Are we expecting BOE to remain at 4.75% on 8th February 2025?

lojo1000

aoleks said:

if it does, it will be extremely lucrative for many of us. imagine being in huge equity after the madness over the last 2 years and fixing for 5-10 years virtually for free. I'd maximise the loan amount and live kingly for the rest of the decade. but like you said, it won't happen. I see fixed rates going back to sub 3% by spring next year, though.

Pretty much what the issue is which caused this banking crisis....banks issuing long term loans for low fixed rates whilst funding with short term variable deposits.

Hopefully central banks have learned that cutting rates to artificially low levels is not a solution to too much debt in the economy.

RelievedSheff

Given the increase in inflation today then the BOE raising rates tomorrow is now almost a certainty. 

My initial prediction of 0.25% may not be enough now. 0.5% may be more likely.

wheldcj

We have just fixed with Barclays at the 7 year deal they were running just at the beginning of Trusenomics.  3.49%.

I am still not sure if that was bold or reckless but i can at least watch the unfolding rate changes with some neutrality.

Personally i think the inflation rate rise will tip BOE back to a rise but can’t see this being 0.5%.  I think 0.25% and that will be it.

Then it will stay like that for at least 12 months unless there is a risk of deflation or one of our banks starts to struggle like in the US.  I struggle to see an appetite in the medium term for rates any better than 2.5%

Aberdeenangarse

I guess it’ll be raised by 0.25% Until yesterday I assumed they’d have put any further rises on hold due to the mini banking crisis. As I’ve pointed out on many occasions, the rate setters at the BoE are a complete bunch of clowns! I bet they’ll still be telling us that inflation will have dipped to 3% by the end of the year…..not a chance!

wheldcj

Agreed.  Colour me shocked that increasing rates on inflation driven by price increases in (modern) human necessities such food, heating, fuel and housing costs is not going to reduce spending in these areas and therefore inflation.

Inflation will reduce now that oil prices in in particular have stopped increasing and are actually reducing.  BOE will celebrate that their rate increases resolved this rather than that they have largely contributed the absolute lack of growth in the economy.

lojo1000

2023 wage demands are going to be at least 5%. Companies will build those extra costs into their price setting for 2024.

The BoE are living in la la land if they think inflation will hit target in the next 12 months.

Consumers will continue to take on debt to plug the gap between prices and wages. Eventually they will reach the point where they just cannot take on anymore debt.

Demand will collapse in H2 2023. Supply will also collapse. Businesses learned from Covid how to retreat and cut back supply. This will mean prices and inflation remain elevated.

Eventually even the UK banks will have to raise deposit rates else they will go out of business.

If you wanted low interest rates and enjoyed the upside for many years, I hope you prepare for the downside.

housebuyer143

wheldcj said:

Agreed.  Colour me shocked that increasing rates on inflation driven by price increases in (modern) human necessities such food, heating, fuel and housing costs is not going to reduce spending in these areas and therefore inflation.

Inflation will reduce now that oil prices in in particular have stopped increasing and are actually reducing.  BOE will celebrate that their rate increases resolved this rather than that they have largely contributed the absolute lack of growth in the economy.

This! Inflation is up due to shortages with some foods. Increasing base rate will not affect this. 
In fact there increasing base rate has done nothing for the things that pushed inflation up. They are just coming down naturally and thus reducing inflation.

dougson

US increasing by 0.25% plus yesterday's inflation means I think it will go up by 0.25 here too, last week I was fairly confident they wouldn't though so take my judgement with a pinch of salt. 

RelievedSheff

dougson said:

US increasing by 0.25% plus yesterday's inflation means I think it will go up by 0.25 here too, last week I was fairly confident they wouldn't though so take my judgement with a pinch of salt. 

I'm more confident that it will be a 0.5% increase now that the Fed has raised rates again.

[Deleted User]

BBC is reporting that it is definitely going up, only question is by how much.

Sets us back, yet again. Between that an the annual pay cut thanks to inflation we have been put back years.