EV Discussion thread

Grumpy_chap

JKenH said:

Made me wonder how we attribute value for money with EVs? 

That is a very valid question that you ask and you make pertinent observations.

I have said before that there are better cars, some of which happen to be electric, but the Tesla is the best electric car. 
I remain of that view.

My decision and, hence I suppose my value markers, was based upon range per charge, public charging network, safety, comfort / features and price.  We have to remember that there is no "entry" level model to the Tesla range in the same way as there is for most manufacturers with less creature comforts - the upgrades in automation are all above what other manufacturers even seem to offer.

I don't think the Tesla is as well finished as some other cars.  Indeed, the seats in my wife's Fiesta are better than in the TM3.  But, my wife's Fiesta has what BMW market as "sports" seats whereas my TM3 has what BMW market as "comfort" seats.  If I was buying a BMW I would select the "sports" seats.  If Tesla offered the "sports" seats, I would have selected that.  Some brands do just have a more "premium" feel to them.

The trouble is "premium" is all about what we are conditioned to value as representing quality in sometimes inaccurate or no longer current metrics and tactile feelings.  The TM3, for example, has body panels that flex easily, for example washing the car and rubbing off bird's mess.  That does not represent historical "quality" metrics which were based around a strong and strong car representing "premium" requiring heavy body panels to achieve safety confidence - think Volvo.  We now have cars that are better engineered, safer than ever and do so with an engineered cell to protect the occupants and the residual skin is purely cosmetic and for aerodynamics.  Tesla have taken that to result in very thin body panels that flex but are then lightweight so better energy efficiency and longer range.  Being of a certain age, I still link that flexible body work with Citroens of old rather than the premium brands.  As an engineer I can understand that he Tesla is offering quality and premium in this regard, but of a different style to that which we have become accustomed to over the years.  Maybe we all need to redefine what is "premium".

We also looked at the MG4 before choosing the TM3.  The MG4 is a lot smaller (think Focus) than the TM3 (think Mondeo).  Conventionally, larger cars can claims a higher market price.  There is a certain amount of comfort and luxury that comes inherently with size and space.  On that metric, an MG4 ER close on price to a TM3 SR (both seem to have similar ranges) makes the MG look expensive.

We did test-drive the MG5, it was more suited to our needs than the MG4, but still smaller than the TM3.  The MG5 was an excellent car and we were very tempted until we found it had zero NCAP rating.  The MG4 has 5-star NCAP rating but still much smaller.  

As for the reference to speed, this is also about perception.  We did test-drive a TM3P and that was blisteringly fast.  Our TM3 is a lesser model and really feels quite slow - even pedestrian - at times.  The MG5 we test-drove felt faster to be honest.  However, outside the young drovers, do people actually care about speed if that references acceleration?  No-one wants a painfully slow car (which my previous Focus was at 90 BHP) but beyond that, one can only accelerate at the rate of the car in front.  Speed when cruising at the legal limit is the same whether in a Mini, Rolls Royce, Ferrari, MG or Tesla....

Based on my experience so far, I am confident that my next car, when it comes time to change the TM3, will be another EV.
By then, I suspect that the differential around range per charge will be a non-issue.
By then, I also suspect that the differential from access to public charging network will be a non-issue.
That does mean that Tesla would have to provide a car that meets "quality" and "premium" metrics in it's own right as just a car and that probably leaves some work to do to match the mass- and premium- legacy brands.

JKenH

silvercar said:

OH was a previous BMW and Mercedes owner. His first EV orders were Jag and Audi, both ended up being cancelled due to long and extending delivery times. He reluctantly went for a T3, now he’s converted to only wanting a Tesla! He wouldn’t drive a Hyundai or MG, purely due to brand image. 

michaels said:

I guess part of the Tesla company valuation is that it is analogous to Apple.  People who would probably previously wanted to be seen sporting a £xk Rolex or Tissot or whatever would be happy to wear a much cheaper Apple watch.  Same with Tesla vs Mercedes

Tesla like Apple inspire an unusually high degree of brand loyalty. The brands do seem to benefit from the modern trend of polarisation in society. You either love Apple or hate it and I think there is a bit (no, actually a lot) of that in Tesla. The more people knock Apple/Tesla the greater the loyalty within the tribe. (I write as an Apple fan BTW). The more bad press Tesla gets, the more loyal its fan base becomes. 

