How do you reckon we'll be heating our homes in years to come?

Section62

silverwhistle said:

Well, there are over a million domestic installations in the UK...

According to BEIS, as of the end of August 2021 there were a total of 1,097,935 PV installations of all types across the UK. As that figure includes commercial-scale sites, as well as installations on commercial premises (shops, factories, warehouses, agricultural etc) I'm not sure your figure of 'over a million' domestic installations can be right.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/solar-photovoltaics-deployment

silverwhistle said:

...and as I reckon they are more aware consumers than most their behaviour will have an impact.

Yes, and that is a very important point.

silverwhistle said:

You said there was no impact.

I don't think I did.

silverwhistle said:

You also went on again about things people use: again that is irrelevant in talking about cutting peak loads.

I can't follow your logic here.  If we are talking about cutting peak loads, then considering the nature of loads during the peak times is essential.  If it isn't understood what people are using and why then no meaningful analysis can be made of the potential to reduce demand (load).

Your position seems to be that PV facilitates load-shift, reducing peak demand by moving some energy use to off-peak times.

My list of things people use in peak hours (electric showers, ovens, hobs, toasters, coffee machines, kettles, lights) are examples of demand which is difficult to load-shift, because those uses have to occur at specific times in people's day.

Very few people are ever going to use plug in timers to get their coffee machine and toaster to switch on at noon to make their morning breakfast. Very few people will be able to go home from work/school to have their shower in the middle of the day. Etc.

The things people use is wholly relevant to the discussion about cutting peak demand (aka 'load on the national grid').

silverwhistle said:

Originally I mentioned people I know; perhaps I could extend that to intelligent people with commonsense and a need to keep costs down. Depends on your view of what proportion that is of the million + installations: personally I reckon it is high.

This is another key issue, along with the previous point that many/most existing PV installations will be on properties owned by consumers who are more aware than most.  You have what amounts to a self-selected cohort of people who have made a conscious decision to go solar, and whose consumption patterns will reflect their knowledge of costs, and in some cases simply a desire to be 'green' regardless of the costs.

My point was that cohort of people isn't necessarily representative of the public at large.  Not everyone prioritises economy, not everyone has a lifestyle that is compatible with loadshifting, not everyone has commonsense.

You are talking about a select group of people (primarily those you know?) - I'm talking about the whole population, with (for the purposes of this discussion) some bias towards the types of people buying new-build homes.

Another_Level

Who knows what our government will require us domestic natural gas users to do, maybe just fit a decent gas boiler in lieu of your ageing appliance when needed. Get at least 10 years of service from it.

Heat pumps are a good idea but some properties will need a new heating and hot water system, unless its already reduced heat compliant.

Natural gas will be around for 30+ years, yes it will get more and more expensive for many reasons.

Oil boilers are also on the new build ban list 

New builds gas boiler ban may well turn into a new build ban on having a connection to natural gas. Bye by gas cooking.
Ban on new builds being connected to natural gas network are usual in parts of western Europe 

Insulation insulation and more insulation, currently rentout a 1960 estate flat where new A++ rated triple glazed windows, A+ rated front door/frame and internal thermal/sound insulation being fitted to some of the walls 

Toasty 

LV_426

Another_Level said:

Who knows what our government will require us domestic natural gas users to do, maybe just fit a decent gas boiler in lieu of your ageing appliance when needed. Get at least 10 years of service from it.

Heat pumps are a good idea but some properties will need a new heating and hot water system, unless its already reduced heat compliant.

Natural gas will be around for 30+ years, yes it will get more and more expensive for many reasons.

Oil boilers are also on the new build ban list 

New builds gas boiler ban may well turn into a new build ban on having a connection to natural gas. Bye by gas cooking.
Ban on new builds being connected to natural gas network are usual in parts of western Europe 

Insulation insulation and more insulation, currently rentout a 1960 estate flat where new A++ rated triple glazed windows, A+ rated front door/frame and internal thermal/sound insulation being fitted to some of the walls 

Toasty 

You're right. What will happen is that the price of gas will become much more expensive.

My house already has cavity insulation and loft insulation (it's a bungalow). Previous owners recently replaced the windows with good double glazing, but I wondered about triple glazing, and whether that would give us a significant benefit.

