Why are Energy Prices not falling?

tlcgrantham

MattMattMattUK said:

SnakePlissken said:

Prices for day ahead gas now down to pre ukraine war level

UK gas prices have also dropped back from their highs earlier this year. The day-ahead gas price closed at 155p per therm yesterday, compared with 200p/therm at the start of 2022, and over 500p/therm in August.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/063732ceadf8eb30acff2e1c9159b6ddcf7a1397/0_0_697_380/master/697.jpg?width=700&quality=45&dpr=2&s=none


https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2022/dec/29/european-natural-gas-prices-drop-rouble-uk-mortgage-oil-china-covid-business-live

Day ahead prices are irrelevant when it comes to costs paid by consumers, amounts bought on day ahead are less than 1% of supply. The gap between Christmas and New Year, when much of industry is shut down and many large users are offline means day ahead prices always fall as it is highly unlikely that the networks will need to purchase gas as very short notice, even more with the temperature having risen considerably. Sterling is also 18% lower than before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, so even a flat USD price means a sizeable increase for the UK.

Octopus Tracker customers do benefit from “Day Ahead” prices. My Gas Tracker price today is 7.2p/kwh and Electricity Tracker is around 12.00p/kwh. 🤗

bristolleedsfan

MattMattMattUK said:

SnakePlissken said:

Prices for day ahead gas now down to pre ukraine war level

UK gas prices have also dropped back from their highs earlier this year. The day-ahead gas price closed at 155p per therm yesterday, compared with 200p/therm at the start of 2022, and over 500p/therm in August.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/063732ceadf8eb30acff2e1c9159b6ddcf7a1397/0_0_697_380/master/697.jpg?width=700&quality=45&dpr=2&s=none


https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2022/dec/29/european-natural-gas-prices-drop-rouble-uk-mortgage-oil-china-covid-business-live

. Sterling is also 18% lower than before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, so even a flat USD price means a sizeable increase for the UK.

I make Sterling about 10% lower than USD comparing calendar month prior to Russian invasion of Ukraine with now.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/945531/exrates-monthly-0121.csv/preview

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/data/currencies/gbp-pairs/GBPUSD-exchange-rate

[Deleted User]

SnakePlissken said:

Prices for day ahead gas now down to pre ukraine war level

Tariffs such as Octopus Tracker and Agile show market swings in their daily pricing. However, what goes down quickly can go up quickly as well.

Alnat1

It's been quite windy so the turbines are generating a lot of electricity. This means less demand on gas to generate electricity and the day ahead prices drop.

Chrysalis

tlcgrantham said:

MattMattMattUK said:

SnakePlissken said:

Prices for day ahead gas now down to pre ukraine war level

UK gas prices have also dropped back from their highs earlier this year. The day-ahead gas price closed at 155p per therm yesterday, compared with 200p/therm at the start of 2022, and over 500p/therm in August.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/063732ceadf8eb30acff2e1c9159b6ddcf7a1397/0_0_697_380/master/697.jpg?width=700&quality=45&dpr=2&s=none


https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2022/dec/29/european-natural-gas-prices-drop-rouble-uk-mortgage-oil-china-covid-business-live

Day ahead prices are irrelevant when it comes to costs paid by consumers, amounts bought on day ahead are less than 1% of supply. The gap between Christmas and New Year, when much of industry is shut down and many large users are offline means day ahead prices always fall as it is highly unlikely that the networks will need to purchase gas as very short notice, even more with the temperature having risen considerably. Sterling is also 18% lower than before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, so even a flat USD price means a sizeable increase for the UK.

Octopus Tracker customers do benefit from “Day Ahead” prices. My Gas Tracker price today is 7.2p/kwh and Electricity Tracker is around 12.00p/kwh. 🤗

Apparently we are irrelevant.

Chrysalis

Alnat1 said:

It's been quite windy so the turbines are generating a lot of electricity. This means less demand on gas to generate electricity and the day ahead prices drop.

