EV Discussion thread

JKenH

Used car prices drop 1.2 per cent in November as electric car prices plummet

Martin said the Model 3 had actually fallen 16 per cent in the last three months – that equates to around £7,000.

Electric cars make up five of the worst performing used cars in November when it comes to the biggest price drops.

https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/used-car-prices-drop-1-2-per-cent-in-november-as-electric-car-prices-plummet/275274

Used electric cars are still pricier than a couple of years ago and this fall is probably just an adjustment back from some silly prices we have been seeing. 

JKenH

shinytop said:

JKenH said:

Petriix said:

I get what you're saying: people might pay more for their domestic usage on Go; if they didn't bother to load-shift into the off-peak window. However, you seem to be presenting that as an automatic down-side whereas I see it as an opportunity to save money. The more effort you put in, the more you save!

It turns out it's closer to 30% required to break even at current Go prices in my region because the latest peak rate is 44.45p, but my point still stands. As ever with such things, rather than making a blanket assumption that people will be worse (or better) off, it pays to do a reasonable calculation based on actual (and potential) usage.

I appreciate that not everyone has access to precise data. Because I can access both the Octopus and Myenergi APIs I have a uniquely detailed analysis of my own usage and can see exactly how much peak/off-peak/solar energy is going into the house and the car. Being on Go has saved me hundreds of pounds vs being on the standard rate and a significant chunk of that is my home usage.

You're right that I've used the '5p per kWh' line and even '1.25p per mile' which are both true for me, and unobtainable for new EV owners. But I tend to qualify it now with 'and at current prices it's more like 3p per mile'; and those figures do include charging losses.

OK, we both understand where the other is coming from so I am happy to park our discussion here. 

I'm reasonably well informed about electricity prices and had moved from traditional E7 because the higher peak rate made it more expensive for my use pattern.  However, based on the limited info on the Octopus rates gleaned from these boards, I genuinely didn't realise they also had more expensive peak rates. So this discussion has been quite useful for me.  As a heavy peak user (ASHP) it has pushed an EV further away from being financially viable for me.

TBH I hadn’t realised just how high Octopus Go peak rates are in some regions until @Petrix pointed it out. I typed in a London postcode and saw a figure over 44p/kWh. I was not trying to put people off electric cars, just pointing out the real cost of the off peak rate for some users. It was only doing this exercise that made me stop and ask myself if Octopus Go was really working for me, now I no longer have an EV. Obviously as long as I am on 13.3/5p (until March) there is no point in changing. 

I do intend going back to an EV at some stage (irrespective of policy measures that would force me to do so anyway eventually) but I quite like the idea of a small battery runabout keeping my Golf for longer journeys. If only I could convince my wife that was the way to go. A one year old Fiat 500e though still probably  costs £10k more than the equivalent petrol car so maybe not yet.

I still think there is environmental merit in this approach compared to driving a big battery EV everywhere. In fact the new Euro7 regulations on non combustion emissions (eg tyre wear) may prove a headache for manufacturers of the 2+ ton behemoths that seem so popular in the EV market. 

michaels

Petriix said:

I get what you're saying: people might pay more for their domestic usage on Go; if they didn't bother to load-shift into the off-peak window. However, you seem to be presenting that as an automatic down-side whereas I see it as an opportunity to save money. The more effort you put in, the more you save!

It turns out it's closer to 30% required to break even at current Go prices in my region because the latest peak rate is 44.45p, but my point still stands. As ever with such things, rather than making a blanket assumption that people will be worse (or better) off, it pays to do a reasonable calculation based on actual (and potential) usage.

I appreciate that not everyone has access to precise data. Because I can access both the Octopus and Myenergi APIs I have a uniquely detailed analysis of my own usage and can see exactly how much peak/off-peak/solar energy is going into the house and the car. Being on Go has saved me hundreds of pounds vs being on the standard rate and a significant chunk of that is my home usage.

You're right that I've used the '5p per kWh' line and even '1.25p per mile' which are both true for me, and unobtainable for new EV owners. But I tend to qualify it now with 'and at current prices it's more like 3p per mile'; and those figures do include charging losses.

If you have a smart meter you should be able to download 30 min usage data from here. 

n3rgy data - accessing smart energy data

I just did so for November so can tell you my average unit rate paid for import was 8.6p including VAT although I also used 109kwh of my 112kwh solar production which was 'free' as I am on a deemed export.  Not being on Octopus my best available SEG export rate would only have been about 5p max so own use made sense.

JKenH

The Electric Vehicle Ecosystem report.

This report from September somehow seems to have flown under the radar. It’s overall very positive but highlights concerns over charging.

For every public charging point in the UK, there are 15 electric cars vying for its use. This 15:1 ratio may not seem like a lot, but it has tripled from 5:1 since 2019, and EV drivers are reporting an increase in queueing.

The government hopes to have 300,000 public chargepoints in the ground by 2030. But even if we manage to hit this goal, this ratio would grow to 54:1 if just half of the population are driving a BEV by that time.

Demand is also outstripping supply for the highly sought after rapid devices, which can fully charge a car in about an hour. There are 80 cars now chasing every speedy device, a marked increase on the 32:1 ratio seen in 2019.

When it comes to queuing, one in five (20%) are fortunate enough to live in such a well-served area that they rarely (16%) or never (4%) have to queue.  Nevertheless almost a third (31%) of all BEV and PHEV drivers say they frequently have to queue for a charger, while a further third (34%) say they occasionally have to. 

https://www.novunavehiclesolutions.co.uk/media/eojek5ys/eve-report-final-version.pdf

JKenH

Copied from the EV news thread as suggested

JKenH

EricMears said:

» show previous quotes

"vying for its use." is NOT defined !  It makes it sound as though there are actually 15 cars queued up at every charger whereas most of those potential users probably charged their car fully last night and may not need to charge today. 

