Oil price movement over next 12 months or so.

lohr500

What are people's thoughts on heating oil prices over the next year or so?
After the peak a few months ago, I was hoping prices by now would drop back close to the £0.60/0.65 level at the start of the year, or thereabouts. But it hasn't happened 

From what research I could find through Google, the forecast for Brent Crude oil prices appear to be steadily increasing for the next two years.
But I have no idea if these forecasts are reliable or not.

I last filled my tank at £0.60 per litre and at that price it was cheaper to heat our hot water using the oil boiler, rather than the immersion heater on our £0.10 per kWh off peak electricity tariff.

However because of the oil price forecasts I could find, I have decided to top up our oil tank now with 1200 litres at £0.95 per litre. It now makes more sense to heat the hot water using off-peak electricity so I have switched back to the immersion heater.

Just interested to hear what others are thinking might happen to heating oil prices.    

canaldumidi

Putin will be assassinated. His succesor will stop the war, apologise and make restitutuons to the Ukrainians, and the West will again start importing gas and oil from Russia.

There'll be a glut on the market caused by the above combining with the increased output from Saudi Arabia plus the USA's relief supplies to Europe, and prices will plummet to around 30 ppl.

Thrugelmir

Saudi Arabia has no need to increase production. They'd prefer high prices. When they are employing footballers at £500k a week. They certainly do need the money. 

dunstonh

Putin will be assassinated. His succesor will stop the war, apologise and make restitutuons to the Ukrainians, and the West will again start importing gas and oil from Russia.

I think you are too optimistic.   Those behind Putin are going to need to be seen to be strong and will resist institutions and will look for a gain from it (such as officially keeping Crimea and Donbas region).  Russian officials do not think the same way as those in the West.  They will not want to be seen to lose.  

markin

Buy a second tank and stock up, also install a  barbed wire fence around them, and get a guard dog.

@ canaldumidi PM me the euro lotto numbers.

Cardew

markin said:

@ canaldumidi PM me the euro lotto numbers.

Email Boris instead and you will get accurate information and he is a Euro fan.

NedS

markin said:

Buy a second tank and stock up, also install a  barbed wire fence around them, and get a guard dog.

@ canaldumidi PM me the euro lotto numbers.

If you think you know the direction the price of oil is going to take, it would be far easier to buy an ETF (or ETC) tracking the price of crude oil, or shorting it if you think it will drop. Hold it in your ISA and your gains are tax free. Leverage it if you are REALLY sure which way the price will go. No additional storage tanks (have you seen the cost of these?), barbed wire fences or guard dogs required.

markin

NedS said:

markin said:

Buy a second tank and stock up, also install a  barbed wire fence around them, and get a guard dog.

@ canaldumidi PM me the euro lotto numbers.

If you think you know the direction the price of oil is going to take, it would be far easier to buy an ETF (or ETC) tracking the price of crude oil, or shorting it if you think it will drop. Hold it in your ISA and your gains are tax free. Leverage it if you are REALLY sure which way the price will go. No additional storage tanks (have you seen the cost of these?), barbed wire fences or guard dogs required.

An ETF is useless if you cant even get delivery like just a couple of months ago, To heat the house you need it  on hand, People that only have a 500l tank and have to refill 3 times a year don't get a choice of when to refill, £1 is actually still a good price almost matching Gas and would fix the price for a year or 2.

And the has always been theft so barbed wire fences are a good idea anyway.

NedS

markin said:

NedS said:

markin said:

Buy a second tank and stock up, also install a  barbed wire fence around them, and get a guard dog.

@ canaldumidi PM me the euro lotto numbers.

If you think you know the direction the price of oil is going to take, it would be far easier to buy an ETF (or ETC) tracking the price of crude oil, or shorting it if you think it will drop. Hold it in your ISA and your gains are tax free. Leverage it if you are REALLY sure which way the price will go. No additional storage tanks (have you seen the cost of these?), barbed wire fences or guard dogs required.

An ETF is useless if you cant even get delivery like just a couple of months ago, To heat the house you need it  on hand, People that only have a 500l tank and have to refill 3 times a year don't get a choice of when to refill, £1 is actually still a good price almost matching Gas and would fix the price for a year or 2.

And the has always been theft so barbed wire fences are a good idea anyway.

Yes, I understand that as I too was needing to fill up in March when BoilerJuice were unable to quote, however my local distributor was quite happy to sell me 500L, albeit at a high price.

My point was simply that for those wanting to hedge oil prices it is far easier and cheaper to 'fill up' an ETF (virtual oil tank) when prices are low and draw upon it when needed than it is to purchase a second storage tank to top up when prices are low and draw upon when needed. In an ETF, I could have easily purchased 10 years worth of 'oil' locking in an equivalent price of 20p/L back in May 2020 and be using that to fund my current usage. It's a lot harder to do that physically by purchasing storage and incurring associated risks of theft etc.