Yep I came to same conclusion.

Spoonie_Turtle

Chrysalis said:

tlcgrantham said:

MattMattMattUK said:

SnakePlissken said:

Prices for day ahead gas now down to pre ukraine war level

UK gas prices have also dropped back from their highs earlier this year. The day-ahead gas price closed at 155p per therm yesterday, compared with 200p/therm at the start of 2022, and over 500p/therm in August.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/063732ceadf8eb30acff2e1c9159b6ddcf7a1397/0_0_697_380/master/697.jpg?width=700&quality=45&dpr=2&s=none


https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2022/dec/29/european-natural-gas-prices-drop-rouble-uk-mortgage-oil-china-covid-business-live

Day ahead prices are irrelevant when it comes to costs paid by consumers, amounts bought on day ahead are less than 1% of supply. The gap between Christmas and New Year, when much of industry is shut down and many large users are offline means day ahead prices always fall as it is highly unlikely that the networks will need to purchase gas as very short notice, even more with the temperature having risen considerably. Sterling is also 18% lower than before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, so even a flat USD price means a sizeable increase for the UK.

Octopus Tracker customers do benefit from “Day Ahead” prices. My Gas Tracker price today is 7.2p/kwh and Electricity Tracker is around 12.00p/kwh. 🤗

Apparently we are irrelevant.

We are irrelevant to the standard variable tariff and the price cap set by Ofgem.

We are only really relevant to Octopus showing how it can be done.  And these types of tariff wouldn't suit everyone anyway.  Tbh if we were paying full Tracker price (capped 55p for elec) without the EPG discount we would have had to seriously consider coming off.

Chrysalis

Spoonie_Turtle said:

Chrysalis said:

tlcgrantham said:

MattMattMattUK said:

SnakePlissken said:

Prices for day ahead gas now down to pre ukraine war level

UK gas prices have also dropped back from their highs earlier this year. The day-ahead gas price closed at 155p per therm yesterday, compared with 200p/therm at the start of 2022, and over 500p/therm in August.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/063732ceadf8eb30acff2e1c9159b6ddcf7a1397/0_0_697_380/master/697.jpg?width=700&quality=45&dpr=2&s=none


https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2022/dec/29/european-natural-gas-prices-drop-rouble-uk-mortgage-oil-china-covid-business-live

Day ahead prices are irrelevant when it comes to costs paid by consumers, amounts bought on day ahead are less than 1% of supply. The gap between Christmas and New Year, when much of industry is shut down and many large users are offline means day ahead prices always fall as it is highly unlikely that the networks will need to purchase gas as very short notice, even more with the temperature having risen considerably. Sterling is also 18% lower than before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, so even a flat USD price means a sizeable increase for the UK.

Octopus Tracker customers do benefit from “Day Ahead” prices. My Gas Tracker price today is 7.2p/kwh and Electricity Tracker is around 12.00p/kwh. 🤗

Apparently we are irrelevant.

We are irrelevant to the standard variable tariff and the price cap set by Ofgem.

We are only really relevant to Octopus showing how it can be done.  And these types of tariff wouldn't suit everyone anyway.  Tbh if we were paying full Tracker price (capped 55p for elec) without the EPG discount we would have had to seriously consider coming off.

Mine is 35p for reference.

Irrelevant was the wrong word to use, never agreed with the assumptions that a minority of people dont matter.

Not applicable to SVR would have been a better phrase.

