EV Discussion thread

Martyn1981

CKhalvashi said:

To solve the issue of filling up, about 3 minutes including payment.

https://youtu.be/kkFGvkEJ0pM?si=w6djDwaChdkk3XAT

36.01l was inserted into the car at a Tesco. Other supermarkets are available. I will remove the video later.

Cool. Thought I'd play a few days ago. Stopped car, facing house (nose in towards charger and external socket), popped boot on the screen, walked to back of car, pressed the charge flap. As flap opened, I picked up granny cable and inserted nozzle in car, took rest of cable, pressed to close boot, and walked down the car, plugging in to socket. Opened Tesla app on phone and pressed 'stop charging'.* Took 45s ..... and no need to drive to petrol station.

*Bit later Octopus took over, giving me a charge schedule from 4.30pm to 5pm and 6pm to 11am - I put the A2A on cheap rate.

JKenH

Positive progress by EVs, particularly PHEVs in SMMT’s February new car registration data. February is traditionally a poor month for private sales so fleet sales accounted for 63% of registrations (compared to 55% last year) which may in part account for the increase in BEV proportion of sales. Just 8.3% of private purchases YTD are BEVs. Tesla sales are up by two thirds y-o-y which suggests the delivery bumps are being evened out. 

https://www.smmt.co.uk/2024/03/new-car-market-records-best-february-for-20-years/

CKhalvashi

Martyn1981 said:

CKhalvashi said:

To solve the issue of filling up, about 3 minutes including payment.

https://youtu.be/kkFGvkEJ0pM?si=w6djDwaChdkk3XAT

36.01l was inserted into the car at a Tesco. Other supermarkets are available. I will remove the video later.

Cool. Thought I'd play a few days ago. Stopped car, facing house (nose in towards charger and external socket), popped boot on the screen, walked to back of car, pressed the charge flap. As flap opened, I picked up granny cable and inserted nozzle in car, took rest of cable, pressed to close boot, and walked down the car, plugging in to socket. Opened Tesla app on phone and pressed 'stop charging'.* Took 45s ..... and no need to drive to petrol station.

*Bit later Octopus took over, giving me a charge schedule from 4.30pm to 5pm and 6pm to 11am - I put the A2A on cheap rate.

I can do the Ioniq (or Enyaq) if you want. It's probably a bit quicker (on a tethered cable that isn't thrown around, it lives in a box under the charger.

The 3 minute mark was quicker than I thought it'd be, but I equally wasn't planning to film myself putting petrol in a car for fun today

I will add (as you can see) that I had cards ready l, which may add some extra time for some.

Martyn1981

CKhalvashi said:

Martyn1981 said:

CKhalvashi said:

To solve the issue of filling up, about 3 minutes including payment.

https://youtu.be/kkFGvkEJ0pM?si=w6djDwaChdkk3XAT

36.01l was inserted into the car at a Tesco. Other supermarkets are available. I will remove the video later.

Cool. Thought I'd play a few days ago. Stopped car, facing house (nose in towards charger and external socket), popped boot on the screen, walked to back of car, pressed the charge flap. As flap opened, I picked up granny cable and inserted nozzle in car, took rest of cable, pressed to close boot, and walked down the car, plugging in to socket. Opened Tesla app on phone and pressed 'stop charging'.* Took 45s ..... and no need to drive to petrol station.

*Bit later Octopus took over, giving me a charge schedule from 4.30pm to 5pm and 6pm to 11am - I put the A2A on cheap rate.

I can do the Ioniq (or Enyaq) if you want. It's probably a bit quicker (on a tethered cable that isn't thrown around, it lives in a box under the charger.

The 3 minute mark was quicker than I thought it'd be, but I equally wasn't planning to film myself putting petrol in a car for fun today

I will add (as you can see) that I had cards ready l, which may add some extra time for some.

