Crypto Dabble.

Adyinvestment

Malkytheheed said:

Crypto threads shouldn't be in "savings and investments". Isn't there a gambling forum?

Seriously?

You either posted this to get a reaction or have not been reading the thread...either way pretty sad.

Scottex99

It is literally "easy". I already caveated that there a risks to consider with what platform you use, if you understand the asset that you are staking etc but the actual act of staking and getting paid couldn't be simpler.

Celsius pays 8.88% on USDT right now. Park the coins and get the interest every Monday paid to your wallet which then compounds on it's own. Done.

Can Celsius steal all your coins? Yes. Can they come under regulatory pressure? Yes. Can they mismanage all their funds and go bust? Yes.

But they have $10bn under management or so. I've had a chunk of coins there all year and made $3k in interest literally doing nothing. 

So yeah, it is easy. It's understand the market and the risk that is a hard bit. Plus there about another 100 ways to do this, both centralised and not. These rates aren't guaranteed like you said, but they have been here for around a year already. If they drop, you find another way that suits your risk/strategy

User232002

Malthusian said:

3) People in the speculative punts thread don't claim on a regular basis that the obscure small companies they're invested in will deliver "risk free" returns of "7-8% APY" (exact quote from this thread), and when challenged on this statement, blather "contango arbitrage woo woo, do your own research bro". It's even called "speculative punts".

I really regret even mentioning this. In hindsight, this board doesn't seem to have the prerequisite knowledge to process the general mechanics. Crypto is a nascent market which isn't as liquid as more traditional markets (its actually way more liquid than you would imagine though). This means that the market isn't as efficient, and therefore there are arbitrage plays to be made all over the place. For example, pretty often the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase is higher than other exchanges - so you can buy Bitcoin on another exchange and then sell it on Coinbase for a profit.* The exact method I was talking about was using the fact that there is a difference in price between the option price and the spot price of BTC, because the expectation of the market is that BTC will increase in price. This is exactly what google would have thrown up if you searched for 'contango' I imagine... You can trade this and capture this spread.

In terms of 'risk-free,' there are ways where you can do this and offset all the risk you take on. For example, you can purchase options via Deribit which is a crypto native options platform, at which point everyone would scream about counter party risk... So you can go and get your options from the CME instead, which has been around for 120 years... All such ways would cut in to the yield because offsetting risk isn't free, but it is doable if you know what to do and where to look. Again though, the more pertinent point here though really is; if you can't process all of this on your own simply from the words contango, arbitrage and options spreads - you really have no business assessing such things as counter party risk because your mathematical knowledge isnt up to scratch. 

In hindsight, the best way to play this is for most people here is to buy USD stablecoins and stick them in to some of these crypto 'banks' and let them execute these strategies on your behalf. I've never said this is entirely risk free, but the risk is orders of magnitude lower than what most normies would believe (which again brings me back to my point, that if you don't have a basic understanding of futures markets, you can't accurately assess counter party risk).

*Note: not risk free for normies because of the time between execution. Only bots can do this well.

Scottex99

Malthusian said:

The difference between the "speculative punts" thread and the crypto threads is:

1) Posts in the speculative punts thread are along the lines of "I think Twome Ninnashed Pharma could deliver massive profits if their wonderdrug gets approved." Not "TNP is the future of investing and all FTSE 350 companies are worthless and everyone who invests in them is going to be poor".

2) If TNP does go to the moon and make their investors rich, it will be because their wonderdrug turned out to be brilliant and created huge amounts of value. Not from other people losing money. Punters' money in == punters' money out.

3) People in the speculative punts thread don't claim on a regular basis that the obscure small companies they're invested in will deliver "risk free" returns of "7-8% APY" (exact quote from this thread), and when challenged on this statement, blather "contango arbitrage woo woo, do your own research bro". It's even called "speculative punts".

And this is called Crypto DABBLE.

i.e Could be worth a dabble or a punt. 

Whether that's £500 to one person or £50k to another is just relative to them.

If people are claiming it's the future of all investing then that's on them, that's about 1% of the people who are pro BTC on here

User232002

Linton said:

Both crypto and SPs are very different to Tesco.  Neither generate profits nor pay an inceom. Their price is purely justified by what someone else is prepared to pay for them - sometimes referred to as "the bigger fool" theory.  

Grossly incorrect. Uniswap is a decentralised exchange where you can provide a pair of tokens and let people trade between them. The code enables you to take a percentage of the transaction as a commission. Uniswap made $3.5M in fees yesterday that were all distributed back to its liquidity providers. You can buy other tokens where the value generated is given back to the token holders (for example, sushiswap charges the same fee as uniswap, but distributes the fees party to liquidity providers and partly to token holders). These aren't great fool theory trades, these are billion dollar revenue generating pieces of code.

Uniswap also has a treasury of several hundred million dollars that they use to give grants to people building interesting projects on the blockchain. 

You are making grand assumptions about things that you actually have no knowledge of.

https://cryptofees.info/

Malkytheheed

Scottex99 said:

Malkytheheed said:

Crypto threads shouldn't be in "savings and investments". Isn't there a gambling forum?

According to who, you?

It's cool to buy random individual stocks that swing 50%+ in either direction though, that's legit investing?

Don't believe in crypto? Don't read the threads, not difficult. There's a long running thread on here called "a Speculative Punt" are you posting the same on there?

