Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

aroominyork

If the absence of migrant labour shines a light on industries where working conditions are sub-standard or not properly regulated, that is a good thing. But replacing migrant labourers who are doing low end jobs with Brits by increasing wages on a supply/demand basis is not about rebalancing the economy; it’s shrinking the economy and making this a poorer country. Migrants do jobs other people do not want to do – that is the way many developed economies work and I have no problem with that; it is good for the country and, so long as working conditions are decent, it provides jobs and money sent home to poorer countries. The types of job I mentioned are never going to be attractive – not all jobs are – so if we get into wage inflation until, basically, we make Brits offers they cannot refuse to do low end jobs, something has to give. And that something is that fewer Brits are available for the higher end jobs they would otherwise be doing. That shrinks the economy and means we do not need as highly skilled a British workforce (hence fewer graduate qualifications are needed).

tranquility1

MK62 said:

The economy will rebalance to the new realities.....but this rebalancing can be disruptive and painful.....pretty much what we are seeing now. 

We haven't seen anything yet.  It hasn't even got started.

aroominyork

tranquility1 said:

MK62 said:

The economy will rebalance to the new realities.....but this rebalancing can be disruptive and painful.....pretty much what we are seeing now. 

We haven't seen anything yet.  It hasn't even got started.

I'm glad to see you have downgraded your terror level from a global conspiracy of the rich and powerful, to a mere painful post-Brexit economic relabancing.

MK62

The economy WILL rebalance.....it's unavoidable.....I'm not commenting either way on the pros and cons of migrant labour, or the attractiveness of certain jobs.....I'm merely stating that whatever happens the economy will adjust to the new realities, and sometimes those adjustments will not be seamless.
The economy might shrink.....or it might grow.....that doesn't alter the basic fact that either way it will rebalance the new realities in place.

On the subject of making jobs more attractive by offering higher pay.....yes, something will give.....and the economy will adjust to that......but the bottom line is that if we (we as in the collective national we) want or need a job doing, then we will either have to pay whatever it takes to get someone to do it or else find alternative ways of doing it.....or learn to do without it.......perhaps it's cheap migrant labour which has distorted our view of the true value of certain jobs.

aroominyork

You make it sound like everything will be OK once the economy rebalances. I'm not denying the economy will find its balance - my point is it will be with a smaller economy, less skilled, a lower tax take, worse public services and more deprivation. I am not interested in saying "Yes, but at least it will be balanced ".

[Deleted User]

aroominyork said:

You make it sound like everything will be OK once the economy rebalances. I'm not denying the economy will find its balance - my point is it will be with a smaller economy, less skilled, a lower tax take, worse public services and more deprivation. I am not interested in saying "Yes, but at least it will be balanced ".

We will have to wait and see about that. The fact remains that the UK is an attractive country for people to move to, and many can still move here to work if they meet the criteria of high skill individuals. The government may also adjust the immigration rules to allow certain workers in, within a limit of requirements. The UK is, and will always be, a destination for many. As is America.

talexuser

All reputable economists predicted several points off trend GDP for the next decade or so because of Brexit and the "rebalancing" we are seeing now is just a part of that. September saw the second largest selling off of UK funds ever, not much evidence of the boom because of low valuations predicted yet. And how higher wages without any productivity increases will not lead to more inflation is a mystery to me.

MK62

aroominyork said:

You make it sound like everything will be OK once the economy rebalances. I'm not denying the economy will find its balance - my point is it will be with a smaller economy, less skilled, a lower tax take, worse public services and more deprivation. I am not interested in saying "Yes, but at least it will be balanced ".

I didn't say it would all be OK.....that's something of a relative term.....it will be a bit different though.
Quite how increasing pay for some workers leads to a smaller economy, a less skilled workforce, lower tax takeworse public services and increased deprivation, I'm really not sure I follow that argument......getting more people into work at decent pay levels might just make things a bit better in the long run.........