Ironically, I suspect our Ioniq would take a tad longer, as we charge it using the car charger (not granny)*. So need to walk from car, to charger, then back again with uncoiled cable. For petrol/diesel, you also need to add the driving time to the pump, though if you are passing anyway, that will be quite small.

I assume that folk who can place the charge port next to the charger, say charge port at nose, or reverse up to charger, can just uncoil a single loop and plug in, so much, much faster. We can't reverse in as driver door would get stuck against wall, and steepness of drive makes opening a door and climbing out, resembles a turtle on its back trying to get up! 

*Ioniq isn't linked to Octopus, so we use the main charger (7kW), which is set to operate during the 6hr cheap rate, whereas Octopus can operate the Tesla (rather than charger) so we can lengthen the cheap rate by using the granny.

Krakkkers

https://news.sky.com/story/concerning-rise-in-insurance-costs-for-young-automatic-only-drivers-13088169

If you learn to drive in an EV do you get this kind of license? is an EV classed as an auto?

michaels

Krakkkers said:

https://news.sky.com/story/concerning-rise-in-insurance-costs-for-young-automatic-only-drivers-13088169

If you learn to drive in an EV do you get this kind of license? is an EV classed as an auto?

Do they ask whether you have an automatic only licence when buying car insurance?  If they do would two otherwise identical drivers be quoted different premiums when trying to insure the same automatic car?

Or is this just an artefact of the difference in value/performance/insurance rating between the average automatic car and the average manual car driven by a new driver?

Edit:  I suspect proportionately more women and disabled people drive automatics than men / able bodied, I feel an indirect discrimination case being launched imminently....

silvercar

Krakkkers said:

https://news.sky.com/story/concerning-rise-in-insurance-costs-for-young-automatic-only-drivers-13088169

If you learn to drive in an EV do you get this kind of license? is an EV classed as an auto?

If it doesn't have a clutch it counts as an auto, for DVLA purposes.

michaels

JKenH said:

Positive progress by EVs, particularly PHEVs in SMMT’s February new car registration data. February is traditionally a poor month for private sales so fleet sales accounted for 63% of registrations (compared to 55% last year) which may in part account for the increase in BEV proportion of sales. Just 8.3% of private purchases YTD are BEVs. Tesla sales are up by two thirds y-o-y which suggests the delivery bumps are being evened out. 

https://www.smmt.co.uk/2024/03/new-car-market-records-best-february-for-20-years/

BEVs appear to be well below the 22% (is that correct?) target for this year for the market as a whole which suggests that there would not be enough permits to trade for everyone meaning that the trading credits will likely be worth pretty much the same as the £15k per vehicle fine?

Martyn1981

michaels said:

JKenH said:

Positive progress by EVs, particularly PHEVs in SMMT’s February new car registration data. February is traditionally a poor month for private sales so fleet sales accounted for 63% of registrations (compared to 55% last year) which may in part account for the increase in BEV proportion of sales. Just 8.3% of private purchases YTD are BEVs. Tesla sales are up by two thirds y-o-y which suggests the delivery bumps are being evened out. 

https://www.smmt.co.uk/2024/03/new-car-market-records-best-february-for-20-years/

BEVs appear to be well below the 22% (is that correct?) target for this year for the market as a whole which suggests that there would not be enough permits to trade for everyone meaning that the trading credits will likely be worth pretty much the same as the £15k per vehicle fine?

Yes, I think you've made a good point. Not sure my maths is correct, but assuming sales of approx 1.9m cars as per 2023, then each 1% is worth ~19k. Take off Tesla, as BEV only and ...... hmm .... not sure of anyone else, BYD is only starting, MG sells ICE too, so I'll stick at just Tesla, perhaps 50k(?), so about 2.5%.

Let's say the average total for BEV's reaches 20% across the year, and it may not, then knocking off Tesla, we have about 17.5%, so a shortfall of 4.5%, or about 85,500, with 'only' 50k credits available from Tesla. [My gut says I've missed something, or messed up the numbers a bit, by building steps on steps.]