Apple and Tesla are also to a degree aspirational so there is a ripe market among new entrants to the market place with no historic ties. I may be wrong but I think Tesla has quite a high number (relatively) of first time car buyers who have often skipped the cheap used car stage of car ownership. 

Grumpy_chap

JKenH said:

Tesla like Apple inspire an unusually high degree of brand loyalty. 

Is that because of a lack of competition?

If someone has an Apple device and, perhaps, synced Apple devices, they are tied to the brand as no other manufacturer can offer Apple OS.  That seems to be very enduring for Apple and return customers.

Likewise, currently, for Tesla. An individual who chose Tesla car on the basis of range per charge and / or public charging infrastructure and that car is five years old and they are renewing will find (today) that the same metrics still apply.  That may very well not be the case in another five years.  I can't think of a case where having one Tesla device links into other Tesla devices in the same way that Apple can tie you to the brand.  The Tesla loyalty may not be as inherently enduring.

1961Nick

My wife took our TM3P on a round trip from North Lincs to Cheshire & back today - outward journey via the snake pass & the return leg along the M62. The distance travelled was 174 miles & the range consumed was 175 miles @ 4 miles/kWh*. Driving time was 3.5 hours so the average speed was a respectable 50mph.

The navigation calculated the arrival time from the outset for both legs to within 2 minutes of the actual time taken. 

*Measured at the consumer unit this morning following an overnight charge the actual consumption was 3.7 miles/kWh - a charging loss of 7.5%.

JKenH

Good news for those of us considering buying a used EV although companies are trying to prop up prices by retaining vehicles on fleets

Used EV values could collapse due to fleet 'dumping'

This absence of support for private EV buyers, most of whom can only afford to buy used, presents car makers and leasing companies with a challenge: how to manage the flow of ex-company EVs into the used car market without oversupplying it and sending carefully calculated residual values into freefall as retail buyers struggle to afford them. 

“Values are almost 7% lower than we predicted they would be three years ago and there is a genuine concern at the number of ex-fleet EVs coming onto the market, but their volumes are relatively small and, as long as retail demand remains in step, we don’t expect a crash in values to occur.” 

The British Vehicle Rental and Leasing Association agrees that its members are thinking more strategically about disposing of ex-fleet EVs. It said: “EVs are expensive, and the consequences of disposing of them en masse can be severe. 

So instead, some firms are drip-feeding cars into the market or taking them back and re-leasing them to customers attracted by their lower monthly payments.

Keeping an EV in their leasing ‘ecosystem’ also allows a company to continue to make money from it, regardless of what is happening to values.  

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/used-ev-values-could-collapse-due-fleet-dumping

JKenH

According to this report it won’t matter whether the government lifts its ban on ICE sales by 2030 as the demand will have disappeared. I’m not convinced, myself. I think sometimes these organisations exist in a bubble out of touch with the real world. With the Sun campaigning for the ban to be lifted, I’m not sure they’ve gauged public opinion correctly. 

Declining ICE demand will deliver EV switch by 2028, new research reckons

According to independent transport research organisation New AutoMotive, consumers will effectively end the sale of petrol and diesel cars in 2028/29, based on the current sales trajectory. This is ahead of the 2030 deadline after which only EVs and hybrids that can travel a “significant distance” in zero-emissions mode will be allowed.

New AutoMotive said latest data from its Electric Car Countshowed petrol car registrations shed 8 percentage points of market share in July as electric car registrations grew by 90%. This continues a long-term decline in the popularity of petrol since 2019, when they accounted for 65% of all new cars. Registrations of diesel cars have collapsed from their peak of 50% in 2016.

https://fleetworld.co.uk/declining-ice-demand-will-deliver-ev-switch-by-2028-new-research-reckons/

Edit: table from the New AutoMotive Electric Car Count website which if anything suggests EV’s share of new car sales is flatlining.

https://newautomotive.org/ecc

JKenH

Tesla is managing to find more manufacturing cost savings aimed primarily at the competition in China but will the cost cutting be a step too far for western markets?