Type_45

lozzy1965 said:

tranquility1 said:

lozzy1965 said:

tranquility1 said:

lozzy1965 said:

tranquility1 said:

Linton said:

tranquility1 said:

Linton said:

tranquility1 said:

Linton said:

tranquility1 said:

The central banks cannot reduce or raise interest rates.  All they can do is print money.

This financial system is broken beyond repair.  It will be replaced very soon.

The powers that be are filling their boots with loot, and they have arranged ways to transition with their wealth.


I am just shocked that any of you can look at the situation and not see what we are on the cusp of.

Perhaps you can tell us what we are on the cusp of?  And when will whatever it is that cusps do happen?  Where can the powers that be transition to and what good will their wealth do them there?  All assets except food, weapons and shelter will be worthless.

If things are as bad as you seem to think they are what anyone does with their investments/savings is totally irrelevent. So why post here?  Or do anything else come to that.  Why not just sit in a darkened room and wait for the inevitable?

On the other hand you could be wrong.

We are on the cusp of a global financial meltdown.  The collapse of currencies.  The end of high street banks.  I think it will take place this winter.  Possibly even in late October.  The powers that be can preserve their wealth in hard assets (land, property, precious metals etc).  This will mean they have money when the transition to the new financial system occurs.  The average Joe will lose much of what they have as their asset prices collapse and their inflated money is worthless. 

I'm here because I'm curious as to what is being discussed, I'm bored, and I enjoy posting here.  I am not the "sit in a dark room type".  I am preparing.

Hope that answers your questions.

If your plans are based on surviving the end of world as we know it they seem somewhat inadequate. A very full store cupboard would perhaps support a few weeks of unhealthy eating. Now what about water? Heating? Winter will soon be here.

How will you sell your gold? The bullion dealers would be closed. Even if they weren’t and you could actually get to their premises what would they give you? A sackful of worthless £50 notes though the banks will be closed so perhaps not. So you are reduced to barter with your neighbours. What would they give you in exchange?  A tin of beans could be worth more than a gold bar.  With no electricity and the internet down what good would your crypto be?

I am afraid you will be in the queue for the military-run soup kitchens along with everyone else.

ISTM people take all the benefits of modern civilisation for granted.  They are all ultimately based on the global financial system.  If that fails all bets are off.

If you want to prepare for the end of the world you really need to take it seriously.

What do you do if in 6 months time nothing has happened? 

Gold isn't for use during the collapse.  Gold is a store of wealth which will enable you to buy assets when the new financial system is established. 

Perhaps your money in the bank will be carried over.  Perhaps it will be devalued.  Perhaps it will disappear.  Gold solves that problem and will store wealth no matter what happens.  But you certainly don't trade it for a tin of beans.  It has far more value when everything settles down and people have food in their cupboards again.  If anything, silver is better for bartering.  In reality things like lighters, bin bags and alcohol are what people will be in need of, and these are more appropriate things to keep in stock if all the shops are shut for a prolonged period.


I do agree that if society collapses most people (myself included) are screwed.  But you can give yourself a a better chance by preparing.

Like I said, people take too much for granted.  Things that just happen now are predicated on vast and hugely complex global organisational and physical networks.   Assume the world's currencies and financial systems collapse and the banks all go bust.  Your savings are the least of your problems.  A far bigger problem is the effect on companies and on movement of cash around the world

The following morning following the collapse will you go into work?  Why?  You won't be paid.  Your employer wont have any cash and wont have any mechanism to give it to you.  In any case you would probably want to stay at home guarding your gold and food stores,  The same will apply to those people who run the essential, and non essential services.  So no electricity, no communications etc etc except perhaps those run by the military if discipline can be maintained. There arent any imports so if some vital part breaks you wont be able to replace it from halfway across the world.

Somehow the world's leaders get together, assuming they have any power.  How do they agree the New Order?  If there is a new global currency I guess it would be called the Yuan.

