Why are Energy Prices not falling?

aaiiee

Are there any data published on usage - I was wondering if the stories of consumers cutting back are reflected in a reduction in overall demand and if so how much - obviously we would need to compare based on an adjustment for temperature.  For example this December looks like ending up about 3 degrees cooler than December 21.

Not sure if it answers your question, but https://gridwatch.co.uk/ shows electricity usage for today/ yesterday/last month/ this year/last year. This year's usage would appear to be slightly above last years- possibly last year still affected by Covid restrictions..

I don't know if there is an equivalent website for gas usage.

ariarnia

michaels said:

MattMattMattUK said:

The link to the Cornwall Insights calculations based on current market prices are below. How that would factor in based on a specific three month price per therm I do not know as they take account of a full range of factors to calculate their estimate. 200p per therm would still be more than three times the average of the previous five years so even if longer term prices settle at they level it would leave prices far higher than historic levels.

https://www.cornwall-insight.com/press/cornwall-insight-responds-to-the-announcement-of-the-january-price-cap/

That was published late November.  Since when the 3 month ahead prices have generally fallen (by about 1 third?)  Could this mean that current estimates might also be about 30% lower than those ones?  Obviously probably still at / above the revised EPG but closer.

were currently in the monitoring period for the april cap so the next anouncement and response would be due some time in mid feb. 

dunstonh

I have been tracking the price of Crude Oil and Natural gas.

Have you factored the exchange rate into them?

My question is and I really want someone like Martin Lewis to come onboard, as he probably knows more about this than anyone, why are consumers being ripped off and prices not falling

Because the cost is above the subsidy.   The price has some way to fall yet before it gets below the subsidy.

spot1034

I saw someone interviewed on CNBC last week who was suggesting that oil will move back up towards the $100 a barrel level in 2023. Only one opinion, but it doesn't follow at all that just because the price has been weak the past few weeks that this will continue.

xeny

mda99das said:

 Oil well probably head to 55-60 USD / barrel. 

No chance that OPEC will reduce production if that looks remotely likely?

ariarnia

on the topic of the topic 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64102180

Russia bans oil sales to countries using price cap

Nebulous2

I'm not tracking anything, but I cast an eye over Brent crude prices on the BBC market prices page and it has been heading up again recently. 

There is something odd with the price of diesel however. I live in a small town 50 miles or so from a large one, with a good range of supermarkets. 

The big town has always been cheaper for fuel in my experience, typically by 10p per litre. About 15 miles away there is an Asda self-serve pump which sometimes came close, but nothing else did. 

In the last couple of weeks the small local retailers are beating the supermarkets 50 miles away. Not by much, 2p or so a litre, but it is surprising as it is so unusual. 

Mstty

Nebulous2 said:

I'm not tracking anything, but I cast an eye over Brent crude prices on the BBC market prices page and it has been heading up again recently. 

There is something odd with the price of diesel however. I live in a small town 50 miles or so from a large one, with a good range of supermarkets. 

The big town has always been cheaper for fuel in my experience, typically by 10p per litre. About 15 miles away there is an Asda self-serve pump which sometimes came close, but nothing else did. 

In the last couple of weeks the small local retailers are beating the supermarkets 50 miles away. Not by much, 2p or so a litre, but it is surprising as it is so unusual. 

I use this little app (not whilst driving)

It has made one particular petrol station to consistently be the cheapest around for 20 miles. So when passing we save ourselves £4-8 per fill.

https://www.petrolprices.com/download-the-app/

SnakePlissken

Prices for day ahead gas now down to pre ukraine war level

UK gas prices have also dropped back from their highs earlier this year. The day-ahead gas price closed at 155p per therm yesterday, compared with 200p/therm at the start of 2022, and over 500p/therm in August.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/063732ceadf8eb30acff2e1c9159b6ddcf7a1397/0_0_697_380/master/697.jpg?width=700&quality=45&dpr=2&s=none


https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2022/dec/29/european-natural-gas-prices-drop-rouble-uk-mortgage-oil-china-covid-business-live

MattMattMattUK

SnakePlissken said:

Prices for day ahead gas now down to pre ukraine war level

UK gas prices have also dropped back from their highs earlier this year. The day-ahead gas price closed at 155p per therm yesterday, compared with 200p/therm at the start of 2022, and over 500p/therm in August.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/063732ceadf8eb30acff2e1c9159b6ddcf7a1397/0_0_697_380/master/697.jpg?width=700&quality=45&dpr=2&s=none


https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2022/dec/29/european-natural-gas-prices-drop-rouble-uk-mortgage-oil-china-covid-business-live

Day ahead prices are irrelevant when it comes to costs paid by consumers, amounts bought on day ahead are less than 1% of supply. The gap between Christmas and New Year, when much of industry is shut down and many large users are offline means day ahead prices always fall as it is highly unlikely that the networks will need to purchase gas as very short notice, even more with the temperature having risen considerably. Sterling is also 18% lower than before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, so even a flat USD price means a sizeable increase for the UK.