Will UK interest rates rise next week?

t1redmonkey

Inflation apparently down from 10.1% to 9.9% (CPI).  But core inflation (excluding food and energy) is up to 6.3%.  No doubt the BOE will use the slight reduction in CPI inflation as an excuse to only raise rates by 0.5% even though the base rate will still be far behind both measures of inflation regardless.

Rollinghome

t1redmonkey said:

Inflation apparently down from 10.1% to 9.9% (CPI).  But core inflation (excluding food and energy) is up to 6.3%.  No doubt the BOE will use the slight reduction in CPI inflation as an excuse to only raise rates by 0.5% even though the base rate will still be far behind both measures of inflation regardless.

To be pedantic, the CPI isn't down it's up again, from 122.5 for July to 123.1 for August.

It's the year-on-year % increase that's slowed down a tad since the previous 12 month period.

t1redmonkey

Ah I must've misread, thanks for the clarification.

Sebo027

I don't typically attempt to time the market, but happen to have some spare cash lying around and I'm going to wait and see if there's another dip in the market after the rate rise is announced. It's happened every quarter this year, ref below. 6000 on SWDA and I'll pull the trigger. 

london21

Very likely will be increased on the 22/09
might be 0.5 or 0.75% increase. 

masonic

Sebo027 said:

I don't typically attempt to time the market, but happen to have some spare cash lying around and I'm going to wait and see if there's another dip in the market after the rate rise is announced. It's happened every quarter this year, ref below. 6000 on SWDA and I'll pull the trigger.

Interest rates are not reviewed once per quarter. UK rates aren't going to have much impact on other the other countries that make up nearly 95% of the MSCI World index. Apart from that, it seems you've spotted a pattern nobody else could, so you're probably on to a winner. You could make even more money by shorting the market just before the rate decision.

Rollinghome

t1redmonkey said:

Ah I must've misread, thanks for the clarification.

No, I'm sure you read it right, as it would come from almost any paper out there.  It's just that the press like to call the "CPI Annual Rate", which is given as a percentage, "the CPI", whereas the actual CPI is the index used to calculate the CPI Annual Rate and given as a number.  I'm just being pedantic, sorry. You can get it from the horse's mouth at https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices

sebtomato

aroominyork said:

What does the market think? What rise is already built into the price of short/medium dated gilts?

Why don't you tell us?

Money_Grabber13579

MisterMotivated said:

I estimate they'll round it up to 3.14%

Yum…I like Pi… 😋

sevenhills

t1redmonkey said:

Inflation apparently down from 10.1% to 9.9% (CPI).  But core inflation (excluding food and energy) is up to 6.3%.  No doubt the BOE will use the slight reduction in CPI inflation as an excuse to only raise rates by 0.5% even though the base rate will still be far behind both measures of inflation regardless.

Or if you look at RPI inflation, that is roughly level at 12.3%