Electricity prices worldwide

MattMattMattUK

MouldyOldDough said:

QrizB said:

MouldyOldDough said:

markin said:

Uk are competing for the 30% from norway and for the lng. Now if the energy companies had got 2 year contracts when it was still cheap we would all be good.

But we have our own supply 

Only 50% of the gas used in the UK comes from domestic spources, the other 50% is imported.

So the UK is not even self sufficient in domestic supplies as it stands 

We have not been for some time, I think around two decades now.

MouldyOldDough said:
with Gas boilers being banned from 2025 on new properties - how many more GW of electrical power are going to be required to heat homes and that's wthout all the extra electrical power required by the EVs that are going to be required due to the increasing cost of petrol..

We have installed capacity of around 76GW, however we are due to lose about 8GW of that over the next two years (coal and nuclear plants being shut down). Gas boilers are not being banned, the installation of them in new properties is being banned which is somewhat different. New builds will be built with good insulation and heat pumps, older buildings will still be allowed boilers, with the potential solution being insulation and heat pumps, or insulation. That being said we will need greater generation capacity going forward even with increasingly efficient technology, this will come from a combination of new nuclear and renewables. Due to the generation patterns of renewables we will also need large amounts of storage and also to build over capacity.

MouldyOldDough said:

I have said it before and will no doubt say it again - but things just do not add up - the UK is going to have serious energy problems in a few years

The problem is the public, they want short termism rather than long term planning, so governments keep kicking the an down the road. We will likely miss the emissions reductions targets as well as the net-zero commitment by some significant way, as well as facing issues with supply. Things add up very well, the UK will have a capacity shortage, as well as relying on fossil fuels too much for energy, it just does not add up in the way people think it will. 

MattMattMattUK

MouldyOldDough said:

Also the "green" reasons /excuses are a waste of time

Do people believe that if we in the UK cut back 10% on greenhouse gases - it will  have any effect at all on climate change ?

It will have an impact on climate change, it will just not be significant. Also the plan is not not cut back 10%, but long term for net-zero, no that I think we will hit that on target. 

MouldyOldDough said:

Of course it won't - China and India are still building new coal fired power stations

India is a problem, probably the problem really. China is building coal, but only as a stop gap, it is also building more renewable and nuclear power than any other country in the world and will likely hit net zero before much of the West.

MouldyOldDough said:

Why should the UK always be the one who gets stung by the ineptitude of others ?

We are all in climate change together, we have to do our part. Historically the UK is the worlds largest polluter per capita. We also have pushed technologically, developed many of the solutions and mitigating technologies, it would make sense to deploy them and be a world leader. 

MouldyOldDough

MattMattMattUK said:

MouldyOldDough said:

QrizB said:

MouldyOldDough said:

markin said:

Uk are competing for the 30% from norway and for the lng. Now if the energy companies had got 2 year contracts when it was still cheap we would all be good.

But we have our own supply 

Only 50% of the gas used in the UK comes from domestic spources, the other 50% is imported.

So the UK is not even self sufficient in domestic supplies as it stands 

We have not been for some time, I think around two decades now.

MouldyOldDough said:
with Gas boilers being banned from 2025 on new properties - how many more GW of electrical power are going to be required to heat homes and that's wthout all the extra electrical power required by the EVs that are going to be required due to the increasing cost of petrol..

We have installed capacity of around 76GW, however we are due to lose about 8GW of that over the next two years (coal and nuclear plants being shut down). Gas boilers are not being banned, the installation of them in new properties is being banned which is somewhat different. New builds will be built with good insulation and heat pumps, older buildings will still be allowed boilers, with the potential solution being insulation and heat pumps, or insulation. That being said we will need greater generation capacity going forward even with increasingly efficient technology, this will come from a combination of new nuclear and renewables. Due to the generation patterns of renewables we will also need large amounts of storage and also to build over capacity.

MouldyOldDough said:

I have said it before and will no doubt say it again - but things just do not add up - the UK is going to have serious energy problems in a few years

The problem is the public, they want short termism rather than long term planning, so governments keep kicking the an down the road. We will likely miss the emissions reductions targets as well as the net-zero commitment by some significant way, as well as facing issues with supply. Things add up very well, the UK will have a capacity shortage, as well as relying on fossil fuels too much for energy, it just does not add up in the way people think it will. 

But heat pumps still use a lot of electrical power and most/many houses do not have enough land for ground source heat pumps (as well as the cost - £15k-£20k)

Peak demand of UK is around 170GW (2020)  - What do you expect it to rise to by 2030 ?

