Rate predictions 2022, 2023

ranciduk

Those days are gone - never to return 

financialbliss

Just to paint a picture of past rates and where we are now at 1.25%...

2022.

We’ve got four decision dates left in 2022: 4th August, 15th September, 3rd November and 15th December. I’m guessing we’ll have three 0.25% increases and one 0.50% increase, giving a 2022 year end base rate of 2.50%

2023.
Don't think we'll have such as an agressive round of increases in 2023 - just two I think, giving a year end base rate of 3.00%.

jaypers

A lot depends on Ukraine situation and inflation, much of which is being fuelled by energy prices (pardon the pun). Think we will hit 2.5% by the end of 2022 and my prediction is that inflation will start to wind down a little in Q1 2023. Fine balancing act then between growth and inflation. 

Swipe

Once we enter recession inflation will come down on its own and any increased interest rates will be reduced again to stimulate the economy. I really don't see them going above 2.5% as the BOE is way too dovish. They should have raised rates ages ago.

ranciduk

Yep I blame mark carney mainly!

we will raise interest rates if A and B happen

theyve happened 

ah yes but now we need C and D to happen

Ok that’s happened too

ermm…. D?

oh SHUT UP

masonic

ranciduk said:

Yep I blame mark carney mainly!

There are 9 voting members, including 4 external appointments, and not much to signal a more hawkish stance from any of them. In fact, the independents tended to lean towards lower rates for longer iirc. I distinctly remember Danny Blanchflower throughout the 2010s, although off the committee by that stage, fiercely criticising any move to increase rates. In fact he's come out again now to say this month's increase shouldn't have happened.

Descrabled

The inside knowledge from the city, as reported in The Daily Mail, expects the interest rate to reach 3% by the end of this year.

To reach this high, with only 4 occasions for increases, would possibly indicate a dramatic 0.75% change in early August.

What dose`t think?

TonyTeacake

jaypers said:

A lot depends on Ukraine situation and inflation, much of which is being fuelled by energy prices (pardon the pun). Think we will hit 2.5% by the end of 2022 and my prediction is that inflation will start to wind down a little in Q1 2023. Fine balancing act then between growth and inflation. 

I can't see inflation winding down by the end of the year, high inflation could be with us for the rest of this decade. It is already out of control and is only going one way.

If the BOE can't get inflation under control soon which I don't think they will, they will panic and be aggressive with interest rates.

RG2015

TonyTeacake said:

jaypers said:

A lot depends on Ukraine situation and inflation, much of which is being fuelled by energy prices (pardon the pun). Think we will hit 2.5% by the end of 2022 and my prediction is that inflation will start to wind down a little in Q1 2023. Fine balancing act then between growth and inflation. 

I can't see inflation winding down by the end of the year, high inflation could be with us for the rest of this decade. It is already out of control and is only going one way.

If the BOE can't get inflation under control soon which I don't think they will, they will panic and be aggressive with interest rates.

We need to bring back Mark Carnage. 

aroominyork

masonic said:

Playing devil's advocate...

2022: 2.5%

2023: 0.25%

24 December 2022

Dear Santa,

For Christmas please may I have some very long duration bonds.

Love,

masonic