Octopus Agile

matt_drummer

greenbee said:

debitcardmayhem said:

greenbee said:

I'm regretting discharging the battery given the overnight prices for recharging it! I just need to decide how much I trust the weather forecast - today's generation started pre-9am and was just over 3kWh, and tomorrow should be sunnier - and how much to charge the battery. 

Well i discharged 1.9 kWh and battery at 18% at 2030. Glad I only pay 15.144 to top up overnight

I'm at 56% and will be topping up at a minimum of 16.42, probably an average of 19.13... although if I decide not to go to 100% I can delete the more expensive slots I've currently got set up. 

What do you think your charging and discharging losses are?

19.13p per kWh at 80% is 23.91p per kWh.

More than the SVT?

More than you can import for tomorrow?

Is buying electricity at 19.13p per kWh to store in batteries viable?

Slinky

greenbee said:

I'm regretting discharging the battery given the overnight prices for recharging it! I just need to decide how much I trust the weather forecast - today's generation started pre-9am and was just over 3kWh, and tomorrow should be sunnier - and how much to charge the battery. 

But if you got 87p (72p+15p export), what does it matter if you have to pay 20p to replace it? I'm going to charge from 2-5am

Scot_39

Today the wholesale price has again peaked over the £1/kWh - £1352.90/MWh - £1.3529/kWh for the 16:30 time slot - maybe 16-16:30 or 1630 to 1700 not sure - but both those are when Octopus start to add their P value offset.

That around 25x overnight lows of c£55 / MWh.

Take away the cap of 95p ex vat in the agile pricing formula, and using for simplicity - the regional weighting factor of 2 (other regions higher)

https://octopus.energy/blog/agile-pricing-explained/#pricing

So a D of 2 and a P of 14 here in EM

That would be an uncapped surge price of

(2*135.29+14)+5% = 298.2p = £2.99 per kWh.

And you do wonder

a) How sustainable Octopus cap of £1 on agile really is

b) What level of cap - other suppliers would be willing to put on it - if surge pricing becomes more widespread.

c) How many people would be happy if the cap was raised - or the P value raised - to reflect days like today and the non trivial escalation in peak pricing.

And displaying yet again that although those on surge pricing do benefit on windy days - there is plenty of potential for them to be penalised - at the cheapest point overnight wind was generating 15GW - by 4:30pm - 3.6GW - just 8% of 44.8 GW demand.

greenbee

matt_drummer said:

greenbee said:

debitcardmayhem said:

greenbee said:

I'm regretting discharging the battery given the overnight prices for recharging it! I just need to decide how much I trust the weather forecast - today's generation started pre-9am and was just over 3kWh, and tomorrow should be sunnier - and how much to charge the battery. 

Well i discharged 1.9 kWh and battery at 18% at 2030. Glad I only pay 15.144 to top up overnight

I'm at 56% and will be topping up at a minimum of 16.42, probably an average of 19.13... although if I decide not to go to 100% I can delete the more expensive slots I've currently got set up. 

What do you think your charging and discharging losses are?

19.13p per kWh at 80% is 23.91p per kWh.

More than the SVT?

More than you can import for tomorrow?

Is buying electricity at 19.13p per kWh to store in batteries viable?

Well it's cheaper than I'd pay for daytime Agile use tomorrow - I just have to work out whether I need it or not (today's import since topping up the battery at just over 14p/kWh has been less than 2kWh, with the rest of my use covered by solar generation). As I have the battery it would be idiotic not to use it to maximise the value I get from being on Agile. 

When it comes to the business case for batteries, everyone's will vary. My business case is based on the need to stay employed. 

Slinky said:

greenbee said:

I'm regretting discharging the battery given the overnight prices for recharging it! I just need to decide how much I trust the weather forecast - today's generation started pre-9am and was just over 3kWh, and tomorrow should be sunnier - and how much to charge the battery. 

But if you got 87p (72p+15p export), what does it matter if you have to pay 20p to replace it? I'm going to charge from 2-5am

I've got 2-5 set up at the moment, but I don't think I need it all having worked out today's usage (although the DW Is looking very close to full). 

matt_drummer

greenbee said:

Well it's cheaper than I'd pay for daytime Agile use tomorrow - I just have to work out whether I need it or not (today's import since topping up the battery at just over 14p/kWh has been less than 2kWh, with the rest of my use covered by solar generation). As I have the battery it would be idiotic not to use it to maximise the value I get from being on Agile. 

When it comes to the business case for batteries, everyone's will vary. My business case is based on the need to stay employed. 

I have batteries but I'm not charging them at that rate!