Section62

Another_Level said:

New builds gas boiler ban may well turn into a new build ban on having a connection to natural gas. Bye by gas cooking.
Ban on new builds being connected to natural gas network are usual in parts of western Europe 

Even without a ban on new-build connection to the gas network, the economics of connecting properties to gas solely for cooking aren't likely to stack up for the majority of owners, developers or the gas distribution network operators.

If the savings from using gas vs electric evaporate, the only reason to want gas is a preference for gas-flame cooking.  How many people would be willing to pay a premium (and how much) to buy a new-build property which allows them to have a gas hob?

There are also health concerns about the use of non-vented gas appliances (e.g. hobs and ovens) inside the house. I think greater emphasis will be placed on this in future.

So IMV, whatever happens, the future of domestic gas cooking is pretty bleak.

coffeehound

FreeBear said:

I have space for a GSHP collector if it uses boreholes (slinkies are out of the question). However, getting a suitable drilling rig in is physically impossible unless I demolish the side extension. There is also a long term problem with the ground cooling as heat is sucked out - Anecdotal evidence suggests that efficiency drops off over a 25-30 year period. Although this can be offset a little by pumping heat back in to the ground during the summer months (a use for those PV panels ?).

Even if a suitably small drilling rig could be found, the cost of the groundworks is likely to be in the order of £30-40K.

I suppose the ideal would be a water-source HP:   Having a substantial body of water nearby like a lake, loch, pond or river would mean source temperature never falling below 4℃, and very low installation costs -- just drop a big ol' coil of pipe off the side of a boat . .

Ganga

Maybe all the people living in the northern hemisphere will move nearer to the equator  ,will not need as much heating there. 

silverwhistle

Section62 said:

I can't follow your logic here.  If we are talking about cutting peak loads, then considering the nature of loads during the peak times is essential.  If it isn't understood what people are using and why then no meaningful analysis can be made of the potential to reduce demand (load).

Your position seems to be that PV facilitates load-shift, reducing peak demand by moving some energy use to off-peak times.

My list of things people use in peak hours (electric showers, ovens, hobs, toasters, coffee machines, kettles, lights) are examples of demand which is difficult to load-shift, because those uses have to occur at specific times in people's day.

Yes, what is used is irrelevant in terms of cutting peak loads. I still use a kettle for my cuppa in peak hours (etc.) but the grid doesn't distinguish between appliances. Nor did I suggest going home during the day for a shower, now that's just you saying something silly.  But ultimately any usage during the day - I gave a couple of heavyweight examples - helps cut the peaks. It is the peaks we are talking about. Your list of things used in peak hours doesn't matter, it's what we can shift or use more efficiently. Peak loads have gone down already due to increased efficiency of appliances and particularly LED lighting.

I mentioned washing machines and dishwashers because they have water heating which is a particularly heavy power user during the heating process. If you want other ideas how people use solar more efficiently there are quite a few old threads on these boards, some of them doing things I wouldn't bother to do myself. But I do use a slow cooker, tend to batch bake when it is sunny, charge my power tool batteries and electric bike with the PV, etc.

To give you a simple example: years ago when I was in 9-5 employment (for the electricity board, as it happens) and before I had PV I'd come home and shove the washing on, cook without regard to energy usage, dishwasher after dinner. I no longer do all those things except with due consideration. If I need to use the oven I do, but my use of PV influences my decisions and has reduced my peak demand. We can argue about how many others do the same until the cows come home, but the numbers are significant and do make a difference.

Rosa_Damascena

Ganga said:

Maybe all the people living in the northern hemisphere will move nearer to the equator  ,will not need as much heating there. 

Might help with global obesity too, as food will be far scarcer.

Ganga

Rosa_Damascena said:

Ganga said:

Maybe all the people living in the northern hemisphere will move nearer to the equator  ,will not need as much heating there. 

Might help with global obesity too, as food will be far scarcer.

Yes but with our farming knowhow we MIGHT be able to produce more ,it would be funny ,half the people who live in the tropical climate want to come to the UK ,the uk population might pass them going the other way

danrv

jamesperrett said:

However this house once had a hot air heating system and the vents are still there so I wonder if some kind of heat transfer system would be a possibility?

Same here although it’s electric warm air via a central 10kw storage heater. Before getting multi split aircon installed, I looked extensively into using the ducting and vents for heating.

There’s wasn’t anything available than could be retrofitted to use this. The efficiency of any heat pump would’ve been comprised due to the uninsulated steel ducting.