By my calculation ( and I could be wrong) the chance of someone with the maximum holding not winning anything for 7 months is One in 2.1 Million

There are 22 million Premium Bond holders in the country, so patterns with a 1 in 2 million chance will happen all the time. 

Fair comment, what about the one in 213 Billion chance mentioned in the previous post ?

Sg28

Malthusian said:

Albermarle said:

By my calculation ( and I could be wrong) the chance of someone with the maximum holding not winning anything for 7 months is One in 2.1 Million

There are 22 million Premium Bond holders in the country, so patterns with a 1 in 2 million chance will happen all the time. 

However the vast majority of those 22 million won't have the full holding.

DoneWorking

Max holding and no wins for two months
It's the feeling on results day that gets me
Max win was £225

Wondering if it's better to take a rest and go for the definite win of £2,250 Gross on easy access saver 

Malthusian

Albermarle said:

Fair comment, what about the one in 213 Billion chance mentioned in the previous post ?

Yeah, that feels pretty unlikely, so I agree with the "Are you sure?" comment. But it's still possible.
1 in 213 billion is so unlikely that it is definitely good cause to go back to NS&I or your bank statements and make sure you didn't miss a prize or two. It is not so unlikely that, assuming you are correct about not winning anything, it can be considered proof that the draw is rigged and Ernie hates you. 

Sg28 said:

However the vast majority of those 22 million won't have the full holding.

But other 1 in 2 million chances will still happen to lots of them as well, like not winning anything for 19 months with around half a full holding (£26,750).
If you're of the mindset "But the odds of one of them happening to me is astronomically low, therefore it shouldn't happen to me", why on earth are you playing a lottery? "It could be you" is the entire point lulz.

DoneWorking said:

Max holding and no wins for two months

That on the other hand will happen all the time - 1 in 8.

 Wondering if it's better to take a rest and go for the definite win of £2,250 Gross on easy access saver

Key Stage 2 mathematics says probably yes. On the other hand you might miss out on the month you win the jackpot. Although one of the good things about Premium Bonds is that the numbers are not revealed, unlike with the Lottery, where you can easily imagine walking past Currys and seeing your six numbers turning up the week you stop buying a ticket.
The point of a lottery is supposed to be the euphoric rush you get from thinking you might be about to become rich on the day of the draw. If you associate the day of the draw with misery, then Premium Bonds might be the wrong game for you.
You can always split the difference by taking the monthly interest from an easy access saver, and using some or all of it to buy lottery tickets, or put it on the dogs.

eskbanker

Malthusian said:

DoneWorking said:

Max holding and no wins for two months

That on the other hand will happen all the time - 1 in 8.

Just to be clear, it was about one in 80 for both of the last two months (one under the 1 in 22K regime, the other under the 1 in 24K) being blanks.

Sg28

Malthusian said:

Albermarle said:

Fair comment, what about the one in 213 Billion chance mentioned in the previous post ?

Yeah, that feels pretty unlikely, so I agree with the "Are you sure?" comment. But it's still possible.
1 in 213 billion is so unlikely that it is definitely good cause to go back to NS&I or your bank statements and make sure you didn't miss a prize or two. It is not so unlikely that, assuming you are correct about not winning anything, it can be considered proof that the draw is rigged and Ernie hates you. 

Sg28 said:

However the vast majority of those 22 million won't have the full holding.

But other 1 in 2 million chances will still happen to lots of them as well, like not winning anything for 19 months with around half a full holding (£26,750).
If you're of the mindset "But the odds of one of them happening to me is astronomically low, therefore it shouldn't happen to me", why on earth are you playing a lottery? "It could be you" is the entire point lulz.

DoneWorking said:

Max holding and no wins for two months

That on the other hand will happen all the time - 1 in 8.

