EV Discussion thread

Grumpy_chap

JKenH said:

“I collected my number plates this afternoon.”

Sorry, I didn’t understand this bit of the procedure. Please expand for us non Tesla owners. 

Sorry for the confusion.
Nothing to do with Tesla.
As well as the Tesla, I have acquired a DVLA Personalised Registration.
Tesla won't assign that from the outset, so the car will come with a standard plate and as soon as I receive the V5, I can swap out.

scaredofdebt

JKenH said:

Volkswagen scales back EV production

Wulff indicates demand for electric vehicles is up to 30% below originally planned production figures.

“We are experiencing strong customer reluctance in the electric vehicle sector,” he told the North West newspaper.

"The registration numbers of electric vehicles continue to be high, but what concerns us is the current dip in demand - not only at Volkswagen but across all manufacturers," said Lies.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/volkswagen-scales-back-ev-production

I ordered an MG5 on a lease about 18 months ago (took 9 months to arrive), when I worked out the running costs I was paying around 13p a unit for electricity, so if I charged at home it worked out around 3-4p a mile (I don't have a special tariff as I am a high user)

Today I am paying 32p a unit, so around 8-9p a mile, my diesel is only costing around 11-12p a mile, the savings just aren't what they were.

When diesel peaked around £2 a litre, it was costing around 16p a mile, the issue is fuel has fallen back to more or less the price it was before the Ukraine war but electricity hasn't, I am sure that is hitting demand for EVs.

Personally I wouldn't buy an EV but I am happy to lease one, it's such an immature market that depreciation is a big unknown.

I would consider second-hand if the price was good.

michaels

JKenH said:

Another report on the much discussed and disputed topic of how effective EVs are at reducing emissions. I haven’t included any quotes as when I do quote from articles on contentious topics I am accused of being selective. So if the story interests you please click on the link provided. 

High Mileage EVs Win CO2 Race, But Low Use Favors Hybrids - Report

https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2023/06/29/high-mileage-evs-win-co2-race-but-low-use-favors-hybridsreport/

Hmm.  Seems to me very few cars do very low mileage throughout their life as the lower mileage ones tend to be kept on the road longer.  I think that table shows that if vehicle lifetime mileage is above about 40k then the EV produces less lifetime CO2.

Guessing, but hat has got to be over 95% of vehicles manufactured?

JKenH

michaels said:

JKenH said:

Another report on the much discussed and disputed topic of how effective EVs are at reducing emissions. I haven’t included any quotes as when I do quote from articles on contentious topics I am accused of being selective. So if the story interests you please click on the link provided. 

High Mileage EVs Win CO2 Race, But Low Use Favors Hybrids - Report

https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2023/06/29/high-mileage-evs-win-co2-race-but-low-use-favors-hybridsreport/

Hmm.  Seems to me very few cars do very low mileage throughout their life as the lower mileage ones tend to be kept on the road longer.  I think that table shows that if vehicle lifetime mileage is above about 40k then the EV produces less lifetime CO2.

Guessing, but hat has got to be over 95% of vehicles manufactured?

I had a Google and found this.

Overall mileage has been consistently dropping year-on-year. In 2021, vehicles in Great Britain have averaged just 5,506 miles annually. This means that 57% of vehicles are consistently traveling less than 100 miles each week.
https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/car-industry-news/2023/02/27/less-than-5-of-vehicles-are-driven-over-15-000-miles-a-year

Of course the median mileage is likely to be lower as high mileage cars skew the average above the median. Hence, the 57% of vehicles consistently travelling less than 100 miles per week. Some of these will actually be doing 100 miles a week but statistically most will be doing less. 

Grumpy_chap

JKenH said:

I had a Google and found this.

Overall mileage has been consistently dropping year-on-year. In 2021, vehicles in Great Britain have averaged just 5,506 miles annually. 

I suspect the average now is far lower than it was pre-COVID.
I suspect the average now is higher than 2021 quoted as a reference year as the COVID impacts will have reduced and travel increased.
I have no data to support either suspicion.

Petriix

scaredofdebt said:

JKenH said:

Volkswagen scales back EV production

Wulff indicates demand for electric vehicles is up to 30% below originally planned production figures.

“We are experiencing strong customer reluctance in the electric vehicle sector,” he told the North West newspaper.

"The registration numbers of electric vehicles continue to be high, but what concerns us is the current dip in demand - not only at Volkswagen but across all manufacturers," said Lies.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/volkswagen-scales-back-ev-production

I ordered an MG5 on a lease about 18 months ago (took 9 months to arrive), when I worked out the running costs I was paying around 13p a unit for electricity, so if I charged at home it worked out around 3-4p a mile (I don't have a special tariff as I am a high user)

Today I am paying 32p a unit, so around 8-9p a mile, my diesel is only costing around 11-12p a mile, the savings just aren't what they were.

When diesel peaked around £2 a litre, it was costing around 16p a mile, the issue is fuel has fallen back to more or less the price it was before the Ukraine war but electricity hasn't, I am sure that is hitting demand for EVs.

Personally I wouldn't buy an EV but I am happy to lease one, it's such an immature market that depreciation is a big unknown.

I would consider second-hand if the price was good.

Why are you paying so much? One of the perks of having an EV is access to cheap electricity. Octopus Go is just 9.5p per kWh overnight. 

michaels

JKenH said:

michaels said:

JKenH said:

Another report on the much discussed and disputed topic of how effective EVs are at reducing emissions. I haven’t included any quotes as when I do quote from articles on contentious topics I am accused of being selective. So if the story interests you please click on the link provided. 

