Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

InvesterJones

Zola. said:

Worth a watch at this time

This change has been talked about ever since China joined the WTO back in 2001 (and probably some time before then), has something happened that makes it more relevant at this time than previously?

Type_45

InvesterJones said:

Zola. said:

Worth a watch at this time

This change has been talked about ever since China joined the WTO back in 2001 (and probably some time before then), has something happened that makes it more relevant at this time than previously?

Twenty one years has happened. 

masonic

Type_45 said:

InvesterJones said:

Zola. said:

Worth a watch at this time

This change has been talked about ever since China joined the WTO back in 2001 (and probably some time before then), has something happened that makes it more relevant at this time than previously?

Twenty one years has happened. 

There are 78 more years to happen in this century alone. I've long thought China to present a good investment opportunity, but I'm in no rush to buy the dip in the Chinese market.

adindas

I love green Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100 is already green. S&P 500 is still red a little bit but there are still about two hours before the market close. Watch out tomorrow FOMC meeting. The expectation is interest rate to hike 50 basis point, when they indicate to interest rate hike of 75 basis point, prepare the market might tank again.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/13/fed-reportedly-may-hike-rates-by-three-quarters-of-a-point-this-week.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bad-inflation-reports-raise-odds-of-surprise-0-75-percentage-point-rate-rise-this-week-11655147927

InvesterJones

Type_45 said:

InvesterJones said:

Zola. said:

Worth a watch at this time

This change has been talked about ever since China joined the WTO back in 2001 (and probably some time before then), has something happened that makes it more relevant at this time than previously?

Twenty one years has happened. 

What's special about 21 years? Is that significantly different to 20 or 22 years?

coastline

No doubt data driven this year and probably for months to come. Bond yields up in the last week with expectations of higher rates. 2.7% to 3.4%. Could even hit 4% next year but let's see ?

 United States Government Bond 10Y - 2022 Data - 1912-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast (tradingeconomics.com)

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Goldman Joins 75bps Rate Hike Bandwagon, Warns It Will Trigger Recession | ZeroHedge

Tea leaves show indicators oversold in weekly timeframe but to be fair even with the poor inflation figures the index isn't that far away from last months low of 3800 now at 3730 ish. Has the market absorbed the latest set back well it hasn't slumped.? Early days and more data needed that's for sure. Fed and rates up next.

$SPX | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com

I've mentioned the monthly charts don't always play out but in the summary below looking at the Stochastic it's heading there. Nasdaq and R2K at the oversold levels and SP , DOW and others not too far away. A choppy summer without major falls would bring things into line without too much damage to the levels. A rare event when the monthly is oversold.

Trading Sunset: Weekend update - US equity indexes

Found a link to rates and valuations . In Figure 1 rates have been higher than 5-6% before valuations start to fall below P/E 15. Current forward P/E is around 16 . $230 earnings and 3800 on the SP500. We can only see if earnings hold up. ?

Current Market Valuation - S&P500 P/E Ratio vs Interest Rates

InvesterJones

coastline said:

Found a link to rates and valuations . In Figure 1 rates have been higher than 5-6% before valuations start to fall below P/E 15. Current forward P/E is around 16 . $230 earnings and 3800 on the SP500. We can only see if earnings hold up. ?

Current Market Valuation - S&P500 P/E Ratio vs Interest Rates

That's the question though isn't it? Fed may be happy to induce recession in order to get inflation under control (lesser long term pain), at which point earnings could drop.

Type_45

Morgan Stanley's co-president says expect 'fire and ice' as a massive shift in markets gets underway

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-outlook-inflation-recession-interest-rates-morgan-stanley-2022-6?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Type_45

Anyone heard of the concept of "Ice Nine" in relation to the financial market?

Ice Nine is a fictional substance which if you put just one drop into the ocean the entire ocean, and any water connected to it, will freeze.

An Ice Nine of the financial system means that the whole thing would be frozen.  All the banks, all the markets.  

Alistair31

Type_45 said:

Anyone heard of the concept of "Ice Nine" in relation to the financial market?

Ice Nine is a fictional substance which if you put just one drop into the ocean the entire ocean, and any water connected to it, will freeze.

An Ice Nine of the financial system means that the whole thing would be frozen.  All the banks, all the markets.  

Yes, you are not the first to correlate a fictional book story with real life financial markets, but as there’s no precedent then I’m not sure what your point is?

It’s not like your own portfolio is positioned for such a scenario.

Oh and FTSE100 up 1.7% on opening, ICYMI.