I may as well be on a standard tariff without batteries or E7 with them.

I pay 7p per kWh

Are you sure Agile is the best tariff for you?

You need batteries to keep your job?

QrizB

Scot_39 said:

And you do wonder

a) How sustainable Octopus cap of £1 on agile really is

As I understand it, Octopus pay the wholesale price plus a bunch of largely-fixed additional costs (including an additional supplement during the evening peak). These other costs don't vary much. As a result the "true" cost to Octopus of a £1.3529/kWh +VAT spike is closer to £1.60. So they're selling at a 60p/kWh loss from 1630-1700.

But ... half an hour later, at 1700-1730, the East Mids price is 90.4p/kWh (per Energy Stats). during that slot, the wholesale price will have been ((90.4/1.05)-14)/2= 36p/kWh, and the cost to Octopus will have been more like 60p. They're making 30p/kWh from their Agile customers during that time period.

So long as the evening peak consists of several 30-minute periods that are close to the peak and only one or two that hit it, Octopus should be making a healthy profit. (They'll also have been making good money since about 0900 when the Agile price went above 30p/kWh.)

greenbee

matt_drummer said:

greenbee said:

Well it's cheaper than I'd pay for daytime Agile use tomorrow - I just have to work out whether I need it or not (today's import since topping up the battery at just over 14p/kWh has been less than 2kWh, with the rest of my use covered by solar generation). As I have the battery it would be idiotic not to use it to maximise the value I get from being on Agile. 

When it comes to the business case for batteries, everyone's will vary. My business case is based on the need to stay employed. 

I have batteries but I'm not charging them at that rate!

I may as well be on a standard tariff without batteries or E7 with them.

I pay 7p per kWh

Are you sure Agile is the best tariff for you?

You need batteries to keep your job?

I’m making significant savings against Flux. I don’t qualify for EV/heatpump tariffs, so Agile works out best. Paying 19p to top up the battery beats paying 40p during the day. And is more than compensated for by the low pricing at other times.

And yes, I need a battery for work. 

Chrysalis

Newbie_John said:

Chrysalis said:

Wow I delayed the move to Lifestyle by 3 days and this is my award, what a last but one day, hopefully no glitches in my move.

The bigger thing that stand outs to me is not that 4-7pm hits the cap, but rather we over 50p outside the peak hours.

Octopus likely will never get reading from your last day - as they're slow and 1 day behing, so not sure what will they offer - SVR? So if it's your last day today - don't worry

How did your move go, I seen others reporting in here it went through without issues.

Worried it will be lagged though as Bright app is still waiting for 2 days now.

Also I was tired anyway when I seen the Agile rates for yesterday, so went bed and slept through most of the chaos pricing.

My final day today the 9th, looks more standard, higher off peak, but day rates more in line with averages.

Reading tlcgrantham's reply, I see what you mean now, so I might get out of it I guess if Octopus bill it as SVR.

EssexHebridean

Anyone who works from home, and who lives in an area where power cuts are not an insignificant concern (yes - there are still plenty of areas of the country where this is an issue!) may well need the security of knowing that they can maintain a supply to keep working - I can't see why that's worthy of incredulity in this day and age? I think a lot of us who live in reasonably urban areas, where if the power does go down the solution is usually simple and any outage is very shortlived, have probably forgotten the inconvenience of a power cut which not only we know means no electricity for several hours at best, is also an open-ended event where we can't be absolutely certain it will be back on again by lunchtime, by teatime, or even by the time we go to bed! When you spend time in locations where outages are common, it definitely sharpens the mind towards the issues faced! 

Chrysalis

EssexHebridean said:

Anyone who works from home, and who lives in an area where power cuts are not an insignificant concern (yes - there are still plenty of areas of the country where this is an issue!) may well need the security of knowing that they can maintain a supply to keep working - I can't see why that's worthy of incredulity in this day and age? I think a lot of us who live in reasonably urban areas, where if the power does go down the solution is usually simple and any outage is very shortlived, have probably forgotten the inconvenience of a power cut which not only we know means no electricity for several hours at best, is also an open-ended event where we can't be absolutely certain it will be back on again by lunchtime, by teatime, or even by the time we go to bed! When you spend time in locations where outages are common, it definitely sharpens the mind towards the issues faced! 

I am in an urban area and have had more than 20 power cuts in 5 years, I own two UPS and have become very valuable purchases, the last one had a power outage lasting days for half of the street, and also I had to get a over voltage issue fixed after that outage as well which took them several months to fix.  we also used to get a power cut every Christmas week as well.  Something local I assume didnt have enough capacity.