MattMattMattUK

MouldyOldDough said:

MattMattMattUK said:

MouldyOldDough said:

QrizB said:

MouldyOldDough said:

markin said:

Uk are competing for the 30% from norway and for the lng. Now if the energy companies had got 2 year contracts when it was still cheap we would all be good.

But we have our own supply 

Only 50% of the gas used in the UK comes from domestic spources, the other 50% is imported.

So the UK is not even self sufficient in domestic supplies as it stands 

We have not been for some time, I think around two decades now.

MouldyOldDough said:
with Gas boilers being banned from 2025 on new properties - how many more GW of electrical power are going to be required to heat homes and that's wthout all the extra electrical power required by the EVs that are going to be required due to the increasing cost of petrol..

We have installed capacity of around 76GW, however we are due to lose about 8GW of that over the next two years (coal and nuclear plants being shut down). Gas boilers are not being banned, the installation of them in new properties is being banned which is somewhat different. New builds will be built with good insulation and heat pumps, older buildings will still be allowed boilers, with the potential solution being insulation and heat pumps, or insulation. That being said we will need greater generation capacity going forward even with increasingly efficient technology, this will come from a combination of new nuclear and renewables. Due to the generation patterns of renewables we will also need large amounts of storage and also to build over capacity.

MouldyOldDough said:

I have said it before and will no doubt say it again - but things just do not add up - the UK is going to have serious energy problems in a few years

The problem is the public, they want short termism rather than long term planning, so governments keep kicking the an down the road. We will likely miss the emissions reductions targets as well as the net-zero commitment by some significant way, as well as facing issues with supply. Things add up very well, the UK will have a capacity shortage, as well as relying on fossil fuels too much for energy, it just does not add up in the way people think it will. 

But heat pumps still use a lot of electrical power and most/many houses do not have enough land for ground source heat pumps (as well as the cost - £15k-£20k)

Those are solvable problems in most cases. GSHPs are the better option where possible and the cost could come down significantly if installation was scaled up. Space for most houses with an outside area can be managed by using a borehole for the GSHP rather than trench installation, although they are usually not an option for flats. ASHPs are less efficient, and yes both use a lot more electricity than a gas boiler, but generation capacity can and should be scaled up over time.

MouldyOldDough said:

Peak demand of UK is around 170GW (2020)  - What do you expect it to rise to by 2030 ?

I think the last estimate I read was not that much higher than current peak demand, however there would be a very large rise in what is currently off peak. EVs charging overnight, ASHPs running during the middle of the day when they are most efficient, to heat water in a storage tank. The issue is likely to be total generation capacity rather than peak, with demand sculpted by ToU tariffs for everyone. I would estimate that we will likely need to double current generation capacity, so likely build around another 30 Hinkley Point C power stations. 

Lastonestanding

MouldyOldDough said:

Peak demand of UK is around 170GW (2020)  - What do you expect it to rise to by 2030 ?

Overall UK electricity consumption from fossil fuels has fallen in recent years.
That could be because of solar/wind or it could be because many things, such as LED lighting, is becoming more efficient.

So it's likely to continue to fall, not rise 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/322874/electricity-consumption-from-all-electricity-suppliers-in-the-united-kingdom/

MouldyOldDough

MattMattMattUK said:

MouldyOldDough said:

MattMattMattUK said:

MouldyOldDough said:

QrizB said:

MouldyOldDough said:

markin said:

Uk are competing for the 30% from norway and for the lng. Now if the energy companies had got 2 year contracts when it was still cheap we would all be good.

But we have our own supply 

Only 50% of the gas used in the UK comes from domestic spources, the other 50% is imported.

So the UK is not even self sufficient in domestic supplies as it stands 

We have not been for some time, I think around two decades now.

MouldyOldDough said:
with Gas boilers being banned from 2025 on new properties - how many more GW of electrical power are going to be required to heat homes and that's wthout all the extra electrical power required by the EVs that are going to be required due to the increasing cost of petrol..

We have installed capacity of around 76GW, however we are due to lose about 8GW of that over the next two years (coal and nuclear plants being shut down). Gas boilers are not being banned, the installation of them in new properties is being banned which is somewhat different. New builds will be built with good insulation and heat pumps, older buildings will still be allowed boilers, with the potential solution being insulation and heat pumps, or insulation. That being said we will need greater generation capacity going forward even with increasingly efficient technology, this will come from a combination of new nuclear and renewables. Due to the generation patterns of renewables we will also need large amounts of storage and also to build over capacity.

MouldyOldDough said:

I have said it before and will no doubt say it again - but things just do not add up - the UK is going to have serious energy problems in a few years

The problem is the public, they want short termism rather than long term planning, so governments keep kicking the an down the road. We will likely miss the emissions reductions targets as well as the net-zero commitment by some significant way, as well as facing issues with supply. Things add up very well, the UK will have a capacity shortage, as well as relying on fossil fuels too much for energy, it just does not add up in the way people think it will. 

