Octopus Agile

debitcardmayhem

Been quiet on here lately, everybody on holiday or is that just the wind

EssexHebridean

Not much activity to shout about is there! That said, Saturday looks hopeful. probably not "plunge level hopeful" but I'd be happy to be proved wrong on that!

Netexporter

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82077965#Comment_82077965

Prices are too high to be able to run the computer!

Thank goodness for solar.

TroubledTarts

Yeah the recent high prices have pushed the average price for the month to 7.75p kWh.

The plug in solar is a real bonus right now

debitcardmayhem

I have noticed the lack of DFS notices recently, NESO obviously don't need us to throttle.

Pat38493

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82078828#Comment_82078828

I saw a thread on another forum recently that was talking about an incident that happened on 23rd June where the national frequency went below the operational limit for almost 3 hours in the evening. Seems like they are having issues with forecasting the evening periods, partly because there is so much solar, including “hidden solar” that they don’t know about with folks connecting plug in systems etc, so then when the sun starts to go away the drop off is larger than forecast. Also wind forecasts seems to have been consistently too high over this summer, even on the 2 day ahead forecast which is supposedly the most accurate. However no official NESO notices to reduce usage as far as I know.

Newbie_John

Nothing to do with plug ins, their number is very low, a lot just charge batteries, some are partially self consumed .. lets say 10k plug ins, 5k without batteries, those 5000 self consume a bit so 5000x0.5kW=2500kW , spread across the country. Usage per hour in UK is about 30GWh and thats just 0.0025GWh, less then 0.1%.

Sure, numbers purely guessed, but shows little impact. Id be more concerned about all the illegal canabis plants that drain the grid for free all day long.

Pat38493

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82079137#Comment_82079137

One of the reasons given was “hidden solar” - I guessed that meant mainly plug ins but maybe it’s something else.

Could also be folks who install their own solar/battery system without approval - they may be exporting illegally even if their main goal is to self consume. I am not sure what else is “hidden solar” as defined by neso.

Slinky

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82079434#Comment_82079434

I wonder whether it will get to a situation where someone starts checking google earth for solar systems on unregistered properties? It's not exactly something you can hide is it!

QrizB

including “hidden solar” that they don’t know about

This might be a bit of a red herring.

Unlike CCGTs, nuclear plants, large wind farms etc, most (possibly all) UK solar PV doesn't report live generation info to NESO or Elexon. There's no official central record of what it's generating at any given time. It's only evident as a reduction in demand.

This is why the various websites that monitor UK power generation like Gridwatch, Electric Insights and iamkate all use Sheffield University's estimate for how much solar PV is generating each hour.

https://www.solar.sheffield.ac.uk/pvlive/

If there's been a lot of new solar added this year that hasn't yet been accounted for in the model, it's quite possible that NESO have underestimated how much demand will rise when the sun goes down. That doesn't have to be guerrilla plug-in systems; even pukka MCS rooftop solar can take a while to be notified and make its way through the system.