Rate predictions 2022, 2023

Swipe

Descrabled said:

The inside knowledge from the city, as reported in The Daily Mail, expects the interest rate to reach 3% by the end of this year.

To reach this high, with only 4 occasions for increases, would possibly indicate a dramatic 0.75% change in early August.

What dose`t think?

Not a chance. They'd be too scared to even do 0.5%

TonyTeacake

Swipe said:

Descrabled said:

The inside knowledge from the city, as reported in The Daily Mail, expects the interest rate to reach 3% by the end of this year.

To reach this high, with only 4 occasions for increases, would possibly indicate a dramatic 0.75% change in early August.

What dose`t think?

Not a chance. They'd be too scared to even do 0.5%

You could be right the BOE may decide to be more aggressive which I do believe they will be at some point as inflation gets higher. I believe inflation will be well over 10% by Christmas and one of the biggest contributors to this will be the price hikes in October on Gas & Electric.

Come winter time we are going to see the many cracks in the economy start appearing right in front of our eyes,. If any of you have read my previous posts you know I've been talking about these over the last 6 months. This recession is going to be nasty and unfortunately many people are going to suffer. My advice to anyone is don't take any big debts on and don't stretch yourself buying luxuries you don't need.

inflationbuster

It will go up 0.5% in August. 2.5% by year end. 
3% early 2023 and fall when inflation falls to 5%.mid 2023 

Lastonestanding

There was a new article on Newsnight about Liz Truss becoming PM and her intentions to borrow more.
It stated that more borrowing could result in a need for steeper interest rate rises.

hoc

With Bailey being worse than useless and the MPC beyond slow we should eventually crawl to 3% by the end of 2023.

george4064

2.5% by year end, 3 to 4% in 2023 then gradual decrease back to 2.5% in 2024.

Type_45

We will soon be seeing rate cuts.

Alistair31

Type_45 said:

We will soon be seeing rate cuts.

Some time before October 23 would be good, mortgage renewal time. 

steveksullivan

Alistair31 said:

Type_45 said:

We will soon be seeing rate cuts.

Some time before October 23 would be good, mortgage renewal time. 

Hope fully this is just an 'off the cuff' comment - but if not - you could (should?) be locking in a renewal rate now before interest rates rise further - you can do this I believe up to 6 months before your renewal.

biscan25

steveksullivan said:

Alistair31 said:

Type_45 said:

We will soon be seeing rate cuts.

Some time before October 23 would be good, mortgage renewal time. 

Hope fully this is just an 'off the cuff' comment - but if not - you could (should?) be locking in a renewal rate now before interest rates rise further - you can do this I believe up to 6 months before your renewal.

It's not quite that simple. It's not inevitable that mortgage rates will go up. These are based on (amongst other things like supply/demand factors, competition, risk appetite) swap rates instead of the current base rate. E.g a 2 year swap currently suggests 2.77%, so 2.635% in the next year, 2.9% July 2023-2024, before coming down reasonably sharply.

For example, base rate will go up later this year, that's a given. But this is already priced into swap rates. So whether mortgage rates go up depends on whether these rises exceed or fall short of market expectations.

It's also why 5 year fixes are becoming cheaper than 2 year fixes.