Energy Blackouts more likely!

sevenhills

Our base case view of de-rated margin for winter 2021/22 is currently 4.3 GW or 7.3%. This is slightly lower than last year, but the associated loss of load expectation (LOLE) of around 0.1 hours/year is well within the Reliability Standard of 3 hours set by Government. While we remain confident there is sufficient supply to meet peak demand, we should prepare for some tight periods during the winter. For example, this could be when plant outages are higher than expected (often experienced in the shoulder months), wind is low, or there is tightness in Europe at the same time that reduces imports. We may expect similar challenges this winter.

The above of a quote from Ofgem in July.

Since July, the risk of winter blackouts has increased after a fire affecting a key subsea cable further eroded Great Britain’s backup electricity supply cushion, already diminished by the shutdown of gas plants and nuclear reactors.

So Ofgem are warning the public that if the wind is low, there could be blackouts! Without electricity my gas central heating will not work.

What measures should/can people take, portable heaters/generators?

brewerdave

What we did when we had power outages in the 70s - 1. keep a stock of candles and matches  & 2. buy a couple of decent thick jumpers and some thermal underwear !!! Also in my case ,make sure we have plenty of logs for the solid fuel burner.

Gerry1

Now you know why smart meters are being promoted so ruthlessly !  Aficionados who though that all they did was to connect to a shiny toy and phone home with meter readings may discover sooner rather than later some of the the unpublicised features such as Load Limiting and Load Shedding that are built-in and have been used in anger in southern Africa for several years.

MWT

... and those without smart meters may wish to remember that the DNO still has the same 'off switch' as they had in the 70's ...

Verdigris

MWT said:

... and those without smart meters may wish to remember that the DNO still has the same 'off switch' as they had in the 70's ...

Indeed. The supply and distribution companies are in the business of selling energy. Why would they switch it off unless there was a strong operational need?

Gerry1

MWT said:

... and those without smart meters may wish to remember that the DNO still has the same 'off switch' as they had in the 70's ...

True, but being 'Wide Area, All or Nothing' it's much more of a blunt instrument and carries much, much higher political risks.

Effician

Fond memories of blackouts, quite enjoyed them. Might explain my love of non hook-up camping.

chris1973

Yeah well, we have put ourselves forward to become the sole Martyr for a global problem, even though we could ill afford it and all of these renewables the Jolly Green Giant has been cheerfully rolling out have left ourselves energy bereft as they don't produce a fraction of what traditional coal fired stations produced, leaving us with expensive Gas generation to make up the massive shortfall when the Sun goes in and the wind doesn't blow - which in the UK happens quite a lot.

Not sure why so many are complaining though, there is no finer way of saving the planet than reducing the time your Gas Boiler / Electric Heaters are on, or better still not running them at all, and when Energy rises to become the equivalent cost of a second mortgage every month, that is exactly what will be happening. So I guess those who have been promoting it, have now all got the 'Green Future' they have been embracing.

[Deleted User]

brewerdave said:

What we did when we had power outages in the 70s - 1. keep a stock of candles and matches  & 2. buy a couple of decent thick jumpers and some thermal underwear !!! Also in my case ,make sure we have plenty of logs for the solid fuel burner.

We had a fire for heating, we don't now, central heating. We have a freezer now, we didn't then (our freezer is good for 24 hours no power). We have computers and other devices that rely on batteries, the most we had then was a clunky lamp on a massive battery. Home internet goes down, not sure how they prioritise street cabinets but they will be off the same supplies as the lighting but with home routers off, no use anyway.
At least I can fire up the bbq to cook on.
No way going to be running candles.

Fairzo

We used to live in a cardboard box. But we were 'appy.

2Protons

Gerry1 said:

Now you know why smart meters are being promoted so ruthlessly !  Aficionados who though that all they did was to connect to a shiny toy and phone home with meter readings may discover sooner rather than later some of the the unpublicised features such as Load Limiting and Load Shedding that are built-in and have been used in anger in southern Africa for several years.

Load or KVA Limiting already existed in many countries (although I can't think of any English speaking countries) before smart meters I know in France, Italy & Spain (but I suspect may other European countries where air conditioner is common do too) had circuit breakers to stop you using more than 3 Kw at the same time unless you paid a higher standing charge https://www.french-property.com/guides/france/utilities/electricity/tariff which is why 3 KW kettles and instant electric shower are unheard of in many European countries. 

Then compared to what happened in Texas in February 2021 where there were people without electricity (and heating - 60% is electric in Texas) for days as they could not rotate the blackouts/load Shedding in some places because of how extreme the imbalance between demand and generation was. Load Limiting would have be a lot fairer & safer (street and traffic lights could have stayed on unlike when local feeders are turned off) and power could have being shared for some reduced heating if we are going to have more electrification this is a better plan than turning off local feeders for extreme weather events damage infrastructure.