Energy news in general

bristolleedsfan

Sea_Shell said:

How accurate were Cornwall analysts in predicting the April 22 cap?

11th January  https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2022/01/martin-lewis--the-energy-price-cap-s-now-predicted-to-rise-a-hor/

"The latest evaluation period finishes this month, so predictions are firming up. Analysts Cornwall Insight's latest is the cap will rise 51%, that's £1,925/yr for someone on typical use. Other predictions range from a 46% to 56% rise"

Ultrasonic

bristolleedsfan said:

Sea_Shell said:

How accurate were Cornwall analysts in predicting the April 22 cap?

11th January  https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2022/01/martin-lewis--the-energy-price-cap-s-now-predicted-to-rise-a-hor/

"The latest evaluation period finishes this month, so predictions are firming up. Analysts Cornwall Insight's latest is the cap will rise 51%, that's £1,925/yr for someone on typical use. Other predictions range from a 46% to 56% rise"

Predictions will obviously get better the closer we get to the new cap being announced. The example above would be equivalent for an estimate of the October cap made in July.

Frankly no-one really knows right now. 

QrizB

Sea_Shell said:

How accurate were Cornwall analysts in predicting the April 22 cap?

In late September (with 7 weeks of pricing period data) they were predicting £1455:
https://www.cornwall-insight.com/press/summer-2022-price-cap-predicted-to-rise-to-1455/

Then in early October (with another three weeks) they were predicting a cap of £1660:
https://www.cornwall-insight.com/press/energy-price-cap-predicted-to-rise/

We're not yet 5 weeks into the pricing period, so this £2900 forecast should be seen in that light.

Sea_Shell

Thanks.

I understand that it's very early days and no one knows how pricing is going to pan out over the next few months.

I was questioning it, as I'm not sure what benefit there is to reporting it in the wider media at this time. (saw on BBC news earlier too)

I can see they want to warn people...but it could either scare, already scared, people or under-prepare people, depending how it goes from here!!

Even with these media reports, whatever the next cap ends up being, it's still going to be a horrible shock...as we've seen how much of a shock April is already on here....and look how much media coverage those increases had.

There are some that just can't think about next winter yet, and worrying about it won't change anything.

QrizB

Gas futures at TheICE closed at ~400p/therm for the next nine months, and tomorrow's electricity prices at Nordpool are up too - an average of 36p/kWh, evening peak 63p/kWh.

markin

Today UK wholesale gas prices hit a record £4.50 per therm - up from £2.50 yesterday morning

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10568535/UK-energy-bills-hit-3-000-year-gas-prices-spike-Russias-invasion-Ukraine.html

DiseasedBunny

Yep, well war would do that….

Effician

Breached 500p today , place your bets for 600p by end of business today.

Sea_Shell

Just reading the news this morning....I can see another turbulent week in fuel prices, for both oil, gas and leccy.

I wonder what will happen when the markets open??

Effician

Looks like we're in for over 600p/therm at open & brent crude at $128/barrel.