Energy news in general

spot1034

tghe-retford said:

Russia has finally cut off the gas from Nord Stream to Europe.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62732835

The markets from what I can tell as a layman have not reacted to this (yet). Maybe they knew this was the outcome that was always going to play out and it has been priced in.

It has been known about for several days, and you write as if it's a permanent shut down whereas the present understanding is that it will be for three days - for 'maintenance'.

I'd suggest that the market reaction will come if that understanding turns out to be wrong.

tghe-retford

spot1034 said:

tghe-retford said:

Russia has finally cut off the gas from Nord Stream to Europe.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62732835

The markets from what I can tell as a layman have not reacted to this (yet). Maybe they knew this was the outcome that was always going to play out and it has been priced in.

It has been known about for several days, and you write as if it's a permanent shut down whereas the present understanding is that it will be for three days - for 'maintenance'.

I'd suggest that the market reaction will come if that understanding turns out to be wrong.

Denying the reality of what is coming is like denying a housing development next to your house when the foundation and the walls are complete with only the roof and windows to go. Whilst convincing yourself it's merely temporary, its coming down soon and the view across the field will return as it was before.

It's good to hear of investment in energy in the news this morning but we need to face the cold, hard reality now. Russia is no longer an option for cheap, reliable and plentiful gas and we need to reduce inflation in the short term, fast-track ways of generating energy immediately and investment for the long term.

pochase

Even with the maintenance of Nord Stream the predictions are going further down.



I would never have thought I would be happy to see a unit rate of slightly over 90p.

artyboy

pochase said:

Even with the maintenance of Nord Stream the predictions are going further down.



I would never have thought I would be happy to see a unit rate of slightly over 90p.

The next acid test will be whether, after the planned 3 days maintenance, gas starts flowing again. I'm in the 'cynical' camp here 

I almost think what's needed alongside these daily updates is an equivalent to the VIX, which is effectively a measure of underlying market volatility. That way we would know how much of a pinch of salt to take each swing with - high volatility, big swing - expected. Low volatility, big swing - more of a concern...

GingerTim

Liz Truss has 'ruled out' energy rationing under her prime ministership. Good to know that she has the power (no pun intended) to bend energy supply and demand to her iron will.

savers_united

GingerTim said:

Liz Truss has 'ruled out' energy rationing under her prime ministership. Good to know that she has the power (no pun intended) to bend energy supply and demand to her iron will.

I think what Britain has got when needed is deep pockets, if LNG deliveries are being bidded for then I am sure the country will find the money to keep them docking. 

pochase

artyboy said:

pochase said:

Even with the maintenance of Nord Stream the predictions are going further down.



I would never have thought I would be happy to see a unit rate of slightly over 90p.

The next acid test will be whether, after the planned 3 days maintenance, gas starts flowing again. I'm in the 'cynical' camp here 

I almost think what's needed alongside these daily updates is an equivalent to the VIX, which is effectively a measure of underlying market volatility. That way we would know how much of a pinch of salt to take each swing with - high volatility, big swing - expected. Low volatility, big swing - more of a concern...

There is also a daily analysis that has much background information.

Welcome along to September – the final ‘summer’ month of a turbulent year.

Markets enjoyed another day of discounting yesterday to follow the weak start to the short trading week. Prices rose at the open but were quickly showing a discount to Tuesdays close despite Nord Stream 1 being offline.

Cooler temperatures seemingly cooled the market as much of the risk premium built into the market was pulled out with another 10% being removed after the previous sessions 20% putting us back to where we saw prices around two weeks ago.

Yesterday saw the TTF October contract settle at €239.91 (from €265.33) and the NBP October contract at 458.90p (from 524.42p).

Gullfaks and Troll on the unplanned outages listed this morning and so we see a flow level at 303mcm from Norway (316). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.9mcm (36.9) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (42.1). Flows on Nord Stream 1 at 0 GWh (0), expected to be fully offline now for three days. Gas storage showing at 80.43% full as per AGSI+. Germany at 84.03% (85% by 1st Oct) and Italy 82.26% (90% by 1st Oct).

This morning we see the October TTF contract at €243, UP €3 to the previous settlement.
 
A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF October €243, Winter €237 (vs €269 and €265)
Curve NBP October 459p, Winter 577p (vs 525p and 644p)
NBP spot 300p (from 320p). 

UK power prices show the UK October Baseload contract at £481 (£518) and Winter at £680 (£747). 

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $95 ($100) and EUAs are at €80 (€81). Henry Hub is at $9.07 ($9.10) and JKM is at $53.95 ($58.75).           .

michaels

savers_united said:

GingerTim said:

Liz Truss has 'ruled out' energy rationing under her prime ministership. Good to know that she has the power (no pun intended) to bend energy supply and demand to her iron will.

I think what Britain has got when needed is deep pockets, if LNG deliveries are being bidded for then I am sure the country will find the money to keep them docking. 

More than Japan, China, France and Germany?

Looks like the market does not agree with you, the pound is sharply down against the dollar and euro over the last few days.  Basically we can offer as many of our shiny £1 cons as we can mint to those who are shipping gas but that doesn't mean they will just accept them and give us gas when they are also being offered Euros and Yen.

michaels

pochase said:

artyboy said:

pochase said:

Even with the maintenance of Nord Stream the predictions are going further down.



I would never have thought I would be happy to see a unit rate of slightly over 90p.

The next acid test will be whether, after the planned 3 days maintenance, gas starts flowing again. I'm in the 'cynical' camp here 

I almost think what's needed alongside these daily updates is an equivalent to the VIX, which is effectively a measure of underlying market volatility. That way we would know how much of a pinch of salt to take each swing with - high volatility, big swing - expected. Low volatility, big swing - more of a concern...

There is also a daily analysis that has much background information.

Welcome along to September – the final ‘summer’ month of a turbulent year.

Markets enjoyed another day of discounting yesterday to follow the weak start to the short trading week. Prices rose at the open but were quickly showing a discount to Tuesdays close despite Nord Stream 1 being offline.

Cooler temperatures seemingly cooled the market as much of the risk premium built into the market was pulled out with another 10% being removed after the previous sessions 20% putting us back to where we saw prices around two weeks ago.

Yesterday saw the TTF October contract settle at €239.91 (from €265.33) and the NBP October contract at 458.90p (from 524.42p).

Gullfaks and Troll on the unplanned outages listed this morning and so we see a flow level at 303mcm from Norway (316). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.9mcm (36.9) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (42.1). Flows on Nord Stream 1 at 0 GWh (0), expected to be fully offline now for three days. Gas storage showing at 80.43% full as per AGSI+. Germany at 84.03% (85% by 1st Oct) and Italy 82.26% (90% by 1st Oct).

This morning we see the October TTF contract at €243, UP €3 to the previous settlement.
 
A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF October €243, Winter €237 (vs €269 and €265)
Curve NBP October 459p, Winter 577p (vs 525p and 644p)
NBP spot 300p (from 320p). 

UK power prices show the UK October Baseload contract at £481 (£518) and Winter at £680 (£747). 

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $95 ($100) and EUAs are at €80 (€81). Henry Hub is at $9.07 ($9.10) and JKM is at $53.95 ($58.75).           .

Anyone know what the contract sizes are so we can compare TTF at E239, NBP at 458p and Henry Hub at $9.07? Thanks

QrizB

michaels said:

Anyone know what the contract sizes are so we can compare TTF at E239, NBP at 458p and Henry Hub at $9.07? Thanks

I could be completely wrong but I think NBP is priced in therms (29.3kWh), TTF in MWh and Henry in millions of BTU (293kWh, 10 therms).