Ofc its extremely volatile and nascent, that's been covered a million times. But for me I'm investing in the future of money and an industry that has a market cap of $2tn already. 

You can also easily make 10% APY on your coins, so that's the saving part sorted, obviously counterparty risk has to make a feature here in your decision on where to park capital.

Pretty boring people just showing up and writing it off with zero research

Em.... I'm not writing it off. I hold XRP, ETH and GRT. So you can get down from your high horse right away. 

Im saying that buying crypto is neither saving, not investing. It's gambling. Striaght up. And doesn't belong in this forum. Hence why your argument of "Don't read the threads" hold no water. Because I think the thread is in the wrong place. And that's my point. 

Scottex99

Create a gambling section and ask the admins to move it there then.

XRP, lol

User232002

Linton said:
So interest rates are not set by some evil cabal but rather by the natural operation of the worlds bond markets.  

Linton said:
Secondly the Bank of England has been buying gilts under Quantitative Easing and taking them out of the market so there are not enough to go round.  The BoE is now the largest holder of gilts.  So the majority of our government debt that people get so excited about is actually owed to us in the form of the BoE and our insurance and pension companies.

This doesn't sound like the natural operation of markets. It sounds like there is a big player in town doing some funny business which is affecting the prices for everyone else. You can't simultaneously argue that (1) The Government debt doesn't matter because its owed to the BoE, and (2) The BoE is operating normally as it would in any market. 

Linton said:
There are a large number of institutions such as pension and insurance companies that must buy gilts.  In fact any UK company/organisation that wants to hold large amounts of cash has little choice but to buy gilts as a safe prioxy - they can hardly go to a high street bank and deposit £100M;. 

For now. And the decade of record low interest rates has meant that those operating 60/40 portfolios have horrifically underfunded pension pots. What happens when these companies start to put money in to Bitcoin? If you don't believe that will ever happen, I will tell you that it already has. Between September 2020 and March 2021 several Australian and NZ pension funds put money in to crypto. In total it was only a hundred million dollars or so if I remember correctly; not significant for the amount, but quite significant for the types of funds that were buying I thought.

Linton said:
At the moment there is no causal link between interest rates and higher inflation.  Inflation has risen because there is a shortage of goods thanks to the global supply problems.  If we dont pay more and other people do who gets the goods?  But in other circumstances there can be a link.

Well, this is the party line - inflation is 'transitory.' But my belief is that although inflation rates are transitory, inflation itself is not. Prices might spike up 10% in one particular month, but those prices probably aren't going back down when inflation is 0% the next month. 

Linton said:
So interest rates are not set by some evil cabal but rather by the natural operation of the worlds bond markets.  Borrowing and lending takes place globally.  The UK government has only limited control over rates.

I don't believe anyone that is serious in crypto believes there is an evil cabal behind the scenes. We aren't all Max Keiser's. That said, I do believe that you can view crypto as a call option on the general incompetence of banks and governments. 

Michael121

Scottex99 said:

It is literally "easy". I already caveated that there a risks to consider with what platform you use, if you understand the asset that you are staking etc but the actual act of staking and getting paid couldn't be simpler.

Celsius pays 8.88% on USDT right now. Park the coins and get the interest every Monday paid to your wallet which then compounds on it's own. Done.

Can Celsius steal all your coins? Yes. Can they come under regulatory pressure? Yes. Can they mismanage all their funds and go bust? Yes.

But they have $10bn under management or so. I've had a chunk of coins there all year and made $3k in interest literally doing nothing. 

So yeah, it is easy. It's understand the market and the risk that is a hard bit. Plus there about another 100 ways to do this, both centralised and not. These rates aren't guaranteed like you said, but they have been here for around a year already. If they drop, you find another way that suits your risk/strategy

Kevin O'Leary said he was writing contracts on USDT for a lot less than that 8.88%. This is one of many reasons why i won't dabble with crypto, why is he taking less on writing contracts and then retail can get 8.88 from Celsius. Just seems highly risky to me. 

Vid
THIS Made Me Change My Mind About Bitcoin | Anthony Pompliano - YouTube

Linton

darren232002 said:

Linton said:

Both crypto and SPs are very different to Tesco.  Neither generate profits nor pay an inceom. Their price is purely justified by what someone else is prepared to pay for them - sometimes referred to as "the bigger fool" theory.  

Grossly incorrect. Uniswap is a decentralised exchange where you can provide a pair of tokens and let people trade between them. The code enables you to take a percentage of the transaction as a commission. Uniswap made $3.5M in fees yesterday that were all distributed back to its liquidity providers. You can buy other tokens where the value generated is given back to the token holders (for example, sushiswap charges the same fee as uniswap, but distributes the fees party to liquidity providers and partly to token holders). These aren't great fool theory trades, these are billion dollar revenue generating pieces of code.

Uniswap also has a treasury of several hundred million dollars that they use to give grants to people building interesting projects on the blockchain. 

You are making grand assumptions about things that you actually have no knowledge of.

https://cryptofees.info/

This does not sound like money generated by the cryptocurrencies but rather commission from trades. ie it is paid for by the people trading.   So it is just people within crypto-world paying each other for services.  The generator of profit is the exchange, not the currency.  The fact that the item being traded is crypto currency is incidental. 

 This is very dfferent to a Tesco share which represents your part-ownership of Tesco and so entitles you to some of Tescos profits.  It is new money from the point of view of the share market.