So, sell less ICEV's, sell more BEV's (even at a loss), combination of both, buy spare credits/pay fines. They can put shortfalls against future years, but with rising targets, the companies would need a convincing argument to show they can do this.

The whole European market is going to get very interesting from a G&E perspective as this decade rolls on.

JKenH

michaels said:

JKenH said:

Positive progress by EVs, particularly PHEVs in SMMT’s February new car registration data. February is traditionally a poor month for private sales so fleet sales accounted for 63% of registrations (compared to 55% last year) which may in part account for the increase in BEV proportion of sales. Just 8.3% of private purchases YTD are BEVs. Tesla sales are up by two thirds y-o-y which suggests the delivery bumps are being evened out. 

I

https://www.smmt.co.uk/2024/03/new-car-market-records-best-february-for-20-years/

BEVs appear to be well below the 22% (is that correct?) target for this year for the market as a whole which suggests that there would not be enough permits to trade for everyone meaning that the trading credits will likely be worth pretty much the same as the £15k per vehicle fine?

That has, indeed, been suggested. Manufacturers like JLR have been buying emissions credits from Tesla for several years but how much they have paid isn’t publicised. I think Tesla have, historically, earned about $1k per car from various emissions credits schemes around the world but the penalties in the UK are much higher so one would expect much more. Just how much remains to be seen.

I came across this article which suggests they are unlikely to be close to £15k.

Early indications are that credits are being sold for significantly less than the £14,999 but there still exists a significant opportunity for EV only OEMs to gain a commercial advantage. How they use this advantage will be interesting and could potentially have a significant impact on EV pricing.

https://www.mha.co.uk/insights/the-start-of-an-ev-price-war

As the article also suggests, the penalties do give the Chinese EV manufacturers significant scope for dumping cheap cars on the UK market at even cheaper prices if they can factor credits into their margins. It will give Tesla tremendous scope to cut prices even further which will presumably substantially increase sales but how far can Tesla go with price cuts without undermining residual values and alienating fleet customers? It hasn’t worried them in the past. Could we see a £30k Model 3 by the end of the year? 

I think, from a commercial point of view, Tesla will need to bring prices down progressively to avoid a big impact on residuals. I am surprised that they haven’t started already as apparently demand in China (where the UK cars are manufactured) is down over the first two months and predictions for Q1 deliveries are being scaled back week by week which is partly responsible for the recent share price falls. The fact that they haven’t cut prices here in the UK suggests that the value of the ZEV mandate credits isn’t perhaps as high as some have speculated. 

Edit: some further thoughts : 

OEMs do have alternatives available to them in the short term such as rolling over some of the shortfall and using other emissions credits to soften the blow. The latter might be significant for some manufacturers like Toyota. Perhaps if EV sales this year do fall significantly short of the 18-19% market share anticipated there will be a rethink by the government. It is a bit of a gamble for OEMs but we have already seen HMG  back down on the boiler tax.

The other thought is to what extent will a manufacturer like Ford, VW or Toyota be prepared to give money to their competitors. If OEMs are genuinely losing money making EVs would Toyota want to bail them out by paying them £10k per car rather than paying £15k to the government. I think Toyota have already indicated they will just pay the penalties rather than try and sell EVs uncompetitively. Toyota have been stretched production wise over the last year and might just choose to sell less ICE cars and hybrids at higher margins alongside a few more BEVs. YTD Toyota sales are down by 25% to 9,307 units and BEVs  account for around 1700 units or around 18%. Toyota have therefore YTD sold around 7,607non BEVs against a quota of around 7,260 so will have to pay a penalty of £5.205m (£15k x 347) or £684 for each non BEV car sold. 

That actually seems a far lower additional cost per ICE car than I was expecting so maybe I have made a mistake.  Perhaps someone else will work the figures through and see what they come up with.