Are we expecting BOE to remain at 4.75% on 8th February 2025?

lojo1000

fewcloudy said:

lojo1000 said:

fewcloudy said:

lojo1000 said:

If you wanted low interest rates and enjoyed the upside for many years, I hope you prepare for the downside.

For many of us who enjoyed the upside since 2008, there is no downside in the way you are thinking.
The mortgage has gone, due to massive overpayments made possible by over a decade of near zero interest rate.
Those same overpayments are now just called payments, and are diverted into various savings, pension pots, car/holidays etc. Plus the savings themselves are now offering the highest interest rates seen in over a decade.

I would suggest those most affected by a 'downside' are unfortunately those least likely to have benefited from very low interest rates for many years. i.e. first time buyers or younger borrowers.

Property is the most leveraged asset globally including the UK. Whilst the banks will not want to repossess they will eventually be forced into this.

As I said earlier, asset values will decline (relative to goods and services inflation) but liabilities will remain.

If the govts try and save property owners then I expect the young will be up in arms since it will once again be at their expense.


Here are the UK mortgage bank stocks this morning with their 1 day moves. Are you buying?

@lojo1000

 All very interesting, but it doesn't affect me nor address anything I said
After high interest rates through the 90's, I DID want low interest rates thanks, and I DID enjoy the upside for many years thanks, and due to the age and stage I am at in life now, I am very much enjoying these higher interest rates thanks.
All your facts and figures, and what is most leveraged etc won't change that for me and many others.

And I'm not unusual in my circle of friends/family either; you do realise there were many of us on very low rate trackers for nearly a decade right?
Did you know lenders even tried (but failed), to use the courts to be allowed to cancel mortgage agreements because they said they never envisioned customers sitting on near zero percent for life of mortgage? aww those poor lenders my heart bleeds.
It was brilliant.

I'm not sure what you want me to say? Congratulations?

I'm simply pointing out, to the many on this forum who seem uninformed, that asset prices will see significant falls unless central banks/govts are prepared to once again sacrifice the fortunes of the younger generations for the benefit of the older generations.

RelievedSheff

lojo1000 said:

fewcloudy said:

lojo1000 said:

fewcloudy said:

lojo1000 said:

If you wanted low interest rates and enjoyed the upside for many years, I hope you prepare for the downside.

For many of us who enjoyed the upside since 2008, there is no downside in the way you are thinking.
The mortgage has gone, due to massive overpayments made possible by over a decade of near zero interest rate.
Those same overpayments are now just called payments, and are diverted into various savings, pension pots, car/holidays etc. Plus the savings themselves are now offering the highest interest rates seen in over a decade.

I would suggest those most affected by a 'downside' are unfortunately those least likely to have benefited from very low interest rates for many years. i.e. first time buyers or younger borrowers.

Property is the most leveraged asset globally including the UK. Whilst the banks will not want to repossess they will eventually be forced into this.

As I said earlier, asset values will decline (relative to goods and services inflation) but liabilities will remain.

If the govts try and save property owners then I expect the young will be up in arms since it will once again be at their expense.


Here are the UK mortgage bank stocks this morning with their 1 day moves. Are you buying?

@lojo1000

 All very interesting, but it doesn't affect me nor address anything I said
After high interest rates through the 90's, I DID want low interest rates thanks, and I DID enjoy the upside for many years thanks, and due to the age and stage I am at in life now, I am very much enjoying these higher interest rates thanks.
All your facts and figures, and what is most leveraged etc won't change that for me and many others.

And I'm not unusual in my circle of friends/family either; you do realise there were many of us on very low rate trackers for nearly a decade right?
Did you know lenders even tried (but failed), to use the courts to be allowed to cancel mortgage agreements because they said they never envisioned customers sitting on near zero percent for life of mortgage? aww those poor lenders my heart bleeds.
It was brilliant.

I'm not sure what you want me to say? Congratulations?

I'm simply pointing out, to the many on this forum who seem uninformed, that asset prices will see significant falls unless central banks/govts are prepared to once again sacrifice the fortunes of the younger generations for the benefit of the older generations.

Governments do whatever is going to secure them the most votes.

