Octopus Agile

Chrysalis

Mstty said:

It is probably just there to cover customer service workload the up to two week wait rather than a vehicle to keep customers on higher than SVT rates.

Complete tracker novice here so will see how it all pans out. 

More then likely yeah, bear in mind, the most likely reason someone will leave tracker is if the wholesale prices go high, so they have likely anticipated there will be situations where there will be a flood of exit requests around the same time, and tracker is currently managed manually.

mmmmikey

Chrysalis said:

mmmmikey said:

Pat38493 said:

crumpet_man said:

I have switched to tracker.  Was always my goal but couldn't get on it immediately so went with Agile for the interim.

No solar, no batteries, no EV, GCH and nothing that I can load shift to night time.

Agile has saved me approx £50 per month compared to flexible but Tracker saves me another £5 to £10 with no effort on my part to load shift or plan

Were you already on Agile through last Winter and did you see similar savings in the winter months as well?

Last winter's prices were massively distorted by the EPG so I don't think you can do a useful comparison. It will certainly be interesting to see what this winter holds in store. Although I'm doing well out of Agile at the moment (with very little effort due to the amount of automation) I'm not wedded to it and I'm ready to switch back to E7 or whatever proves best if things change. My planning is on the basis that there is so much uncertainty in the energy market at the moment that it's impossible to predict what will happen this winter with any degree of confidence. So my approach is simply to choose what's best for me now (and nothing comes close to Agile), monitor it closely and switch if I need to.

The EPG only affected the cap on Agile.  So in all the instances when it was below the cap there was actually no EPG intervention which ended up being for most of the winter period.  It was summer and early autumn that was pegged at the cap for long periods (ironically before the EPG period started).

Yes, you make a very valid point and on reflection I now think I've put too much emphasis on the EPG.

Having said that, my underlying thinking is still that historical data is not something to rely too heavily on. The energy market has been all over the place and it's very difficult to know what will happen when we reach some kind of new normal.

mmmmikey

Scot_39 said:

I've never looked into tracker vs agile very closely - just not an option for me - but someone kindly gave me a link and example from

https://energy-stats.uk

I just tried to do a dashboard - one for the c7 weeks since new cap (1st July to 17 Aug) and the EPG discount lifted (for Agile prices it also acted as a deadzone on high rate time slot prices - just as it applied to every unit for normal SVT)

As can be seen clearly looking at daily max prices for the year e.g. EM

https://energy-stats.uk/octopus-agile-east-midlands/

I am not convinced I am reading the output correctly - but on the face of it

The data sets include an average price - per 1/2 hr slot for agile.

for E Midlands 1/7/23 to 17/8/23

Agile daily averages 17.1p all day, 16p excluding 4-7pm and 31.9p 4-7pm.  (time not use weighted ?)

(6pm and 6:30pm slots highest 34p+)

Tracker (daily price) average 16.5p.

(The Ofgem cap in EM - 29.48p/kWh)

So anyone using a significant amount of usage at the peaks vs lows - certainly could be better off on tracker.

But it's too complicated to work out a general rule - as need to weight price with actual usage for each 1/2 slot - to get a true comparison - the 4-7pm has prices c27-c34p - the other 21 hours - prices from c11p to 22p (cheapest just after lunch time not overnight - as it was over last year - but not much in it)

But certainly closer than I was expecting.

And a clear indiciation - for many - tracker is the slightly more "just get on with your life" simple choice - without having to worry about what you switch on / when - especially when that price distribution can vary from day to day.

And please note those are all "high summer" so traditionally low cost days - for any comparisons with Ofgem SVT levels - as Octopus itself warns on it's FAQ for Tracker - prices will be higher in winter - "likely double" their exact wording iirc.

As you allude to, this kind of analysis quickly gets fiendishly difficult and generalisations don't really work. 

Rather than use historical data for comparison, I'm currently working on adding fields to my monitoring dashboard along the lines of "this is what it would have cost you if you'd been on Tracker (or E7 or whatever)". The goal is to automate tariff comparison so I get alerts if Agile starts to look more expensive.

I'm also currently working on making my time of use automation vendor and tariff independent so I can easily switch as needed.

All very much work in progress :-)

Pat38493

mmmmikey said:

Scot_39 said:

I've never looked into tracker vs agile very closely - just not an option for me - but someone kindly gave me a link and example from

https://energy-stats.uk

I just tried to do a dashboard - one for the c7 weeks since new cap (1st July to 17 Aug) and the EPG discount lifted (for Agile prices it also acted as a deadzone on high rate time slot prices - just as it applied to every unit for normal SVT)

As can be seen clearly looking at daily max prices for the year e.g. EM

https://energy-stats.uk/octopus-agile-east-midlands/

I am not convinced I am reading the output correctly - but on the face of it

The data sets include an average price - per 1/2 hr slot for agile.

for E Midlands 1/7/23 to 17/8/23

Agile daily averages 17.1p all day, 16p excluding 4-7pm and 31.9p 4-7pm.  (time not use weighted ?)

(6pm and 6:30pm slots highest 34p+)

Tracker (daily price) average 16.5p.

(The Ofgem cap in EM - 29.48p/kWh)

So anyone using a significant amount of usage at the peaks vs lows - certainly could be better off on tracker.

But it's too complicated to work out a general rule - as need to weight price with actual usage for each 1/2 slot - to get a true comparison - the 4-7pm has prices c27-c34p - the other 21 hours - prices from c11p to 22p (cheapest just after lunch time not overnight - as it was over last year - but not much in it)

But certainly closer than I was expecting.

And a clear indiciation - for many - tracker is the slightly more "just get on with your life" simple choice - without having to worry about what you switch on / when - especially when that price distribution can vary from day to day.