High Mileage EVs Win CO2 Race, But Low Use Favors Hybrids - Report

https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2023/06/29/high-mileage-evs-win-co2-race-but-low-use-favors-hybridsreport/

Hmm.  Seems to me very few cars do very low mileage throughout their life as the lower mileage ones tend to be kept on the road longer.  I think that table shows that if vehicle lifetime mileage is above about 40k then the EV produces less lifetime CO2.

Guessing, but hat has got to be over 95% of vehicles manufactured?

I had a Google and found this.

Overall mileage has been consistently dropping year-on-year. In 2021, vehicles in Great Britain have averaged just 5,506 miles annually. This means that 57% of vehicles are consistently traveling less than 100 miles each week.
https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/car-industry-news/2023/02/27/less-than-5-of-vehicles-are-driven-over-15-000-miles-a-year

Of course the median mileage is likely to be lower as high mileage cars skew the average above the median. Hence, the 57% of vehicles consistently travelling less than 100 miles per week. Some of these will actually be doing 100 miles a week but statistically most will be doing less. 

Google also suggests the average age of a car in the UK is 9 years old  if we assume a steady state then that means on average a car is on the road for 18 years - 18 years x 5.5k miles = 99k miles so a good lifetime CO2 saving.

Basically an EV produces less CO2 unless it drives less than 40k miles in its lifetime so if you are a low mileage, 3k or less per year, driver and you buy a car to keep for 10 years then buy an ICE, otherwise buy an EV.

JKenH

Very few drive the average 5.5k miles. To achieve that 5.5k average, for every car that drives 10k miles there could be 2 that average 3.5 miles. For every 1 car that does 20k miles there could be 7 that average 3.4 miles or 15 that average 4.5 k within which there might be one that does 2k and one that does 7k. (Edited)

I think the point of the Emissions analytics report is that some cars do above average mileage and some cars do less and the case for switching to a EV varies depending on mileage. This is the table from the Forbes article.





Emissions Analytics aren’t saying we shouldn’t drive EVs. They make it clear that EVs are the winners when it comes to high mileage cars but there is an argument that EVs are not the most efficient CO2 solution for low mileage cars. Judging from the table above, there are a significant number of vehicles that cover low mileages. In fact half the cars in the country cover less than 5k miles pa.

I think that what is often forgotten is that CO2 hangs around for a long time and for every year it is in the atmosphere longer than it needs to be we are increasing global temperatures. The 32% of motorists who are driving less than 3k miles a year would be seriously aggravating the CO2 problem by switching now to an EV now they are adding the equivalent of 24 years of driving into the atmosphere in one year. Even for those driving between 3 and 5 years it would be between 9 and 24 years before we see a CO2 benefit.

Let’s prioritise getting the high mileage drivers into EVs as soon as possible and move the low mileage drivers over as and when battery manufacture is less CO2 intensive and the grid is cleaner. It is often wealthy people who own lots of cars some of which cover very few miles. Now I am not wealthy but I bought a new Mercedes in 2015 and sold it in 2020. At its 5 year MOT it had done just 20,153 miles. The reason it was low was because I had another car (Golf) and my wife had her Picanto and we own a motorhome. (My motorhome at 6.5 years old has just passed 15k. If we replaced all of those vehicles with EVs the carbon hit would be huge and payback would take years. 

As another example I can see from MOT data that my old 2017 Golf, in the last 3 years, has covered just 10,195 miles - 3.4K a year.

A lot of people cover above average mileage and for them EVs are the best solution but those doing less than 3k or even 5k miles should maybe think twice before rushing into an EV if their objective is to cut worldwide CO2 emissions. 

silvercar

michaels said:

JKenH said:

michaels said:

JKenH said:

Another report on the much discussed and disputed topic of how effective EVs are at reducing emissions. I haven’t included any quotes as when I do quote from articles on contentious topics I am accused of being selective. So if the story interests you please click on the link provided. 

High Mileage EVs Win CO2 Race, But Low Use Favors Hybrids - Report

https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2023/06/29/high-mileage-evs-win-co2-race-but-low-use-favors-hybridsreport/

Hmm.  Seems to me very few cars do very low mileage throughout their life as the lower mileage ones tend to be kept on the road longer.  I think that table shows that if vehicle lifetime mileage is above about 40k then the EV produces less lifetime CO2.

Guessing, but hat has got to be over 95% of vehicles manufactured?

I had a Google and found this.

Overall mileage has been consistently dropping year-on-year. In 2021, vehicles in Great Britain have averaged just 5,506 miles annually. This means that 57% of vehicles are consistently traveling less than 100 miles each week.
https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/car-industry-news/2023/02/27/less-than-5-of-vehicles-are-driven-over-15-000-miles-a-year

Of course the median mileage is likely to be lower as high mileage cars skew the average above the median. Hence, the 57% of vehicles consistently travelling less than 100 miles per week. Some of these will actually be doing 100 miles a week but statistically most will be doing less. 

Google also suggests the average age of a car in the UK is 9 years old  if we assume a steady state then that means on average a car is on the road for 18 years - 18 years x 5.5k miles = 99k miles so a good lifetime CO2 saving.

Basically an EV produces less CO2 unless it drives less than 40k miles in its lifetime so if you are a low mileage, 3k or less per year, driver and you buy a car to keep for 10 years then buy an ICE, otherwise buy an EV.

Lifetime CO2 is not the total picture. I would prefer to drive along roads near schools without my car emitting asthma inducing fumes, even if my total mileage is low.

I do wonder if people will keep low mileage EVs for far longer than their ICE counterparts.

Magnitio

Another consideration is that for low mileage EV's, the constant drain from the battery is a greater percentage of overal energy usage. Depending on the car and settings, this can be quite significant.