Domestic Heating Oil prices - have they about stabilised?

GustyGardenGalaxy

I notice that the price for domestic heating oil noticeably went down a couple of days ago but has recovered somewhat today.

As I will soon need a top up for my tank should I be biting the bullet now or is the price likely to drop again?

Alternatively, are there any web sites or blogs which make fairly accurate predictions and which I can keep my eye on?

tripled

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market-data

If the pound weakens or the oil price (in USD) goes up, an increase in heating oil prices will likely follow soon after.

If the pound strengthens or the oil price (in USD) goes down, a decrease in heating oil prices will likely follow soon after.

Heating oil is usually comparatively cheaper in the summer than the winter, as there is less competition for that grade of refined oil.

Anything more than that is just speculation.

GustyGardenGalaxy

Thanks, that seems like a good way to look at it.

NedS

tripled said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market-data

If the pound weakens or the oil price (in USD) goes up, an increase in heating oil prices will likely follow soon after.

If the pound strengthens or the oil price (in USD) goes down, a decrease in heating oil prices will likely follow soon after.

Heating oil is usually comparatively cheaper in the summer than the winter, as there is less competition for that grade of refined oil.

Anything more than that is just speculation.

I've never bought into the summer / winter supply and demand argument. Kerosene is also used as Jet Fuel, and A330's / 737's burn a lot more than our domestic boilers, plus there's a lot more flights in the summer as we all jet off on our holidays which has to offset against less heating use.

Longwalker

No point waiting till summer when you need the oil now

I use 3, sometimes 4 fills a year, I have to buy as I need it 

Still last weeks fill was £200 quid cheaper then the one before Christmas 

Apodemus

NedS said:

tripled said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market-data

If the pound weakens or the oil price (in USD) goes up, an increase in heating oil prices will likely follow soon after.

If the pound strengthens or the oil price (in USD) goes down, a decrease in heating oil prices will likely follow soon after.

Heating oil is usually comparatively cheaper in the summer than the winter, as there is less competition for that grade of refined oil.

Anything more than that is just speculation.

I've never bought into the summer / winter supply and demand argument. Kerosene is also used as Jet Fuel, and A330's / 737's burn a lot more than our domestic boilers, plus there's a lot more flights in the summer as we all jet off on our holidays which has to offset against less heating use.

Yes, it seems to be one of these truisms which may actually be complete myth - probably put-about because the local oil companies want to spread deliveries out as much as possible through the year.  I've never found it cheaper in summer and there is no discernible seasonal pattern to the data on the link that PhilHornby as linked to above.

Qyburn

Boilerjuice prices bear no resemblance to our local pricing. For example in March where the show a peak of £1.50 our price was 96p, and our actual peak at only just over £1 came in late June. Our prices tend to rise from August onwards, as they say after the Turriff Show.

NedS

Apodemus said:

NedS said:

tripled said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market-data

If the pound weakens or the oil price (in USD) goes up, an increase in heating oil prices will likely follow soon after.

If the pound strengthens or the oil price (in USD) goes down, a decrease in heating oil prices will likely follow soon after.

Heating oil is usually comparatively cheaper in the summer than the winter, as there is less competition for that grade of refined oil.

Anything more than that is just speculation.

I've never bought into the summer / winter supply and demand argument. Kerosene is also used as Jet Fuel, and A330's / 737's burn a lot more than our domestic boilers, plus there's a lot more flights in the summer as we all jet off on our holidays which has to offset against less heating use.

Yes, it seems to be one of these truisms which may actually be complete myth - probably put-about because the local oil companies want to spread deliveries out as much as possible through the year.  I've never found it cheaper in summer and there is no discernible seasonal pattern to the data on the link that PhilHornby as linked to above.

Yes, the actual availability of delivery slots may be a factor in driving up prices in winter, if people all run low during a cold snap, causing a dislocation between local kerosene pricing and the price of oil.