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  • michaels
    michaels Posts: 29,130 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Photogenic Name Dropper
    QrizB said:
    New forecast from Cornwall Insight. Campared to their forecast a fortnight ago, this is slightly higher:
    Compared to the 15th of June:
    • Q4 2023 was £1932.59, now £1978.33 (+2.4%) on the same TDCV basis.
    • Q1 2024 was £1943.87, now £2004.40 (+3.1%).
    Hmm - TDCV revised downwards - shrinkflation comes to energy pricing.

    Note these are not price forecasts, they are what the cap would be if current forward prices remain the same when we reach the cap setting window (or alternatively what the cap would be if it were hedged now rather than approx 18 weeks before as per the formula).  So basically no better or worse a guess than assuming prices will stay the same as now.  People read much to much into these numbers.
    I think....
  • markin
    markin Posts: 3,860 Forumite
    Sixth Anniversary 1,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    edited 30 June 2023 at 3:05PM
    Solar installs were big in 2022 so will account for some of the lower number.


    "So we knew it was going to be a record year for the industry, but to see the 4% Y-o-Y increase with 555 MW more installed in 2022 than 2021 [1], really highlights the uptake across the UK. If the same 4% growth is to apply in 2023, this would mean a total installed UK solar capacity of around 15 GW (14.91) by the end of this year!"
    https://www.marley.co.uk/blog/solar-adoption-in-2023




    https://www.data.gov.uk/dataset/c647e722-b691-47e9-a765-a22e24f05a04/solar-photovoltaics-deployment

    "Provisionally, as of the end of May 2023 there is a total of 15.1 GW of solar capacity in the UK across 1,334,453 installations. This is an increase of 6.4% (911 MW) since May 2022. In absolute terms, this is the highest annual increase seen since December 2017.

    During May 2023, there were 13,671 installations, accounting for 60 MW of capacity, The number of new installations this month is lower than volumes seen in the previous months of 2023; however it is still much higher than average figures seen between 2016 and 2021 and it is likely to be revised upwards next month. After a sharp drop in April 2020 due to Covid-19 lockdown measures, the number of installations recovered by the second half of 2020 and gradually exceeded pre-pandemic levels. Between the closure of RO to new entrants in 2016 and 2021, the median number of new installations was around 3,000 per month. The median over the past 12 months is over 13,000 installations per month.

    During May there were 11,242 new domestic installations, accounting for 82% of new installations. 2022 had seen nearly 112,000 domestic installations, the most in a calendar year since 2015.

    At the end of March 2023 (end Quarter 1), 52% of capacity (7,708 MW) came from ground-mounted or standalone solar installations. This includes the two operational solar farms accredited on Contracts for Difference (Charity and Triangle)."
  • wakeupalarm
    wakeupalarm Posts: 1,154 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper
    Energy bills to stay high for 15 years!

    Time to invest in those long term energy saving measures.
  • Xbigman
    Xbigman Posts: 3,915 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    Energy bills to stay high for 15 years!

    Time to invest in those long term energy saving measures.

    That article is so badly written they haven't noticed the third paragraph is the wrong way around.

    In any event, any expert predicting what will happen over that timescale is a fool. The most likely scenario when the war in Ukraine ends is that Russian gas and oil will come back onto the world market and cause an energy price crash. Even if not a crash, prices will drop. The unknown is how long the war will go on.


    Darren
    Xbigman's guide to a happy life.

    Eat properly
    Sleep properly
    Save some money
  • gt94sss2
    gt94sss2 Posts: 6,124 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    A new player has stepped into the UK’s energy market. 

    Fuse Energy Supply Ltd., led by Co-Founders Alan Chang and Charles Orr, former executives at Revolut, has recently emerged with an ambition to revolutionise the UK’s energy sector. 

    The company’s core promise is to offer the “cheapest electricity tariff” in the UK.
  • nekr0mantik
    nekr0mantik Posts: 379 Forumite
    Third Anniversary 100 Posts Name Dropper
    So Octopus think energy prices will double again this Winter. Has anyone else predicated the same? 
  • So Octopus think energy prices will double again this Winter. Has anyone else predicated the same? 
    Link?     
  • nekr0mantik
    nekr0mantik Posts: 379 Forumite
    Third Anniversary 100 Posts Name Dropper
    So Octopus think energy prices will double again this Winter. Has anyone else predicated the same? 
    Link?     
    Don't have a link as I just seen quite a few people on Octopus reddit mention it a few times. 
  • So Octopus think energy prices will double again this Winter. Has anyone else predicated the same? 
    Link?     
    Don't have a link as I just seen quite a few people on Octopus reddit mention it a few times. 
    Ok. I think I will wait for the press release.
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