Spoonie_Turtle

Chrysalis said:

Spoonie_Turtle said:

Chrysalis said:

tlcgrantham said:

MattMattMattUK said:

SnakePlissken said:

Prices for day ahead gas now down to pre ukraine war level

UK gas prices have also dropped back from their highs earlier this year. The day-ahead gas price closed at 155p per therm yesterday, compared with 200p/therm at the start of 2022, and over 500p/therm in August.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/063732ceadf8eb30acff2e1c9159b6ddcf7a1397/0_0_697_380/master/697.jpg?width=700&quality=45&dpr=2&s=none


https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2022/dec/29/european-natural-gas-prices-drop-rouble-uk-mortgage-oil-china-covid-business-live

Day ahead prices are irrelevant when it comes to costs paid by consumers, amounts bought on day ahead are less than 1% of supply. The gap between Christmas and New Year, when much of industry is shut down and many large users are offline means day ahead prices always fall as it is highly unlikely that the networks will need to purchase gas as very short notice, even more with the temperature having risen considerably. Sterling is also 18% lower than before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, so even a flat USD price means a sizeable increase for the UK.

Octopus Tracker customers do benefit from “Day Ahead” prices. My Gas Tracker price today is 7.2p/kwh and Electricity Tracker is around 12.00p/kwh. 🤗

Apparently we are irrelevant.

We are irrelevant to the standard variable tariff and the price cap set by Ofgem.

We are only really relevant to Octopus showing how it can be done.  And these types of tariff wouldn't suit everyone anyway.  Tbh if we were paying full Tracker price (capped 55p for elec) without the EPG discount we would have had to seriously consider coming off.

Mine is 35p for reference.

Irrelevant was the wrong word to use, never agreed with the assumptions that a minority of people dont matter.

Not applicable to SVR would have been a better phrase.

That's the thing, the lower caps on the older tariff versions are only in place because Octopus honour ongoing agreements.

As wholesale prices rose and they had to increase their own tariff caps, each new version became less of a no-brainer.  The most recent versions have Octopus caps of 100p/kWh, though it seems Tracker is still withdrawn.  So the low prices in the troughs are great, but even with the EPG discount it's still a huge gamble whether those newer tariffs will work out cheaper overall taking into consideration how high the peaks could be.

ariarnia

Spoonie_Turtle said:

Chrysalis said:

tlcgrantham said:

MattMattMattUK said:

SnakePlissken said:

Prices for day ahead gas now down to pre ukraine war level

UK gas prices have also dropped back from their highs earlier this year. The day-ahead gas price closed at 155p per therm yesterday, compared with 200p/therm at the start of 2022, and over 500p/therm in August.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/063732ceadf8eb30acff2e1c9159b6ddcf7a1397/0_0_697_380/master/697.jpg?width=700&quality=45&dpr=2&s=none


https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2022/dec/29/european-natural-gas-prices-drop-rouble-uk-mortgage-oil-china-covid-business-live

Day ahead prices are irrelevant when it comes to costs paid by consumers, amounts bought on day ahead are less than 1% of supply. The gap between Christmas and New Year, when much of industry is shut down and many large users are offline means day ahead prices always fall as it is highly unlikely that the networks will need to purchase gas as very short notice, even more with the temperature having risen considerably. Sterling is also 18% lower than before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, so even a flat USD price means a sizeable increase for the UK.

Octopus Tracker customers do benefit from “Day Ahead” prices. My Gas Tracker price today is 7.2p/kwh and Electricity Tracker is around 12.00p/kwh. 🤗

Apparently we are irrelevant.

We are irrelevant to the standard variable tariff and the price cap set by Ofgem.

We are only really relevant to Octopus showing how it can be done.  And these types of tariff wouldn't suit everyone anyway.  Tbh if we were paying full Tracker price (capped 55p for elec) without the EPG discount we would have had to seriously consider coming off.

or how it can't really be done? i mean without the subsidy from the goverment the model of tracking the market with a margin and having a cap at all is risky for both octopus and the customer. we looked at it when all this energy crisis stuff was just kicking off and oh liked it (and if we hadn't got on our current fix we probably would have signed up) but i was really uncomfortable with the lack of predictability or control over the actual cost at the end of the month. with the government cap its great but as you say without that cap i could see everyone dropping directly to the standard variable and no one sticking with it for the odd cheap times.