How much longer will this bear market go on for?

billy2shots

Alistair31 said:

Wild reversal

The S&P is normally an index that is followed closely due to the level of holding in a lot of ETFs and funds. 

I think 3500 was a huge trigger point for a lot of money being invested there and momentum just carried on building and spreading. 

3500 was my intended investment figure but by the time I moved some cash around I had missed the boat. 

It will be interesting to see if we break that figure again this year or indeed this bear market. 

2022 bottom?

Takedap

aesthetic said:

Type_45 said:

FTSE 100 just opened the day by recording its lowest number of 2022. Could be a long day.

Why are you like this?

Because it's getting attention?

hallmark

Interestingly (and perhaps non-intuitively although it makes perfect sense when you think about it) more large single-day gains occur during bear markets than bull runs.  Bear rallies in the region of 10% are extremely common in a long bear market.

Personally I can't see the markets improving whilst the Fed is on it's current course.  I don't think it will take much for them to change their tune though.

aesthetic

Takedap said:

aesthetic said:

Type_45 said:

FTSE 100 just opened the day by recording its lowest number of 2022. Could be a long day.

Why are you like this?

Because it's getting attention?

Agreed. See my previous comments.

aesthetic said:

Type_45 said:

One wonders what the glossary term would be for someone who's down 10%-30% YTD suggesting that another investor doesn't know what they're doing despite the other investor being in positive territory YTD.

One wonders why such an expert and veteran investor like yourself feels the need to gloat about your successes on a relatively insignificant corner of the internet.

The glossary term for that is insecure and lonely.

Unless of course you're just making it all up. In which case, the glossary term for that is also insecure and lonely.

Type_45

hallmark said:

Interestingly (and perhaps non-intuitively although it makes perfect sense when you think about it) more large single-day gains occur during bear markets than bull runs.  Bear rallies in the region of 10% are extremely common in a long bear market.

Personally I can't see the markets improving whilst the Fed is on it's current course.  I don't think it will take much for them to change their tune though.

Agreed regarding the bear market rallies. A drowning market will often come up for air. Ferociously sometimes. Sucking in money from the sidelines. Just like the poster above who was about to do that very thing.

These markets are treacherous. They will hurt bulls and bears alike. 

Higher than expected CPI, coupled with markets that just don't get what's happening in the world, will mean that the Fed now has carte blanch to raise rates ever higher. 

The Fed will eventually pivot just as the BoE did. But they'll only do so when something breaks. Be that the bond market or the realisation that the recession is a particularly bad one. 

Sadly, when the recession does become undeniable, these rate hikes will be slamming into the weakened economy 6-9 months after they were implemented as the effect of rate rises is always delayed by that time frame. And there won't be anything anyone can do about that damage down the line.

GazzaBloom

hallmark said:

Interestingly (and perhaps non-intuitively although it makes perfect sense when you think about it) more large single-day gains occur during bear markets than bull runs.  Bear rallies in the region of 10% are extremely common in a long bear market.

Personally I can't see the markets improving whilst the Fed is on it's current course.  I don't think it will take much for them to change their tune though.

I agree, I think we may not have seen the bottom and this could go on until the market sees the Fed easing up 6-9 months ahead.

The US PMI is suggesting that manufacturing has already slowed down and inventories are building up so discounted prices will need to follow to clear the stocks out, that will help bring inflation down and then the Fed will ease up.

The problem is that it's a slow moving tanker and the Fed react to the data on what's already happened which takes a while to come through so they turn the wheel some time after it's already happened.

A lit like a Mexican wave takes a while to do a lap of a stadium. I do think once the market sees some certainly in the road ahead it will be "risk on" in a big way and gains will be fast and strong.

But...that's just my armchair guessing and I have no real idea what or when anything will happen, so as data and history has shown, keep invested in the market and keep buying monthly is my chosen path.

Type_45

GazzaBloom said:

hallmark said:

Interestingly (and perhaps non-intuitively although it makes perfect sense when you think about it) more large single-day gains occur during bear markets than bull runs.  Bear rallies in the region of 10% are extremely common in a long bear market.

Personally I can't see the markets improving whilst the Fed is on it's current course.  I don't think it will take much for them to change their tune though.

I agree, I think we may not have seen the bottom and this could go on until the market sees the Fed easing up 6-9 months ahead.

The US PMI is suggesting that manufacturing has already slowed down and inventories are building up so discounted prices will need to follow to clear the stocks out, that will help bring inflation down and then the Fed will ease up.

The problem is that it's a slow moving tanker and the Fed react to the data on what's already happened which takes a while to come through so they turn the wheel some time after it's already happened.

A lit like a Mexican wave takes a while to do a lap of a stadium. I do think once the market sees some certainly in the road ahead it will be "risk on" in a big way and gains will be fast and strong.

But...that's just my armchair guessing and I have no real idea what or when anything will happen, so as data and history has shown, keep invested in the market and keep buying monthly is my chosen path.

The market is already risk on in a big way.

But once the Fed pivots there will be a melt up. Including in gold and silver.

Alistair31

Kwasi has flown home early to save us. How reassuring. 

GazzaBloom

I wish there was a LOL button 

InvesterJones

Alistair31 said:

Kwasi has flown home early to save us. How reassuring. 

We'll see if anything changes - if not, it looks more like he was just fed up of being criticised by the world's economic leaders and didn't want to hear any more