Will UK interest rates rise next week?

aroominyork

sebtomato said:

aroominyork said:

What does the market think? What rise is already built into the price of short/medium dated gilts?

Why don't you tell us?

Interesting question. Is there a way to isolate that factor and so calculate the market's expectation?

Altior

Who knows whether it will be too early to have an impact on the imminent MPC, the rhetoric is that the new team in government will be 'reminding' the BoE of their primary objective/responsibility, and their independence.

Albermarle

Krakkkers said:

Trying to figure out if we will see a 4% fixed rate savings deal this year.

I am sure this is about the third time you have asked exactly the same question....

Anyway my guess is for 0.75% this month, plus a further 0.5% later this year. Then with Winter/recession starting to bite, that will be it. So probably we will see 4% fixed rates but nothing much above that.

saucer

Albermarle said:

Krakkkers said:

Trying to figure out if we will see a 4% fixed rate savings deal this year.

I am sure this is about the third time you have asked exactly the same question....

Anyway my guess is for 0.75% this month, plus a further 0.5% later this year. Then with Winter/recession starting to bite, that will be it. So probably we will see 4% fixed rates but nothing much above that.

Imported inflation isnt going away though, and the pound continues to look weak which is part of the problem. So from that perspective I can't see them coming down much either for a year or two

Exodi

Sebo027 said:

I don't typically attempt to time the market, but happen to have some spare cash lying around and I'm going to wait and see if there's another dip in the market after the rate rise is announced. It's happened every quarter this year, ref below. 6000 on SWDA and I'll pull the trigger. 

The UK is 4.25% of that ETF - the impact on a global tracker would be like dropping a grain of sand in a swimming pool, you wouldn't notice the ripples.

CompulsiveSaver

Altior said:

Who knows whether it will be too early to have an impact on the imminent MPC, the rhetoric is that the new team in government will be 'reminding' the BoE of their primary objective/responsibility, and their independence.

Ha ha ha, yes of course the government definitely will be reminding them the target is 2% and that the BOE is independent, just like successive governments have been doing for the last 25 years...

callum9999

Sebo027 said:

I don't typically attempt to time the market, but happen to have some spare cash lying around and I'm going to wait and see if there's another dip in the market after the rate rise is announced. It's happened every quarter this year, ref below. 6000 on SWDA and I'll pull the trigger. 

I'm no investment expert, but do the "quarterly dips" coincide with quarterly dividend payments?

When funds pay out dividends they lose value, for obvious reasons.

masonic

callum9999 said:

Sebo027 said:

I don't typically attempt to time the market, but happen to have some spare cash lying around and I'm going to wait and see if there's another dip in the market after the rate rise is announced. It's happened every quarter this year, ref below. 6000 on SWDA and I'll pull the trigger. 

I'm no investment expert, but do the "quarterly dips" coincide with quarterly dividend payments?

When funds pay out dividends they lose value, for obvious reasons.

The (Acc) at the end of the fund name suggests probably not in this case.

Grumpy_chap

Maybe I am being cynical, but base rate decision on Thursday next week.
Expect a big rise.
Followed on Friday by tax cutting budget...

P933alilli

Krakkkers said:

Trying to figure out if we will see a 4% fixed rate savings deal this year.

Oxbury Bank's 5 year fixed rate bond at 3.7% allows you to compound the interest through to maturity. If you did that it would earn interest of c. 3.984% per year! You have to leave it for five years though!