Semantics. More interestingly are you happy with the direction of travel? Wouldn’t you prefer it if the ratio was the same as in 2019? Obviously, the more chargers there are, the higher the ratio can go but the roll out of chargers is slipping too far behind. That, and the percentage that are out of service, is what drove me back to petrol. Motorway charging is a disgrace and the answer is not avoid motorways as you previously have suggested but install more chargers.

Pretending the charging situation is ok will not help EV roll out. Strange this seems to be a line quite often adopted by the groups who are promoting EVs, witness this comment from campaign group Transport and Environment, earlier this year

The growth of the electric vehicle (EV) fleet is being mirrored by the growth of charge point installation rates, T&E says. 7,600 public chargers were installed in the last year. Although critics claim that the current network is not sufficient, the analysis shows that the existing public network has enough charge points for the number of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) currently on the roads in the UK. As long as the installation rates continue at pace, the country will be more than ready for higher targets to be adopted in the UK’s proposed Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate.

http://https//www.transportenvironment.org/discover/workplace-charging-network-doubles-availability-of-uk-public-charge-points-new-study-finds/

It astounds me how many EV enthusiasts (perhaps because they have home chargers and rarely use public charging) try and shoot down any criticism of the charging network as though it casts EVs in a poor light. Maybe it would be better to acknowledge the criticism is valid and push for improvement. 

Northern Lincolnshire. 7.8 kWp system, (4.2 kw west facing panels , 3.6 kw east facing), Solis inverters, Solar IBoost water heater, Mitsubishi SRK35ZS-S and SRK20ZS-S Wall Mounted Inverter Heat Pumps, ex Nissan Leaf owner)

JKenH

Company cars and EVs drive November market bounceback

• Plug-ins account for more than one in four (27.7%) new registrations as battery electric vehicles (BEVs) take their largest monthly share of the new car market in 2022.

https://www.smmt.co.uk/2022/12/company-cars-and-evs-drive-november-market-bounceback/

I had been expecting someone else to post the SMMT figures but here goes.

Plug-ins overall are roughly where they were last year, just as in October. Model Y deliveries were very good for November putting it in P2 with Tesla almost doubling their November 2021 performance. 

EricMears

JKenH said:

EricMears said:

» show previous quotes

"vying for its use." is NOT defined !  It makes it sound as though there are actually 15 cars queued up at every charger whereas most of those potential users probably charged their car fully last night and may not need to charge today. 

Semantics. More interestingly are you happy with the direction of travel? Wouldn’t you prefer it if the ratio was the same as in 2019? 

......

It astounds me how many EV enthusiasts (perhaps because they have home chargers and rarely use public charging) try and shoot down any criticism of the charging network as though it casts EVs in a poor light. Maybe it would be better to acknowledge the criticism is valid and push for improvement. 

Northern Lincolnshire. 7.8 kWp system, (4.2 kw west facing panels , 3.6 kw east facing), Solis inverters, Solar IBoost water heater, Mitsubishi SRK35ZS-S and SRK20ZS-S Wall Mounted Inverter Heat Pumps, ex Nissan Leaf owner)

Semantics is the branch of linguistics and logic concerned with meaning. Using a term without defining what it means is rather pointless !

Of course I'd like to see more rapid chargers available but it would be dishonest to suggest that every existing one has a tailback of would-be users.  

JKenH

JKenH said:

Company cars and EVs drive November market bounceback

• Plug-ins account for more than one in four (27.7%) new registrations as battery electric vehicles (BEVs) take their largest monthly share of the new car market in 2022.

https://www.smmt.co.uk/2022/12/company-cars-and-evs-drive-november-market-bounceback/

I had been expecting someone else to post the SMMT figures but here goes.

Plug-ins overall are roughly where they were last year, just as in October. Model Y deliveries were very good for November putting it in P2 with Tesla almost doubling their November 2021 performance. 

re the above 

It is interesting to contrast the bullish view on EVs from Mike Hawes of SMMT with that of Ian Plummer of AutoTrader both reported in the Guardian

Mike Hawes, the society’s chief executive, said: “Recovery for Britain’s new car market is back within our grasp, energised by electrified vehicles and the sector’s resilience in the face of supply and economic challenges.”

Dealers warned that the cost of living crisis could be slowing the uptake of cleaner vehicles. Ian Plummer, the commercial director of Auto Trader, said: “Even though sales of electric cars have jumped more than a third in the past year, there are big question marks over how long this will last. Our data shows the cost of living crisis and high electricity prices are turning people away from EVs.”

He said Auto Trader’s figures showed battery EVs accounted for only 19% of its retailers’ sales leads in November “compared with more than a quarter in June”.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/dec/05/uk-new-car-sales-rise-as-industry-leaders-say-recovery-is-within-grasp

michaels

What is going to be interesting is what demand there is in the second hand market for EVs once supply increases.

Broad generalisation but I suspect that most new (premium eg EV segment) buyers have off street parking whereas a higher proportion of second hand car buyers only have on street parking where electricity prices are much higher.  Congestion/pollution charge zones will obviously help drive EV demand in the SH market but the biggest one in London is going to lose the exemption soon.

Is it generally manufacturers who are at risk re the value of returning leases?