But heat pumps still use a lot of electrical power and most/many houses do not have enough land for ground source heat pumps (as well as the cost - £15k-£20k)

Those are solvable problems in most cases. GSHPs are the better option where possible and the cost could come down significantly if installation was scaled up. Space for most houses with an outside area can be managed by using a borehole for the GSHP rather than trench installation, although they are usually not an option for flats. ASHPs are less efficient, and yes both use a lot more electricity than a gas boiler, but generation capacity can and should be scaled up over time.

MouldyOldDough said:

Peak demand of UK is around 170GW (2020)  - What do you expect it to rise to by 2030 ?

I think the last estimate I read was not that much higher than current peak demand, however there would be a very large rise in what is currently off peak. EVs charging overnight, ASHPs running during the middle of the day when they are most efficient, to heat water in a storage tank. The issue is likely to be total generation capacity rather than peak, with demand sculpted by ToU tariffs for everyone. I would estimate that we will likely need to double current generation capacity, so likely build around another 30 Hinkley Point C power stations. 

I think by "peak demand" they mean MAXIMUM demand as opposed to time of day being brought in to it

Also I see that you have not even mentioned Solar or Wind generated power  - because this again would take considerable resources and time to solve as well as being reliant on weather conditions - plus the amount of power generated by either of these methods would be insignificant vs requirement.

Another 30 Hinkley points - cost £T's and time - decades ?

MattMattMattUK

MouldyOldDough said:

MattMattMattUK said:

MouldyOldDough said:

MattMattMattUK said:

MouldyOldDough said:

QrizB said:

MouldyOldDough said:

markin said:

Uk are competing for the 30% from norway and for the lng. Now if the energy companies had got 2 year contracts when it was still cheap we would all be good.

But we have our own supply 

Only 50% of the gas used in the UK comes from domestic spources, the other 50% is imported.

So the UK is not even self sufficient in domestic supplies as it stands 

We have not been for some time, I think around two decades now.

MouldyOldDough said:
with Gas boilers being banned from 2025 on new properties - how many more GW of electrical power are going to be required to heat homes and that's wthout all the extra electrical power required by the EVs that are going to be required due to the increasing cost of petrol..

We have installed capacity of around 76GW, however we are due to lose about 8GW of that over the next two years (coal and nuclear plants being shut down). Gas boilers are not being banned, the installation of them in new properties is being banned which is somewhat different. New builds will be built with good insulation and heat pumps, older buildings will still be allowed boilers, with the potential solution being insulation and heat pumps, or insulation. That being said we will need greater generation capacity going forward even with increasingly efficient technology, this will come from a combination of new nuclear and renewables. Due to the generation patterns of renewables we will also need large amounts of storage and also to build over capacity.

MouldyOldDough said:

I have said it before and will no doubt say it again - but things just do not add up - the UK is going to have serious energy problems in a few years

The problem is the public, they want short termism rather than long term planning, so governments keep kicking the an down the road. We will likely miss the emissions reductions targets as well as the net-zero commitment by some significant way, as well as facing issues with supply. Things add up very well, the UK will have a capacity shortage, as well as relying on fossil fuels too much for energy, it just does not add up in the way people think it will. 

But heat pumps still use a lot of electrical power and most/many houses do not have enough land for ground source heat pumps (as well as the cost - £15k-£20k)

Those are solvable problems in most cases. GSHPs are the better option where possible and the cost could come down significantly if installation was scaled up. Space for most houses with an outside area can be managed by using a borehole for the GSHP rather than trench installation, although they are usually not an option for flats. ASHPs are less efficient, and yes both use a lot more electricity than a gas boiler, but generation capacity can and should be scaled up over time.

MouldyOldDough said:

Peak demand of UK is around 170GW (2020)  - What do you expect it to rise to by 2030 ?

I think the last estimate I read was not that much higher than current peak demand, however there would be a very large rise in what is currently off peak. EVs charging overnight, ASHPs running during the middle of the day when they are most efficient, to heat water in a storage tank. The issue is likely to be total generation capacity rather than peak, with demand sculpted by ToU tariffs for everyone. I would estimate that we will likely need to double current generation capacity, so likely build around another 30 Hinkley Point C power stations. 

I think by "peak demand" they mean MAXIMUM demand as opposed to time being brought in to it

The probably do, but peak/maximum is normally fairly short lived and could be managed by storage solutions. The old peak of the end of Coronation Street and Eastenders with the kettles being turned on used to exceed the entire generation capacity in the UK by about 20%, but only for a few minutes, which is why we have that water pumping station in Wales and a few other places. The future peak is likely to be longer and require more storage, but I think more and more homes will move to local storage and ToU will become very powerful in sculpting demand. 