 Wondering if it's better to take a rest and go for the definite win of £2,250 Gross on easy access saver

Key Stage 2 mathematics says probably yes. On the other hand you might miss out on the month you win the jackpot. Although one of the good things about Premium Bonds is that the numbers are not revealed, unlike with the Lottery, where you can easily imagine walking past Currys and seeing your six numbers turning up the week you stop buying a ticket.
The point of a lottery is supposed to be the euphoric rush you get from thinking you might be about to become rich on the day of the draw. If you associate the day of the draw with misery, then Premium Bonds might be the wrong game for you.
You can always split the difference by taking the monthly interest from an easy access saver, and using some or all of it to buy lottery tickets, or put it on the dogs.

Lottery tickets wouldn't be a good idea, with an RTP of 45% they are one of the lowest return types of gambling. And dogs probably aren't a great deal better.

At least with PB 100% of the amount "gambled" is returned to the "gamblers" 

eskbanker

Sg28 said:

At least with PB 100% of the amount "gambled" is returned to the "gamblers" 

Comparisons between PBs and gambling rarely end well on here, but the consensus view is usually that the amount being gambled is effectively the notional interest that would have been earned elsewhere, since, as you say, the capital is guaranteed and therefore isn't being gambled....

Trapdoor

£750 in the past 12 months for me, on max holdings 😩

I’ve just had a look back through my winnings history and this year I have only had four winning months and it appears from 2020 my fallow months have increased and winning months have had increasingly meagre prizes.

A friend and her daughter have only recently bought into PBs. The friend has about £15k holding and has already won 2x£1000 prizes since she took them out late last year, her daughter with about £8k has had a couple of £200 wins. They find it funny (I don’t) that I appear to be so ‘unlucky’.

My luck is about to change as I’m pulling almost all of my holding out to top up my ISA and I’ll stick the rest in a decent instant access account until next year when I’ll bung another £20k in my ISA.

Clearly when interest rates are reasonable, PBs make much less sense, unless you really do have a savings tax problem.

PixelPound

Malthusian said:

Albermarle said:

Fair comment, what about the one in 213 Billion chance mentioned in the previous post ?

Yeah, that feels pretty unlikely, so I agree with the "Are you sure?" comment. But it's still possible.
1 in 213 billion is so unlikely that it is definitely good cause to go back to NS&I or your bank statements and make sure you didn't miss a prize or two. It is not so unlikely that, assuming you are correct about not winning anything, it can be considered proof that the draw is rigged and Ernie hates you. 

Sg28 said:

However the vast majority of those 22 million won't have the full holding.

But other 1 in 2 million chances will still happen to lots of them as well, like not winning anything for 19 months with around half a full holding (£26,750).
If you're of the mindset "But the odds of one of them happening to me is astronomically low, therefore it shouldn't happen to me", why on earth are you playing a lottery? "It could be you" is the entire point lulz.

DoneWorking said:

Max holding and no wins for two months

That on the other hand will happen all the time - 1 in 8.

 Wondering if it's better to take a rest and go for the definite win of £2,250 Gross on easy access saver

Key Stage 2 mathematics says probably yes. On the other hand you might miss out on the month you win the jackpot. Although one of the good things about Premium Bonds is that the numbers are not revealed, unlike with the Lottery, where you can easily imagine walking past Currys and seeing your six numbers turning up the week you stop buying a ticket.
The point of a lottery is supposed to be the euphoric rush you get from thinking you might be about to become rich on the day of the draw. If you associate the day of the draw with misery, then Premium Bonds might be the wrong game for you.
You can always split the difference by taking the monthly interest from an easy access saver, and using some or all of it to buy lottery tickets, or put it on the dogs.

They are revealed - https://www.nsandi.com/get-to-know-us/winning-bonds-downloads

You could download these and see how close you were to winning a big prize or even £25. I suppose if you cash yours in, you won't see the numbers turn up AFAIK they don't recycle numbers, so a cashed in PB number will never come up as a prize.

From the latest draw 

Lowest number bond that's won
AA105588 (won a £25 prize)

Highest number bond that's won
547GS889222 (won a £50 prize)