Rate predictions 2022, 2023

biscan25

So based roughly on market indicators, I'll play the game.
December 2022 - 2%
July 2023- 2.3%
December 2024 - 2.5%
July 2024 - 2.25%
December 2024 - 1.75% I think this might prove a long term norm. 

Emailing this to myself and will check progress against the prediction!

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Type_45 said:

We will soon be seeing rate cuts.

Why don’t you back yourself and go for a 5 year fixed rate 3.45%. I would if I had your confidence.

Type_45

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Type_45 said:

We will soon be seeing rate cuts.

Why don’t you back yourself and go for a 5 year fixed rate 3.45%. I would if I had your confidence.

I pay 0.75% above the BoE base rate. And that's for life (another 15 years remaining on that deal).

So why would I fix at 3.45% for 5 years?

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Type_45 said:

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Type_45 said:

We will soon be seeing rate cuts.

Why don’t you back yourself and go for a 5 year fixed rate 3.45%. I would if I had your confidence.

I pay 0.75% above the BoE base rate. And that's for life (another 15 years remaining on that deal).

So why would I fix at 3.45% for 5 years?

I was referring to savings rates.

Type_45

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Type_45 said:

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Type_45 said:

We will soon be seeing rate cuts.

Why don’t you back yourself and go for a 5 year fixed rate 3.45%. I would if I had your confidence.

I pay 0.75% above the BoE base rate. And that's for life (another 15 years remaining on that deal).

So why would I fix at 3.45% for 5 years?

I was referring to savings rates.

Why would committing my savings to a 3.45% 5 year deal be "backing myself"?

RG2015

Type_45 said:

Thumbs_Up said:

Type_45 said:

Thumbs_Up said:

Type_45 said:

We will soon be seeing rate cuts.

Why don’t you back yourself and go for a 5 year fixed rate 3.45%. I would if I had your confidence.

I pay 0.75% above the BoE base rate. And that's for life (another 15 years remaining on that deal).

So why would I fix at 3.45% for 5 years?

I was referring to savings rates.

Why would committing my savings to a 3.45% 5 year deal be "backing myself"?

I believe the logic runs as follows.

We will soon be seeing rate cuts.
This must mean savings rates.
5 years savings rates are currently 3.45%.
Savings rates will soon fall.

Therefore a fixed rate of 3.45% will be an good option for someone who believes that we will soon be seeing savings rates fall.

I am not saying that I agree with this, merely that this could be inferred from the recent series of posts.

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Type_45 said:

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Type_45 said:

Thumbs_Up said:

Type_45 said:

We will soon be seeing rate cuts.

Why don’t you back yourself and go for a 5 year fixed rate 3.45%. I would if I had your confidence.

I pay 0.75% above the BoE base rate. And that's for life (another 15 years remaining on that deal).

So why would I fix at 3.45% for 5 years?

I was referring to savings rates.

Why would committing my savings to a 3.45% 5 year deal be "backing myself"?

Bold as brass you said “We will soon be seeing rate cuts”  I clarified  my point about savings rates.

Now you come back with “Why would committing my savings to a 3.45% 5 year deal be backing myself"

So what don’t you get? Does everyone on here want to argue with me?

Type_45

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Type_45 said:

Thumbs_Up said:

Type_45 said:

Thumbs_Up said:

Type_45 said:

We will soon be seeing rate cuts.

Why don’t you back yourself and go for a 5 year fixed rate 3.45%. I would if I had your confidence.

I pay 0.75% above the BoE base rate. And that's for life (another 15 years remaining on that deal).

So why would I fix at 3.45% for 5 years?

I was referring to savings rates.

Why would committing my savings to a 3.45% 5 year deal be "backing myself"?

Bold as brass you said “We will soon be seeing rate cuts”  I clarified  my point about savings rates.

Now you come back with “Why would committing my savings to a 3.45% 5 year deal be backing myself"

So what don’t you get? Does everyone on here want to argue with me?

Let's just start with these two points:

- You've assumed I'm a saver. I'm not.

- You've assumed I'd be "backing myself" by settling for 3.45% interest on my money when inflation is currently running at a 9 or 10 handle and is going to go higher. Why would I be happy with that? 

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Type_45 said:

Thumbs_Up said:

Type_45 said:

Thumbs_Up said:

Type_45 said:

Thumbs_Up said:

Type_45 said:

We will soon be seeing rate cuts.

Why don’t you back yourself and go for a 5 year fixed rate 3.45%. I would if I had your confidence.

I pay 0.75% above the BoE base rate. And that's for life (another 15 years remaining on that deal).

So why would I fix at 3.45% for 5 years?

I was referring to savings rates.

Why would committing my savings to a 3.45% 5 year deal be "backing myself"?

Bold as brass you said “We will soon be seeing rate cuts”  I clarified  my point about savings rates.

Now you come back with “Why would committing my savings to a 3.45% 5 year deal be backing myself"

So what don’t you get? Does everyone on here want to argue with me?

Let's just start with these two points:

- You've assumed I'm a saver. I'm not.

- You've assumed I'd be "backing myself" by settling for 3.45% interest on my money when inflation is currently running at a 9 or 10 handle and is going to go higher. Why would I be happy with that? 

I assumed you are ex royal navy, clearly not.

“You've assumed I'm a saver. I'm not”

- irrelevant, I told you I was talking about saving rates, you don’t need to argue this point.

 "You've assumed I'd be backing myself" by settling for 3.45% interest on my money when inflation is currently running at a 9 or 10 handle and is going to go higher. Why would I be happy with that?

- Ok so you haven’t got a decent wad of cash savings, happy investing (I will be assuming)

ABFG

Most of the talk about BoE policy doesn't make much sense to my engineering mind! In 'normal' times increasing interest rates will make it harder/more costly to borrow, which means there's less liquidity in the system and so inflation is tamed. But this will have the biggest impacts on discretionary spend.

Notwithstanding the temporary effect of the SDLT holiday and Covid pent up demand, this time the inflation is driven by the cost of energy, fuel and food - energy and fuel costs rippling up through the supply chain as they affect just about everything else. Rising interest rates surely can have only a marginal effect on this sort of inflation - I see no mechanism by which higher interest rates reduce the cost of electricity, in fact potentially the opposite.

This inflation is not driven by those with money driving up prices of desirable things, it's necessities being paid for by everyone of all levels of means.

The shame of it is, all the liquidity created post 2008/9 and in the pandemic could have been passed into society via more useful projects like the just approved Sizewell C, rather than via the banks. We could have had more of these in the works by now, as anyone engineering minded has been able to predict would be needed. Instead we let the bean counters insist that gas would always be cheap and we didn't need any storage or backup plans.

Tbh I find the arrogance of some bankers/economists spectacular - you can't solve energy problems via financial tinkering and fuel prices don't come down as interest rates rise! At some point 'something real' actually has to be done.

So my opinion:
2% end of 2022
2.5% end of 2023

Keep an eye on what can be tamed by interest rates, a modest rise needed, but if government borrowing gets too expensive then the investment needed to cure the problem properly can't happen.