Energy news in general

QrizB

wine-ed said:

Can anyone help? My electricity-only fixed rate ran out at start of Nov and I didn't renew a fixed rate so I'm on the cap now and my bill has jumped from £46 to £72 per month which is hard enough. They are sending me options to go on a fixed rate at £89/mth min up to £100+/mth depending on length of contract. I'm so worried about what will happen over winter to April

The advice from MSE is to stick with the capped variable rate and not to take the fixed rates that are being offered:

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6317423/martin-lewis-the-rise-in-the-energy-price-cap-next-april-will-still-be-cheaper-than-any-fixed-deal

[Deleted User]

Gas prices have surged again amid growing tensions over Russian troops at the Ukrainian border and increased uncertainty over the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

Natural gas prices in Europe soared to €115 per megawatt hour in Europe on Monday morning, with UK prices increasing 12 per cent above 300p a therm, while US benchmark prices increased 3.77 per cent over the same window.  

Source: City AM 

[Deleted User]

wine-ed said:

I'm so worried about what will happen over winter to April, do I stick with variable rate but face my monthly rate continually increase and probably double again or do I take a fixed rate now at double what my rate was until last month? I'm on oil heating and this has doubled too. This is making me ill.

If you stick with the variable rate for electricity then, so long as you are on a capped tariff, your monthly rate for electricity should stay the same until the date of the next cap (April 2022).  So this winter you should be able to budget accordingly if you know what your  consumption is likely to be until April.  Try not to make yourself ill.  We are probably all in the same boat now or will be at some point in the next year or so.

Robin9

@Wine-ed As above the suggestions are to sit tight and see what happens next April.

In the meantime  keep on top of your meter reads and determine what your actual consumption is. 

A DD of £46  for electricity only suggests you don't use electricity for heating - what do you use ?

Ant555

This is where I dont understand  (not saying anyone is wrong, its my understanding that is off)

If wine-ed accepts a fix rate at 89/month for (guess) 18 months then thats 18 x 89 = £1602 till June 2023
If wine-ed keeps on the variable rate of 72/month and that goes up as expected in April by (guess) 40% then wine-ed might pay £72 until end april, then 40% more/month 72+28=£100month from then.  

Assuming no more rises in cap, to June 2023 =
£1602 on fix offered
£1688 on variable cap with a rise in April  (£288 to April 2021 + £1400 after until June 2023)

Is everyone betting on there being some fixed rates that are below the current variable rate being available Q1 and Q2 next year and Russia/Gazprom lowering prices and not invading Ukraine etc.
In the scenario above - apart from an exit fee, what has wine-ed got to lose with the fix offered?


Happy to be corrected with any of the above.

QrizB

Ant555 said:

Happy to be corrected with any of the above.

The Ofgem cap is going up 40% in the spring, This doesn't mean that prices necessarily are.

We're all expecting (or at least hoping) that prices will fall in the spring, and the cap will go back to being the rate you pay if you haven't bothered to switch to something cheaper. The fixes currently being offered are cheaper than today's energy prices so the energy companies are also expecting prices to fall.

Most consumers use a third to a half of their annual energy in the winter quarter, December to February, so the next couple of months will be disproportionately more expensive (wine-ed might use £400 of energy on the variable but £500 on the fix). Sticking with tyhe variable then fixing in the spring will save them that £100 difference. And by the spring, with winter behind us, the fixes on offer are likely to be cheaper than those on offer now.

Of course it's a gamble and we might get to April and find there's still nothing cheaper than the capped variable tariff ...

[Deleted User]

Robin9 said:

@Wine-ed As above the suggestions are to sit tight and see what happens next April.

In the meantime  keep on top of your meter reads and determine what your actual consumption is. 

A DD of £46  for electricity only suggests you don't use electricity for heating - what do you use ?

from his post,  Wine_ed uses oil CH.

[Deleted User]

Biggest ever Renewables auction has opened today, for such as tidal, wind and solar sources.

https://theenergyst.com/contracts-for-difference-auctions-open-ar4-bigger-than-all-the-rest/

[Deleted User]

Ant555 said:

This is where I dont understand  (not saying anyone is wrong, its my understanding that is off)

If wine-ed accepts a fix rate at 89/month for (guess) 18 months then thats 18 x 89 = £1602 till June 2023
If wine-ed keeps on the variable rate of 72/month and that goes up as expected in April by (guess) 40% then wine-ed might pay £72 until end april, then 40% more/month 72+28=£100month from then.  

Assuming no more rises in cap, to June 2023 =
£1602 on fix offered
£1688 on variable cap with a rise in April  (£288 to April 2021 + £1400 after until June 2023)

Is everyone betting on there being some fixed rates that are below the current variable rate being available Q1 and Q2 next year and Russia/Gazprom lowering prices and not invading Ukraine etc.
In the scenario above - apart from an exit fee, what has wine-ed got to lose with the fix offered?


Happy to be corrected with any of the above.

You may indeed be correct in your calculations BUT we don't really know exactly what wine-ed's usage rate currently is, what it is likely to be this for 2022 and what win-ed's electricity account balance was before their supplier jacked the DD amounts up prior to any fixed rate offer received.  Add to that list, we don't know what the new cap will be in April (and whether it will be for 3 months only instead of current 6) and we don't know if the government will reduce VAT on fuel bills or reduce the green levy etc.

My advice to wine-ed was based on their false assumption that, if the variable rate tariff is taken now, that these capped tariff rates would change before April. 

 

QrizB

Deleted_User said:

Gas prices have surged again amid growing tensions over Russian troops at the Ukrainian border and increased uncertainty over the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

Natural gas prices in Europe soared to €115 per megawatt hour in Europe on Monday morning, with UK prices increasing 12 per cent above 300p a therm, while US benchmark prices increased 3.77 per cent over the same window.  

Source: City AM 

Today's closing prices at https://www.theice.com are startling:

• Jan 22: 299p/therm (10.2p/kWh)
  
• Feb 22: 298p/therm (10.2p/kWh)
  
• Mar 22: 276p/therm (9.4p/kWh)
  
• Apr 22: 201p/therm (6.9p/kWh)
  

I hope this is a temporary blip or next year is going to be unpleasant.

For the longer term it's not looking *quite* so bad:

• Winter 22: 186p/therm (6.3p/kWh) - slightly cheaper than this winter has been so far
  
• Winter 23: 94p/therm (3.2p/kWh)
  
• Winter 24: 77p/therm (2.6p/kWh)