How do you reckon we'll be heating our homes in years to come?

LV_426

We've got a current situation with the price of gas. And the Govt's plan is to ban gas boiler installation for new build properties from 2025.
With a goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050, I expect that use of gas in domestic heating will become considerably more expensive in the years to come.
I currently have an ageing gas boiler. I'm wondering when it comes time to replace, what to do. Will I install a new more efficient gas boiler, or choose another type of heating system. I've recently read about heat pumps (air or ground). Are these viable alternatives? Air source pumps won't be as effective in winter, when the air is colder.
All the alternatives don't appear to be as effective as a gas boiler, and may need major changes to your existing plumbing and heating system.
Plus the recommendation is that before you install such a system, make sure your house is well insulated. That could be additional work.

What do you reckon? Is it a good idea to stick with gas, or go for an alternative?

danrv

I have just had multi split aircon installed and they said that future new builds may well have ducted AC fitted.
I don’t have radiators or mains gas so this narrowed my options.

Cheapest option both for install and running would be to replace your boiler. ASHP would be expensive and the rads would need to be resized to handle the cooler water temperature.
Good investment though for a greener system.
RHI payments might be available if insulation is up to scratch but not sure if this is stopping soon or just going under a different name.
GSHP is considerably more expensive (approx £20k).

LV_426

How does ASHP work in winter (when you need it most). Surely colder air makes it less effective? 

danrv

ajfielden said:

How does ASHP work in winter (when you need it most). Surely colder air makes it less effective? 

The efficiency or COP drops in colder weather. They need to run almost constantly as it can take time for the water to get up to temperature.
It can work well with a correctly sized system. 

My aircon is also affected by outdoor temperature but the heat is direct. With a wet system, the water needs to be hotter than the required room temperature.

LV_426

danrv said:

ajfielden said:

How does ASHP work in winter (when you need it most). Surely colder air makes it less effective? 

The efficiency or COP drops in colder weather. They need to run almost constantly as it can take time for the water to get up to temperature.
It can work well with a correctly sized system. 

I guess what also bothers me about this, is that there will inevitably by a feeding frenzy of heat pump installers that pop up. Much like there was with solar panels. Especially as there's govt money in this.
How many of those installers will really know what they're doing, and how many will be opportunistic cowboys?

danrv

ajfielden said:

danrv said:

ajfielden said:

How does ASHP work in winter (when you need it most). Surely colder air makes it less effective? 

The efficiency or COP drops in colder weather. They need to run almost constantly as it can take time for the water to get up to temperature.
It can work well with a correctly sized system. 

I guess what also bothers me about this, is that there will inevitably by a feeding frenzy of heat pump installers that pop up. Much like there was with solar panels. Especially as there's govt money in this.
How many of those installers will really know what they're doing, and how many will be opportunistic cowboys?

You can usually get an idea from a survey. Just avoid adverts for companies promising this and that.
Often just a call centre somewhere.

I searched local AC companies. The first one, the survey was rather hurried and not much in the way of details given.
The second was much better with an understanding of my heating dilemma (electric warm air system). 
Recommendations from friends, people you know also a good idea.

ka7e

I guess what also bothers me about this, is that there will inevitably by a feeding frenzy of heat pump installers that pop up. Much like there was with solar panels. Especially as there's govt money in this.
How many of those installers will really know what they're doing, and how many will be opportunistic cowboys?

Mini rant!

As with spray foam roof insulation, our government's policies on all matters of renewable energy/insulation/house-building are aimed at maximising profit and very little to do with giving consumers cheap, reliable heating options. A huge amount of UK housing stock is too old and expensive to retrofit with the level of efficient insulation needed for ASP. Passive house technology has been around for over 40 years, but it doesn't suit the house-building lobby and the construction industry to invest in new methods.

1000s of houses have been built in my area in the last 20 years, 95% have only been built to EPC C standard, the industry minimum for insulation etc. When planning permission is sought it is usually quoted that solar panels will be standard, but this as always amended to be an optional (costly) extra. The latest development has all south-facing roofs but no solar panels will be fitted as "they place a burden of maintenance on buyers". Gas boilers will be fitted, despite the government's call for them to be banned in 4 years time. Bicycle store sheds though, count towards their "green" credentials.

Without increased wind and solar power, the UK has a finite supply of electricity, yet wants it as the sole power source for all new homes after 2025. Many of our power stations are working decades past their agreed lifespans, while Hinkley Point C won't be on line until 2025/6 and Sizewell C is still not past the planning stage with 9-11 years needed to construct it.

I suspect there may be some "slippage" with the 2025 cut-off for new gas boilers.

LV_426

ka7e said:

I guess what also bothers me about this, is that there will inevitably by a feeding frenzy of heat pump installers that pop up. Much like there was with solar panels. Especially as there's govt money in this.
How many of those installers will really know what they're doing, and how many will be opportunistic cowboys?

Mini rant!

As with spray foam roof insulation, our government's policies on all matters of renewable energy/insulation/house-building are aimed at maximising profit and very little to do with giving consumers cheap, reliable heating options. A huge amount of UK housing stock is too old and expensive to retrofit with the level of efficient insulation needed for ASP. Passive house technology has been around for over 40 years, but it doesn't suit the house-building lobby and the construction industry to invest in new methods.

1000s of houses have been built in my area in the last 20 years, 95% have only been built to EPC C standard, the industry minimum for insulation etc. When planning permission is sought it is usually quoted that solar panels will be standard, but this as always amended to be an optional (costly) extra. The latest development has all south-facing roofs but no solar panels will be fitted as "they place a burden of maintenance on buyers". Gas boilers will be fitted, despite the government's call for them to be banned in 4 years time. Bicycle store sheds though, count towards their "green" credentials.

Without increased wind and solar power, the UK has a finite supply of electricity, yet wants it as the sole power source for all new homes after 2025. Many of our power stations are working decades past their agreed lifespans, while Hinkley Point C won't be on line until 2025/6 and Sizewell C is still not past the planning stage with 9-11 years needed to construct it.

I suspect there may be some "slippage" with the 2025 cut-off for new gas boilers.

Great points there. I totally agree, this has not been thought through properly. There's no joined up plan, and of course this phasing out of gas usage means a significant extra demand for electricity. Where's all this extra energy being generated?
Interesting your point about solar panels. I've often wondered why new house builds don't include a PV array as standard. Seems like an obvious thing to mandate if the govt has such green credentials. It could even be subsidised. I'd rather see money ploughed into this, than a half baked scheme of mass installation of ASP on houses which are not suitable for them!
If all new build houses had solar capability, just think how much load that could take off the national grid.

knightstyle

I find it incredible that when we generate power we use heat and after generating we throw the heat away, look at the cooling towers and increase in river temperature.

TELLIT01

How we will heat is a very good question as from what I've read, the heat pump option is not viable for many people on cost alone.  Then there is the issue of where all the gubbins required goes.  Who has space for the pipework required for ground source?

LV_426

TELLIT01 said:

How we will heat is a very good question as from what I've read, the heat pump option is not viable for many people on cost alone.  Then there is the issue of where all the gubbins required goes.  Who has space for the pipework required for ground source?

Yes and as stated previously, ground source is much more expensive than air source.
I just think it's a big, big mistake going down this route, and people will get sucked in by the hype, being told that they cost peanuts to run. Heat pumps often need supplementary means to 'top up' the heat when they can't deliver what is required. So that'll be a hybrid system (using a gas boiler), or immersion heater - so watch your meter spin round when that kicks in!

It just seems to me that there's no really effective replacement for a gas boiler. Am I wrong?