Tesla Model 3 'Project Highland' Leaked Dashboard Image Shows More Cost-Cutting Measures

We learned that Tesla aims to slash the price of the refreshed Model 3 in China by as much as 14%, taking the price war to a whole new level. We have evidence that Tesla is taking cost-cutting measures to the extreme, eliminating many individual parts, including in the car's dashboard.

Tesla is doing everything it can to make the refreshed Model 3 perceived as new without spending much money. Not only that, but it found creative ways to slash costs and further turn the screw on its rivals.

This was rumored from the early days of the development when we saw the first prototypes testing in California. Back then, people were disappointed to learn from leaks that the Project Highland Model 3 would not feature new cameras or ultrasonic sensors. In the meantime, more cost-cutting measures have become evident. For once, the Hardware 4 computer and infotainment system dropped the discrete GPU and slashed the RAM and storage in half compared to the previous iteration. This means there's no way the Model 3 will have better features.

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/tesla-model-3-project-highland-leaked-dashboard-image-shows-more-cost-cutting-measures-219318.html

QrizB

I read somewhere a while ago that Tesla's in car IT systems were a hodgepodge of disparate technology, overcomplicated and a nightmare to maintain.

I can understand that a reduction in spec might annoy the Teslerati, but if it results in a simpler and more reliable system then it might prove to be an improvement?

Of course there's always the risk that you end up with a less capable and still horribly complex system!

JKenH

The EV plateau is coming. It's bad news for companies like Ford and Tesla.

"The spectacular growth we've seen over the last few years cannot be sustained. It's just not possible," said Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions. "The further up this growth curve we go, the harder it's going to be to get to the next level."

Shifting from early adopters, who will endure more quirks of ownership and quality issues, to more average and practical car-buyers will be the next big growing pain for the industry, analysts say. It will be nearly impossible for companies to anticipate demand over the next several years as this new cohort of EV buyers enters the market.

"There seems to be this natural resistance somewhere between 7% and 10% of market share in a given state," said iSeeCars analyst Karl Brauer. "That seems to be the cap, and then it gets much harder to grow it further."

https://www.businessinsider.com/ev-electric-car-sales-plateau-early-adopters-competition-2023-8

While I don’t agree with the % figures (suggested for the US) at which EV take up might plateau it does seem a possibility. Throughout the world there will always be enthusiasts but wide scale adoption is driven by not only financial incentives but perhaps more significantly the obstacles to ICE ownership put in place as witnessed in Norway and China. The harder ICE ownership becomes the wider the EV adoption. Penalties not incentives are the key and there is the problem for politicians. The public don’t respond significantly at the ballot box to EV incentives to the degree they react to ICE penalties as we have seen with the ULEZ revolt. We know how China does it but what puzzles me is just how Norway managed to pull it off. 

Magnitio

JKenH said:

The EV plateau is coming. It's bad news for companies like Ford and Tesla.

"The spectacular growth we've seen over the last few years cannot be sustained. It's just not possible," said Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions. "The further up this growth curve we go, the harder it's going to be to get to the next level."

Shifting from early adopters, who will endure more quirks of ownership and quality issues, to more average and practical car-buyers will be the next big growing pain for the industry, analysts say. It will be nearly impossible for companies to anticipate demand over the next several years as this new cohort of EV buyers enters the market.

"There seems to be this natural resistance somewhere between 7% and 10% of market share in a given state," said iSeeCars analyst Karl Brauer. "That seems to be the cap, and then it gets much harder to grow it further."

https://www.businessinsider.com/ev-electric-car-sales-plateau-early-adopters-competition-2023-8

While I don’t agree with the % figures (suggested for the US) at which EV take up might plateau it does seem a possibility. Throughout the world there will always be enthusiasts but wide scale adoption is driven by not only financial incentives but perhaps more significantly the obstacles to ICE ownership put in place as witnessed in Norway and China. The harder ICE ownership becomes the wider the EV adoption. Penalties not incentives are the key and there is the problem for politicians. The public don’t respond significantly at the ballot box to EV incentives to the degree they react to ICE penalties as we have seen with the ULEZ revolt. We know how China does it but what puzzles me is just how Norway managed to pull it off. 

Big carrots and sticks in Norway. See https://elbil.no/english/norwegian-ev-policy/ for details.