MouldyOldDough said:

Also I see that you have not even mentioned Solar or Wind generated power  - because this again would take considerable resources and time to solve as well as being reliant on weather conditions - plus the amount of power generated by either of these methods would be insignificant vs requirement.

I think that they do play a part, but the only real option for the backbone is nuclear, it also has the benefit that if built in the right way it can be used to generate hydrogen during off-peak demand times, although that would require a bit of foresight. Renewables present a storage issue so I think that they play a part, but cannot be the bulk.

MouldyOldDough said:

Another 30 Hinkley points - cost £T's and time - decades ?

The cost would be in the £300-450 billion range depending on economies of scale and financing model, with some of the RR SMRs we could see that cost come down. If properly planned as a rolling project build time per site (two reactors per site) would be initially in the 8-10 years point from breaking ground, down to 4-6 years once the program was up and running. All sites could be completed within 15 years if we started this year. To put those costs in perspective that is roughly what the government spent on the Covid response, about four times what they have currently spend on mitigating the impact of energy rises (including the Winter 2022 support), about four years Universal Credit payments, or three HS2s (the first of which was a waste of money). With the plants expected to last 60-90 years the actual cost would be very low and could be split over half of that period. Even with the borrowing costs added to bills the cost per kWh could still be lower than todays costs. 

MouldyOldDough

Lastonestanding said:

MouldyOldDough said:

Peak demand of UK is around 170GW (2020)  - What do you expect it to rise to by 2030 ?

Overall UK electricity consumption from fossil fuels has fallen in recent years.
That could be because of solar/wind or it could be because many things, such as LED lighting, is becoming more efficient.

So it's likely to continue to fall, not rise 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/322874/electricity-consumption-from-all-electricity-suppliers-in-the-united-kingdom/

What about the addition of millions of EV's ?

Consumption average of 250kWh per month (10k miles per annum) - 3MWh/annum

Doesn't matter what time of day they will be charged

estimate 10million EVs by 2030 - Work it out for yourself !

30TWh ???

michaels

MouldyOldDough said:

MattMattMattUK said:

MouldyOldDough said:

QrizB said:

MouldyOldDough said:

markin said:

Uk are competing for the 30% from norway and for the lng. Now if the energy companies had got 2 year contracts when it was still cheap we would all be good.

But we have our own supply 

Only 50% of the gas used in the UK comes from domestic spources, the other 50% is imported.

So the UK is not even self sufficient in domestic supplies as it stands 

We have not been for some time, I think around two decades now.

MouldyOldDough said:
with Gas boilers being banned from 2025 on new properties - how many more GW of electrical power are going to be required to heat homes and that's wthout all the extra electrical power required by the EVs that are going to be required due to the increasing cost of petrol..

We have installed capacity of around 76GW, however we are due to lose about 8GW of that over the next two years (coal and nuclear plants being shut down). Gas boilers are not being banned, the installation of them in new properties is being banned which is somewhat different. New builds will be built with good insulation and heat pumps, older buildings will still be allowed boilers, with the potential solution being insulation and heat pumps, or insulation. That being said we will need greater generation capacity going forward even with increasingly efficient technology, this will come from a combination of new nuclear and renewables. Due to the generation patterns of renewables we will also need large amounts of storage and also to build over capacity.

MouldyOldDough said:

I have said it before and will no doubt say it again - but things just do not add up - the UK is going to have serious energy problems in a few years

The problem is the public, they want short termism rather than long term planning, so governments keep kicking the an down the road. We will likely miss the emissions reductions targets as well as the net-zero commitment by some significant way, as well as facing issues with supply. Things add up very well, the UK will have a capacity shortage, as well as relying on fossil fuels too much for energy, it just does not add up in the way people think it will. 

But heat pumps still use a lot of electrical power and most/many houses do not have enough land for ground source heat pumps (as well as the cost - £15k-£20k)

Peak demand of UK is around 170GW (2020)  - What do you expect it to rise to by 2030 ?

I thought peak UK demand was 40GW or does your number include Gas as well as electricity?

michaels

MouldyOldDough said:

Also the "green" reasons /excuses are a waste of time

Do people believe that if we in the UK cut back 10% on greenhouse gases - it will  have any effect at all on climate change ?

Of course it won't - China and India are still building new coal fired power stations

Why should the UK always be the one who gets stung by the ineptitude of others ?

That's my daily whinge - sorry

 

I agree, I used to take my litter home and bin it but really what difference does my little bit of litter make when everybody else still litters so I have decided to just drop it wherever I am.