Given that we have an aging population which end of the market do you think they will look after most?

lojo1000

RelievedSheff said:

lojo1000 said:

fewcloudy said:

lojo1000 said:

fewcloudy said:

lojo1000 said:

If you wanted low interest rates and enjoyed the upside for many years, I hope you prepare for the downside.

For many of us who enjoyed the upside since 2008, there is no downside in the way you are thinking.
The mortgage has gone, due to massive overpayments made possible by over a decade of near zero interest rate.
Those same overpayments are now just called payments, and are diverted into various savings, pension pots, car/holidays etc. Plus the savings themselves are now offering the highest interest rates seen in over a decade.

I would suggest those most affected by a 'downside' are unfortunately those least likely to have benefited from very low interest rates for many years. i.e. first time buyers or younger borrowers.

Property is the most leveraged asset globally including the UK. Whilst the banks will not want to repossess they will eventually be forced into this.

As I said earlier, asset values will decline (relative to goods and services inflation) but liabilities will remain.

If the govts try and save property owners then I expect the young will be up in arms since it will once again be at their expense.


Here are the UK mortgage bank stocks this morning with their 1 day moves. Are you buying?

@lojo1000

 All very interesting, but it doesn't affect me nor address anything I said
After high interest rates through the 90's, I DID want low interest rates thanks, and I DID enjoy the upside for many years thanks, and due to the age and stage I am at in life now, I am very much enjoying these higher interest rates thanks.
All your facts and figures, and what is most leveraged etc won't change that for me and many others.

And I'm not unusual in my circle of friends/family either; you do realise there were many of us on very low rate trackers for nearly a decade right?
Did you know lenders even tried (but failed), to use the courts to be allowed to cancel mortgage agreements because they said they never envisioned customers sitting on near zero percent for life of mortgage? aww those poor lenders my heart bleeds.
It was brilliant.

I'm not sure what you want me to say? Congratulations?

I'm simply pointing out, to the many on this forum who seem uninformed, that asset prices will see significant falls unless central banks/govts are prepared to once again sacrifice the fortunes of the younger generations for the benefit of the older generations.

Governments do whatever is going to secure them the most votes.

Given that we have an aging population which end of the market do you think they will look after most?

That's not how UK constituency voting works. If old and young were evenly distributed across constituencies, govts may focus on the majority vote across the nation. But it's the marginal seats in more densely populated areas which matter more and they have a larger leaning toward the younger generations.

dimbo61

Not sure what the last  few posts were about but I was wrong about BOE base rate increase to 4.25% 
Wow we have come a long way  in the last 16/17 months and very very painful for millions of mortgage holders. 
Tough times ahead 

lojo1000

dimbo61 said:

Not sure what the last  few posts were about but I was wrong about BOE base rate increase to 4.25% 
Wow we have come a long way  in the last 16/17 months and very very painful for millions of mortgage holders. 
Tough times ahead 

And the UK mortgage rate just isn't falling as the BoE fails to take inflation seriously (or rather the fear of an economic collapse from raising rates is greater than the fear from an economic collapse from inflation).

sevenhills

lojo1000 said:

And the UK mortgage rate just isn't falling as the BoE fails to take inflation seriously (or rather the fear of an economic collapse from raising rates is greater than the fear from an economic collapse from inflation).

We are in a bad situation when it's not the manual workers that are striking, but the university educated too.
With inflation at 10%+ and pay increases at around 5% that means millions of people will have less money to spend. With a rise in oil prices today, if 5% is taken out of the economy for a second year, the pain will continue.

IAMIAM

Thought I would update the thread title!

dougson

I had wanted to go tracker, but the increase in oil concerns me and means I've gone for 5 years fixed at 4.11 (no fees) instead

IAMIAM

dougson said:

I had wanted to go tracker, but the increase in oil concerns me and means I've gone for 5 years fixed at 4.11 (no fees) instead

Me the same, but deciding on a two year fix now instead

Dandytf

dimbo61 said:

Not sure what the last  few posts were about but I was wrong about BOE base rate increase to 4.25% 
Wow we have come a long way  in the last 16/17 months and very very painful for millions of mortgage holders. 
Tough times ahead 

The idea of edging towards 4.75/5% is kept in mind.