Energy news in general

debitcardmayhem · 15 June at 10:33AM

Gas is still going to be high so electric will be, shortage until the gas fields are back to full capacity and Europe will be filling up their reserves.

QrizB · 15 June at 11:06AM

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82035326#Comment_82035326

Nothing's going to change re. gas and electricity prices until the LNG tankers start sailing and all the empty storage tanks have been refilled.

And, assuming best-case that ships start flowing through the Strait this week, that will take us into the autumn when we'll all be trying to stock up for the winter.

While I'll be happy to be proven wrong, I'm not expecting retail gas to fall below 6p/kWh until spring, and electricity prices are still set by gas most of the time.

JoshinLeeds · 15 June at 11:37AM

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82035438#Comment_82035438

This is what it seems to suggests on news reports

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/US-Iran-Deal-Doesnt-Mean-a-Swift-Return-of-Oil-and-Gas-Flows.html

I only just fixed at 19.91p/kWh which starts in 2 weeks time.

AboutUs · 15 June at 12:21PM

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82035438#Comment_82035438

I understand other issues are crewing (inc contracts etc.) and ship state is also an issue, and insurance.

Scot_39 · 15 June at 1:44PM

Not to mention damage to pipelines, storage and refineries in last few months.

Even todays price response - a drop to c105p/therm - for UK natural gas - a drop of 7% - is a a long way of of pre crisis levels around the 70-80p mark

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas

Given we were around 5.7p retail before recent rises - arguably that - 105p level at around 50% higher - represents more like 8.6p retail - still well ahead of the 27% increase to 7.3p in July cap. Another 18% on July price - or of course more like 23% on Apr rates.

michaels · 15 June at 2:54PM

According to Google AI there is still a 40% charge of a supply crunch this winter:

1 Suez is still closed to tankers so it takes 3x as long for tankers to reach Europe which basically means the same tanker fleet can only deliver one third as much gas

2 Europe reserves are low and they are not being filled over the summer as prices are currently higher than next winter projections so storing gas = guaranteed loss, the EU has recently set a target for reserves to only fill to 80% by winter rather than the normal 90% to reflect the economics

3 The reserves can actually only be run down to about 25% rathe than empty as they need some gas to be left to generate the pressure needed for the gas to be returned from the reserve caverns.

4 New US capacity should help but this is subject to any delays in project delivery which are the norm rather than the exception for this sort of major infrastructure investment

5 The El Nino weather pattern is liable to lead to a wet and wind yearly winter in Europe followed by a blocked period form end of Jan - this blocking leads to the low wind, low sun cold high heat demand conditions that mean gas has to take up the slack.

6 The normal response to a shortage is to curtail non-consumer use (steel etc) which apart from being bad for the economy does not reflect the new usage pattern that a lot of non-consumer use is in data centres that are essential infrastructure as they support things like NHS computers etc so can not be simply turned off.

So perhaps everything will go well and we will see prices falling back to last winter levels…but don't bet on it.

Phones4Chris · 15 June at 3:37PM

If you believe Google AI without checking "reliable" sources for real facts, rather than the speculative mishmash that AI will gather together, then you'll likely believe anything 😮.

Too soon to tell, apart from the stated likely reason for problems, 40% chance is all speculation at the moment!