And please note those are all "high summer" so traditionally low cost days - for any comparisons with Ofgem SVT levels - as Octopus itself warns on it's FAQ for Tracker - prices will be higher in winter - "likely double" their exact wording iirc.

As you allude to, this kind of analysis quickly gets fiendishly difficult and generalisations don't really work. 

Rather than use historical data for comparison, I'm currently working on adding fields to my monitoring dashboard along the lines of "this is what it would have cost you if you'd been on Tracker (or E7 or whatever)". The goal is to automate tariff comparison so I get alerts if Agile starts to look more expensive.

I'm also currently working on making my time of use automation vendor and tariff independent so I can easily switch as needed.

All very much work in progress :-)

The octopus compare app seems to have a feature where you can compare your real current tariff history, to a optimised load shifted view of another tariff like Go.  It seems to attempt to calculate your base load which you can then tweak, and then load shifts the rest to the cheapest times.

Scot_39

Chrysalis 

The EPG only affected the cap on Agile.  So in all the instances when it was below the cap there was actually no EPG intervention which ended up being for most of the winter period.  It was summer and early autumn that was pegged at the cap for long periods (ironically before the EPG period started).

Can you explain your version of EPG interaction - as it wasn't how I understood that it worked at all.

Unfortunately Octopus have revised their agile price guide and no longer refer to epg at all.

Does anyone have the old version ?

I was led to believe EPG discounting - from posts here and elsewhere - at least after a short period - operated essentially as a max discount system on each and every half hourly slot price.

A bit like it applied to fixes - cheaper than epg price no help, above epg discounted to epg floor, but only up to max discount.  So could pay more if prices high.

But I got abit lost as there were a couple of changes last autumn to rules, and more than willing to be corrected.

So if the actual wholesale rate linked price went over the regional EPG adjusted price, it was capped at the EPG price until it reached say for electric c50p= c33p epg avg +17p discount, or 66p = c33p+c33p Jan-Mar depending on level of max EPG discount at time.

Then for every penny above Ofgem cap would increase a penny

So 51p-17p or 67p-33p = 34p charged etc

until hit Octopus 100p cap itself - so with EPG discount - paid c83p, c67p, c83p as EPG discount 18p, 33p, 17p etc.

Or in tabular form for the 33p 17p nominal period Apr to Jun.

Raw/Adjusted

10/10
20/20
30/30
33/33
34/33
50/33
51/34
60/43
100/83
101+/83 (via Octopus 100p)

It actually hit the 83p as in Dec22 when the wholsale rate reached c£400/MWh - before Octopus retail multipliers - current web help example 2.2 and fixed cost components added if 4-7pm.

And if look at the minimum 1/2 hourly prices, in Dec spike, also potentially see the same EPG style floor level pricing as seen on the max for vast majority of days Feb to June.

That would seem a better fit to explain the remarkable flat lining seen for most of period before Jul under EPG apart from a few days and the real large wholesale glitches like the Dec 22 spike to c£400/MWh

See max, ave and min daily pricing chart at say

https://energy-stats.uk/octopus-agile-east-midlands/

The big spike section pre EPG was Octopus's own 78p cap - on of their steps in its transition from 35p to a £1.

Until that is July 1st - when the max daily price is far more noisy.

Bendo

Does anyone have a spreadsheet that can be used to put in historical smart meter usage data and Agile region pricing to work out what the cost would have been if on Agile?

Tracker is what I'm looking to go on,  but do want to jump to early with the 9 month wait if prices jump significantly over the colder period and I need to leave it.

MultiFuelBurner

Like others since firstly being on Agile (for two weeks) and realising we didn't want to be restricted (being all electric) we switched to Tracker. Much easier and less bother each day. I digress.....

We have our own spreadsheet, detailing what we would have been paying against the price cap and also what we would be paying on Cosy (another option for us as we have the ASHP)

All very scientific so far.........but manual until I get my head round the API or I carry on drinking beer and just do it manually.

What I don't know is when I hit my point of no return on tracker versus cosy (this is an average of 23p kWh) I presume I can switch from Tracker to another tariff like Cosy (within 2 weeks) I am not confined as I understand it having to go back to the price cap tariff? (SVT)

I understand I man not join tracker again for 9 months? But does that also apply to Agile?

PennineAcute

I don't think (for me anyway) agile is a bother.  No solar panels, and my heating, water and cooker is gas.

Just avoid heavy usage between 4 and 7 (or when the prices are very high) and use heavy usage items outside of this time.  If I really want to be on the ball, I will look for the cheapest times.

I feel that society is just too use to using items at any time of the day.  I've always eaten my evening meal after 7pm, so it is no problem for me.

The only thing I can see being a slight burden is decorating.  I had planned to decorate next year and it would be a tad expensive if I used the wallpaper stripper between 4 and 7.

My electric kettle uses 0.035 kWh of power to boil one cup of water to 95C.  My stove kettle uses 0.07 kWh of gas to boil the same amount of water to 100C.  Outside of peak time, there is little in the cost, so I use the stove kettle all the time.  Life is too hard to keep a check on when the electricity unit rate is low enough to use the kettle to boil my water.

Spoonie_Turtle

MultiFuelBurner said:

I understand I can not join tracker again for 9 months? But does that also apply to Agile?

No, and I think for Tracker it's only because a load of people jumped onto it as a cheap bargain.  So unlikely to apply to Agile in three near future unless it also falls victim to a deal site bandwagon.

MultiFuelBurner

Spoonie_Turtle said:

MultiFuelBurner said:

I understand I can not join tracker again for 9 months? But does that also apply to Agile?

No, and I think for Tracker it's only because a load of people jumped onto it as a cheap bargain.  So unlikely to apply to Agile in three near future unless it also falls victim to a deal site bandwagon.

Cheers that's how I read it. So got my plan of attack lol