How is it implemented?  The computer systems running finances across the world are tied into the existing currencies and the existing financial networks.  For example money transfer, loans, insurance, taxes, payroll, pensions  etc etc.  You, at best, are talking about a major rewrite, more likely a total redesign from scratch.  There arent the staff to do that.  Before that work started you would need international agreement on interfaces and then the technical specification.  But there arent the staff nor the organisation to do that either.  Suppose we do get that far then there's the nuts and bolts - all the companies who would do the work have collapsed in the meantime.  The infrastructure wont exist to create new ones.

So it could easily be decades of chaos before a new financial system could be fully implemented.  I hope you have a large food cupboard.

I think the new financial system has already been put together.  That's why they are purposely running this one into the ground.  It's all in place.  What isn't in place yet are the CBDCs.  That will hold things up.  However, the collapse may happen sooner than they planned with Evergrande due to default on 24 October.

And the global elite, who already have all the power and the capability to set all this up without any of the stupid masses knowing about it, and can run their lives as they wish and do absolutely anything they want to, want to change their current set up to a new world order because...

Because this financial system has come to an end.  They don't have any choice.

OK, so ignoring the fact that they are so powerful that they can keep their new system hidden from the masses, but can't prevent the current system from crashing.  A current system which keeps them in power AND they can also keep that fact hidden from the masses.  We are back to your "the current system will have crashed by the end of the year, 100%" comment from a while back (I am paraphrasing, but that was the gist of it - the key being 100%).
So will you be on here on the first of January saying ,"OK guys, I was wrong, I'm pleased I was wrong, but never the less I was."
Or will there be a new black swan event you profess to know all about, that the global elite have elaborate plans for that they have managed to keep quiet from the masses?

Have you ever heard the phrase "what's more likely"?

Yes I stand by my view that a crash will happen this year.  Before the end of this month is the most likely time.  And I will come on here admit I got the timing wrong if it hasn't happened by January.

But even if it doesn't happen this year, this financial system has reached the end of it's life and a crash and new financial system is absolutely coming. 

Not 100% by the end of the year then!

They may kick it down the road until the CBDCs are ready.  That would probably be their preference because that would neatly replace the current rapidly-worthless currencies.  But their hand may be forced by world events.  Notably China, which is in big trouble and the contagion from that could collapse the global economy at any point now.  

China's economy and the global economy are primed for collapse.  The only question is how controlled the collapse is.  But I think the powers that be want the collapse to be messy and painful because they then have an excuse to use the tools they want to use (CBDC and UBI) for the "greater good".  The collapse will only be painful and messy for us.  They won't feel a pinch.  They will enrich themselves even further.  They and we are not playing the same game.

Were you banned by the MODS as Type_45 by any chance? 

Let's take this one step at a time shall we?  Question 1....

'They' are so powerful at the moment that 'they' won't feel the pinch.  But 'they' are happy to see or allow the 'collapse' to happen so 'they' can enrich themselves even further.  Why would 'they' want to do that?  Are 'they' not happy with the unimaginable riches and power 'they' already have?

So... I don't re-enforce your world views, so obviously my views are wrong... And then I don't post for a while... And you conclude I was (quite rightly, in your opinion) banned...

aroominyork

MK62 said:

aroominyork said:

You make it sound like everything will be OK once the economy rebalances. I'm not denying the economy will find its balance - my point is it will be with a smaller economy, less skilled, a lower tax take, worse public services and more deprivation. I am not interested in saying "Yes, but at least it will be balanced ".

I didn't say it would all be OK.....that's something of a relative term.....it will be a bit different though.
Quite how increasing pay for some workers leads to a smaller economy, a less skilled workforce, lower tax takeworse public services and increased deprivation, I'm really not sure I follow that argument......getting more people into work at decent pay levels might just make things a bit better in the long run.........

The short answer is because migrant workers add to economic activity, pay taxes and generally do not use large amounts of public services. So we will have less economic activity, a lower tax take (nb talexuser's comment about higher wages without increased productivity) but not much reduction in demand for public services.